Global Biodiversity Outlook 3

1

• The information behind GBO-3
• 110 National Reports
• Biodiversity Indicators Partnership
• Biodiversity Futures Study
• 500 scientific papers
• Open review process

2
GBO-3 is an output of the processes under the
Convention. Parties to the Convention, other
Governments, and observer organizations have
shaped the Outlook GBO-3 has been prepared by
the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological
Diversity, in close collaboration UNEP-WCMC. The
production of GBO-3 was enabled by financial
contributions from Canada, the European Union,
Germany, Japan, Spain and the United Kingdom, as
well as UNEP.
3
Structure

• Biodiversity in 2010
• Biodiversity Futures for the 21st Century
• Towards a Strategy for Reducing Biodiversity
  Loss

4
2010 Biodiversity Target
to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of
the current rate of biodiversity loss at the
global, regional and national level as a
contribution to poverty alleviation and to the
benefit of all life on Earth
5
The 2010 Biodiversity Target has not been met

• No sub-target completely achieved
• Most indicators negative
• No government claims success
• Direct pressures constant or increasing

6

• The global Living Planet Index (LPI), has
  declined by more than 30 since 1970,
• The Tropical LPI has declined by almost 60.
• The Temperate LPI showed an increase of 15,
  reflecting the recovery of some species
  populations in temperate regions

Source WWF/ZSL
Source WWF/ZSL
7

• The Red List Index (RLI) for all these species
  groups is decreasing.
• Coral species are moving most rapidly towards
  greater extinction risk
• Amphibians are, on average, the group most
  threatened.

Source IUCN
8
Livestock breeds at risk
Source FAO
9
Protected areas increasing
Source UNEP-WCMC
Source UNEP-WCMC
10
but large areas still under-represented
Source UNEP-WCMC
11
Trends in habitats are varied but show declines
over all

• Wetlands, salt marshes, coral reefs, seagrass
  beds and sea ice continue to decline
• Extensive fragmentation of forests and rivers
• Mangrove decline slowing (except in Asia)
• The condition of many terrestrial habitats is
  deteriorating (degrading)

Source NSIDC
12
Amazon loss slowing in Brazil
Source INPE
13
State
Pressure
Response
Source Butchart etal 2010
14
Trends shown by agreed indicators of progress
towards the 2010 biodiversity target
15
Key Findings

• Projections show continuing and accelerating
  extinctions, habitat loss, changes in
  distribution and abundance of biodiversity
• High risk of dramatic biodiversity loss and
  degradation of services from tipping points
• Loss preventable and even reversible with strong,
  urgent action

16
What is a tipping point?
Threshold
Time lag
Self-perpetuating
Long lasting/hard to reverse
17
Tipping Point Amazon dieback
Alternative Path
Current Path

• Widespread shift from forest to savanna resulting
  from the Interaction of deforestation, climate
  change and fires
• Becomes more likely at 20-30 deforestation
• Self-perpetuating
• Regional rainfall and global climate impacts,
  massive biodiversity loss

• Keep deforestation below 20-30 of original
  forest area
• Minimize use of fire for clearing
• Keep global climate warming below 2-3 degrees

18
Tipping Points Freshwater eutrophication
Current Path
Alternative Path

• Reduce nutrient inputs from sewage, detergents
  and agriculture
• Reforestation of watersheds
• Restoration of wetlands
• Economic incentives to close nutrient cycle on
  farms

• The buildup of nutrients from fertilizers and
  sewage shifts freshwater bodies into a eutrophic
  state causing
• Low oxygen levels and widespread kills of plants,
  fish, invertebrates
• Loss of nutrition from fisheries, toxic blooms
  make water unfit for drinking or recreation

19
Tipping Points Coral reef collapse
Current Path
Alternative Path

• Bleaching severe with temperature rise great than
  ca. 2oC
• Ocean acidification prevents corals forming
  skeletons
• Reefs become degraded and algae-dominated
• Livelihood threat to hundreds of millions through
  loss of fisheries and tourism

• Reduce local stressors including
• Destructive fishing practices
• Coastal pollution
• Over-exploitation of herbivores such as sea
  urchins and fish
• Strict climate mitigation to keep CO2 levels
  below 450 ppm and 2oC.

20
Broadening action on biodiversity
21
There is a greater range of options than
previously recognized
Source Leadley and Pereira etal 2010
22
Scenarios for land use
Business as usual
Carbon tax including land use
Carbon tax on fossil fuels and industry only
Source Wise etal 2009
23
Address climate change and biodiversity loss in
close co-ordination, and with equal priority, if
the most severe impacts of each are to be avoided.
24
Key strategy elements

• Greater efficiency in use of land, energy and
  fresh water to meet growing demand
• Use of market incentives and avoidance of
  perverse subsidies
• Strategic planning
• Restoration of ecosystems
• Equitable sharing of benefits from use of and
  access to genetic resources and associated
  traditional knowledge
• Support and facilitate local action
• Communication, education and awareness-raising

25
The action taken over the next decade or two will
determine whether the relatively stable
environmental conditions on which human
civilization has depended for the past 10,000
years will continue beyond this century. If we
fail to use this opportunity, many ecosystems on
the planet will move into new, unprecedented
states in which the capacity to provide for the
needs of present and future generations is highly
uncertain.
26
For further information on Global Biodiversity
Outlook 3 and related products please
see www.cbd.int/GBO3