DESIGNING EARTHLINGS

1
DESIGNING EARTHLINGS UNIFYING REASON AND
VALUES
TO ADDRESS THE
CHALLENGES WE FACE PETER
EISENBERGER
2
OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE
CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE -
GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP
THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY -
DISTINCTION BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS -
HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD
DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET -
UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS -
CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON
DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS
CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION -
IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT
EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS
- CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED
DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL
ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO
CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS
BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION
OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS
3
THE EARTH HUMAN SYSTEM Before Human Dominance

• OUR EVOLUTIONARY HISTORY
• HOMO GENUS EVOLVED FOR 7,000,000 YEARS-
  SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST(SOF)
• - HOMO SAPIENS FOR200,000 YEARS- 95 IN SOF
  FRAMEWORK
• LIMITED HUNTER GATHERER SOCIAL
  ORGANIZATION
• NO KNOWLEDGE AT GLOBAL SCALE OR
  OF BRAINS WORKINGS
• NO CAPABILITY TO ALTER NATURE
  GLOBALLY
• - SINCE LAST ICE AGE (13000 YA)-
  TOOLS/CHANGING SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS
• INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION INITIATES A MAJOR
  TRANSFORMATION
• - ENERGY TO DO WORK
• - IMPROVED TRANSPORTATION/COMMUNICATIONS/CONNE
  CTIVITY
• - RAPID GROWTH IN KNOWLEDGE

4
GLOBAL INFLUENCE OF HUMANS CHANGING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE - GLOBAL WARMING- 385PPM CO2
- REDUCING OF STRATOSPHERIC OZONE LAYER -
POLLUTION USE OF NATURAL RESOURCES - 8 OF
FRESHWATER USED BY HUMANS - 11 OF SURFACE
AREA - 30 OF FERTILE SOILS HAVE BEEN LOST
- MORE MINERALS MOVED BY HUMANS THAN BY NATURE
- OVER 50 OF THE SUNS NET PRIMARY
PRODUCTIVITY - LOSS OF FORESTS THROUGH
LOGGING AT 1 PER YEAR - BIODIVERSITY
LOSS(ESTIMATE 1000 TIMES BACKGROUND) CONCLUSIONS
- WE ARE HAVING GLOBAL IMPACT - DRIVEN
BY USE OF KNOWLEDGE TO MEET OUR NEEDS
ENERGY TO DO WORK
TRANSPORTATION/COMMUNICATION -
KNOWLEDGE IS A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD NOTE-
POPULATION/ECONOMIC GROWTH TO CAUSE A 5 TO 10
TIMES INCREASE IN OUR EFFORTS THIS CENTURY! WE
CAN USE OUR KNOWLEDGE TO MEET OUR NEEDS BUT.?
5
THE EARTH HUMAN SYSTEM After Human Dominance

• WE ARE A VERY SUCCESSFUL SPECIES/ WE ARE A GLOBAL
  FORCE
• POULATION HAS INCREASED GREATLY/LIFESPAN BY
  ABOUT 3
• OUR USE OF KNOWLEDGE ENABLES US TO HAVE GLOBAL
  IMPACTS
• - WE CAN CHANGE THE COURSE OF FUTURE EVOLUTION
• YET WE ARE STILL AT RISK FROM A CHANGING PLANET
• - OUR KNOWLEDGE HAS IDENTIFIED GLOBLAL THREATS TO
  LIFE
• WE ARE SUCCESSFUL BUT WE NEED TO CHANGE (AGAIN)
• - TO ADDRESS THE GLOBAL THREATS LIFE FACES
• - TO MAKE SURE WE ARE NOT A GLOBAL THREAT
  OURSELVES

6
WHAT ARE THE GLOBAL THREATS WE FACE NATURE
DRIVEN GLOBAL THREATS - ASTEROIDS
- CLIMATE CHANGE/ CATASTROPHIC CHANGE IN
ATMOSPHERE - SUPER VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
- DISEASES - ECOSYSTEM
COLLAPSE HUMAN (also part of nature) GLOBAL
THREATS - CHANGING THE
ATMOSPHERE/CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY USE POLLUTION
NUCLEAR WINTER -
BIODIVERSITY LOSS/ECOSYSTEM COLLAPSE
ALTERING ECOSYSTEMS TO MEET OUR NEEDS
GENETICALLY MODIFIED
PRODUCTS - NEW VIRUSES/DISEASES
NEW EXPOSURE/INCREASED
VULNERABLITY BIOLOGICAL
WARFARE
NO NEW TYPE OF THREAT TO PLANET
BY HUMANS WE ARE PART OF NATURE CHALLENGE IS
CO-EVOLUTION OF OUR PLANET AND OURSELVES IN THE
PRESENCE OF GLOBAL THREATS TO ALL LIFE
7
THE EARTH HUMAN SYSTEM Co-evolution
I, WE, THREAT(IWT) FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK -
INDIVIDUALS (I) HAVE VIEW OF THEIR REALITY/
REFERENCE FRAME - KNOWLEDGE/BELIEFS DEFINE
VALUES AND SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS (WE) -
KNOWLEDGE/BELIEFS DEFINE THE THREATS TO OUR
SURVIVAL - KNOWLEDGE/BELIEFS/VALUES USEDTO
MAKE DECISIONS ABOUT THREATS - WE USE OUR
INSTITUTIONS TO IMPLEMENT THEM CRITICAL ROLE OF
OUR BRAIN - ABILITY TO USE KNOWLEDGE TO
PLAN FOR THE DISTANT FUTURE -
DEFINES/CONSTRAINS OUR VIEW OF REALITY/REFERENCE
FRAME - ABILITY TO LEARN/INNOVATE TO CHANGE
IWT FRAMEWORK ITSELF
REFERENCE FRAME, VALUES, SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS
8
CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGE HOW DOES IWT FEEDBACK
FRAMEWORK NEED TO CHANGE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
TO PREVENT THE DESTRUCTION/EXTINCTION TO OUR
SPECIES AND OTHER LIFE FROM THE GLOBAL THREATS
WE BOTH FACE ISSUES TO DEFINE NEW IWT FEEDBACK
FRAMEWORK PHILOSOPHICAL/FUNDAMENTAL
- IS IT OUR ROLE/ PURPOSE? ARE WE STEWARDS OF THE
PLANET? - SHOULD WE REMOVE OUR IMPACT
ON NATURE? - CAN WE PREVENT THE
THREATS DESTRUCTION/EXTINCTIONS? ETHICAL
- IS IT WRONG FOR US TO IMPOSE OUR DESIGNS?
- HOW DOES ONE DECIDE WHO WINS AND LOSES?
- DO OUR VALUES NEED TO CHANGE?
TACTICAL - HOW CAN WE MAKE GOOD
DECISIONS? - HOW CAN WE BEST ORGANIZE
OURSELVES? PERSONAL - WILL WE BE
HAPPY AND FULFILLED IN THE NEW IWT FRAMEWORK
? THIS TALK WILL ADDRESS QUESTIONS
GENERALLY WILL DEFINE A NEW IWT FEEDBACK
FRAMEWORK WILL APPLY TO CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT
9
MAJOR ASSERTION WE ALREADY HAVE ENOUGH
KNOWLEDGE OF OUR PLANET AND OURSELVES TO KNOW HOW
WE HAVE TO CHANGE THE IWT FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK SO
WE USE OUR POWERFUL KNOWLEDGE TO DEFEND AGAINST
THE GLOBAL THREATS LIFE FACES CHANGE DIFFERENT
THAN PROPOSED BY OTHERS -
ENVIRONMENTALISTS- WE ARE THE BIGGEST THREAT
- CAPITALISTS- WE DO NOT NEED TO
CHANGE DESIGNING EARTHLINGS WE ARE NOT THE
VILLIANS - WE ARE THE STEWARDS BUT WE DO NEED TO
CHANGE THE IWT TRANSITION HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR
US ALL IT CAN ALSO BRING MORE MEANING TO ALL OUR
LIVES
10
OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE
CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE -
GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP
THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY -
DISTINCTION BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS -
HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD
DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET -
UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS -
CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON
DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS
CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION -
IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT
EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS
- CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED
DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL
ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO
CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS
BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION
OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS
11

• BASIC CONCEPTS
• KNOWLEDGE GAP THREAT
• THE THREAT CREATED BY THE HIGH RATE OF CURRENT
  HUMAN KNOWLEDGE DRIVEN CHANGES
• COMPARED TO THE SLOW RATE OF EVOLUTIONARY AND
  SOCIAL CHANGES
• KNOWLEDGE IS A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD
• THE BASIS FOR OUR SUCCESS/CAUSES DESTRUCTION
• NUCLEAR ENERGY
• THE SINGULARITY-LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS
  KURZWEIL
• - BERKELEY STUDY-2000 DOUBLING TIME FOR
  KNOWLEDGE THREE YEARS
• - BY 2020 DOUBLING TIME FOR KNOWLEDGE 7 MONTHS
• CAN IWT FEEDBACK USE OUR POWERFUL KNOWLEDGE
  WISELY?

12
LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE THE LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE IS
AS IMPORTANT AS WHAT WE KNOW - NOT
EVERYTHING IS KNOWABLE -
BELIEFS/SPECULATIONS ARE NECESSARY MAIN
KNOWLEDGE BASED LIMITATIONS -
GODEL NO LOGICAL SYSTEM IS BOTH CONSISTENT AND
COMPLETE RECURSIVE QUESTIONS HAVE NO ANSWER(I
AM LYING) - COMPLEX SYSTEMS
FUTURE TIME EVOLUTION INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE
DO HAVE REGULAR PATTERNS- CHAOTIC ATTRACTORS
CAN PREPARE FOR AND ANTICIPATE DESTRUCTIVE
TRANSITIONS HUMAN
UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - WE ARE
CONSTRAINED BY GODEL - OUR REFERENCE
FRAME WILL DETERMINE OUR DECISIONS -
WE CANNOT DEFINE OUR REALITY INDEPENDENT OF OUR
BRAIN - OUR RELATIONSHIP TO REALITY
IS RECURSIVE / THE MOVIE THE MATRIX CO-EVOLUTION
ISSUES/COMPLEX EARTH/HUMAN SYSTEM -
THE FUTURE- UNTESTABLE/UNKNOWABLE/UNPREDICTABLE
- MEASURE THE STATE OF THE PLANET/EARLY
WARNING - DEVELOP DEFENSES AGAINST
POSSIBLE DESTRUCTIVE TRANSITIONS REGIONAL
EXAMPLE- 100 YEAR FLOOD EL NINO -
DECISIONS CONSTRAINED BY REFERENCE FRAME
NEW ACTIVIST VERSIONS OF DESCARTES I THINK
THEREFORE I AM - WHAT I(WE) THINK
DETERMINES WHAT I(WE)DO - WHAT I(WE)
DO DETERMINES OUR FUTURE
13

• GLOBAL WARMING ISSUES
• KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS
• IS THE PLANET WARMING ?
• - WARMING IS WELL DEFINED
• - CAN MAKE MEASUREMENTS/WARMING IS
  OCCURING
• - EMPERICAL KNOWLEDGE
• ARE HUMANS CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING?
• - INCREASING CARBON DIOXIDE CAN INCREASE
  TEMPERATURE
• GREENHOUSE EFFECT CAN BE
  DEMONSTATED IN EXPERIMENTS
• - IN COMPLEX SYSTEM PREDICTIVE CAUSALITY
  NOT POSSIBLE
• IN THE PAST CO2 INCREASES
  FOLLOWED WARMING
• - CURRENT MODELS ATTEMPTING TO PROVIDE A
  PRIORI KNOWLEDGE LIMITED
• MAY BE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP
  EARLY WARNING
• - CURRENT STATUS- LITTLE KNOWLEDGE AND A
  LOT OF BELIEF/VALUES
• - EINSTEIN EFFECT/GROUP THINK IN SCIENCE
• IS CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING A THREAT?

14
OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE
CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE -
GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP
THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY -
HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD
DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET -
UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS -
CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON
DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS
CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION -
IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT
EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS
- CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED
DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL
ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO
CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS
BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION
OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS
15

KNOWLEDGE OF THE PAST HISTORY OF OUR
PLANET FORMATION OF PLANET EARTH
TIMELINE -BIG BANG-13,700 MILLION YEARS AGO
(MYA) -EARTH-4,550 MYA-EXPLOSION OF AN EARLIER
STAR -BOMBARDMENT OF EARTH-FORMATION OF MOON-TILL
3,900 MYA -EARLIEST LIFE-3,465 MYA FORMATION
PROCESS -INITIALLY HEATS UP DUE TO BOMBARDMENT
AND RADIOACTIVITY -RESULTS IN MELTED CORE ,
COOLED OUTER SKIN, AND CONTINENTS -RADIOACTIVE
HEATING DRIVES MOVEMENT OF CONTINENTS TODAY
CAUSE OF VOLCANOES/EARTHQUAKES -HEATING
CAUSED BIG BURP GIVING EARTH ITS INITIAL
ATMOSPHERE ANOTHER BURP 55MYA FROM
METHANE TRAPPED IN OCEAN CAUSED
GLOBAL WARMING OF 5 DEGREES CELSIUS CREATION
BY DESTRUCTION NATURE IS MAGNIFICENT BUT
CERTAINLY NOT BENIGN PERSPECTIVE FOR NEW IWT
16

MAJOR PATTERNS CLEAR-DETAILS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE - MICROBES ONLY FOR FIRST 3
BILLION YEARS OF LIFE - BASIC LIFE
MECHANISMS EVOLVED IN MICROBES
REPRODUCTION /ENERGY PRODUCTION METHODS -
LIFE EVOLVES BY MERGERS/HOC GENES -
HUMANS VERY RECENT MICROBE
DESIGNS FOR REPRODUCTION/ENERGY CONVERSION
HOW DID LIFE EVOLVE IN THE
PRESENCE OF GLOBAL THREATS?
17

SOURCES OF NON-HUMAN CHANGES CAUSES OF PAST
EXTINCTIONS
CLIMATE CHANGE/GLACIATION HAS CAUSED
EXTINCTIONS - ROTATION IN ELIPTICAL ORBIT AROUND
THE SUN- ONE YEAR - SEASONS CAUSED BY TILT OF
EARTHS AXES IN SOLAR PLANE - WINTER AND SUMMER
VARY IN CLOSENESS TO SUN- 21000 YEARS - CHANGE
IN DIRECTION OF TILT OF EARTH AXES- 41 THOUSAND
YEARS - CHANGE IN ORBIT ELLIPTICITY FROM 0 TO 9
-100 THOUSAND YEARS - 13,OOO YEARS AGO NEW YORK
UNDER A GLACIER ASTEROID/COMET THREAT HAS CAUSED
EXTINCTIONS - MILLIONS OF MASSIVE OBJECTS WITH
IRREGULAR PATHS - DINOSAUR EXTINCTION SIZE OBJECT
EVERY 100 MILLION YEARS SUPER VOLCANOES HAVE
CAUSED EXTINCTIONS - HEATING OF CORE BY
RADIOACTIVITY-CONTINENTAL DRIFT - MASSIVE
ERUPTIONS(gt1000 KM3 ) LARGE IGNEOUS PROVINCES
(106 KM3 ) - 1000 TIMES MORE POWERFUL THAN MOUNT
ST. HELENS ECOSYSTEM CHANGES HAVE CAUSED
EXTINCTIONS - GLOBAL DOMINATING
SPECIE-CYANOBACTERIA
ALTERED ATMOSPHERE
NEW WAY TO
HARNESS ENERGY/OXYGEN
ANALOGY TO OUR IMPACT TODAY

ALL THESE THREATS WILL HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE
18

MAJOR EXTINCTIONS/CAUSES
EXTINCTIONCAUSES a CLIMATE CHANGE b UNKNOWN c
COMBINATION OF ASTEROID,VOLCANISM, CLIMATE CHANGE
d SUPERVOLCANOE-CLIMATE CHANGE e
ASTEROID-CLIMATE CHANGE- DINOSAURS HUMAN
EXTINCTION/LAKE TOBA SUPERVOLCANOE- 75,000 YEARS
AGO - CAUSED MILLENNIAL ICE AGE-1000 YEARS
- WIPED OUT MORE THAN 60 OF HUMANS
- AMBROSE- CAUSED CHANGE IN HUMAN EVOLUTION
DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL
COOPERATION DEVELOPMENT OF
LANGUAGE CAN WE MAKE THE NEXT TRANSITION WITHOUT
ANOTHER DISASTER?
19
DIVERSITY
OBSEVATIONS - BEFORE CAMBRIAN PERIOD-ONLY
MICROBES - COMPLEXITY OF LIFE INCREASED
FOLLOWING EXTINCTIONS - IN SPITE OF
EXTINCTIONS DIVERSITY INCREASED - NATURAL
PROCESS AGAIN- CREATION BY DESTRUCTION CAN
WE NOT CREATE A FUTURE WITH LESS DESTRUCTION?

20

LESSONS FROM EXTINCTIONS THEY WILL OCCUR EVEN
IF WE REDUCE OUR IMPACT TO ZERO FEEDBACKS CAN BE
WORSE THAN TRIGGERING EVENT - CLIMATE
CHANGE MAJOR THREAT/ HAS MANY CAUSES DESTRUCTION
(EXTINCTIONS) CAN CREATE GOOD RESULTS- -
MORE DIVERSITY/-SOME BELIEVE GREATER CAPABILITY
SURVIVAL HAS BEEN BY LUCK RATHER THAN BY
DARWINIAN FITNESS - DINOSAURS COULD NOT
PREPARE FOR AN ASTEROID IMPACT
GENERALISTS(MICROBES) SURVIVE BETTER THAN
SPECIALISTS(US) - BILLIONS OF YEARS
TO MILLIONS OF YEARS - OUR SPECIES
ONLY ABOUT 150,000 YEARS OLD LESSONS FOR
CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGE - CHANGE THE
I,WE, THREAT FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK IN OUR BRAIN
NATURE IS NOT BENIGN
LIFE IS VULNERABLE TO GLOBAL THREATS
PAST APPROACH NOT ACCEPTABLE BY
MY(OUR?)VALUES NEED TO DEAL
WITH FUTURE GLOBAL THREATS OUR
UNIQUE ABILITY TO USE KNOWLEDGE AND OUR BRAIN TO
ANTICIPATE AND PLAN FOR DISTANT FUTURE THREATS
IS THE CAPABILITY NEEDED TO GO BEYOND CREATION BY
DESTRUCTION--- WE ARE NOT
THE VILLIANS BUT WE DO HAVE TO MAKE GOOD DECISIONS
21
OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE
CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE -
GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP
THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY -
DISTINCTION BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS -
HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD
DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET -
UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS -
CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON
DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS
CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION -
IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT
EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS
- CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED
DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL
ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO
CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS
BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION
OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS
22
THE BRAIN NATURE AND NUTURE
BRAIN
IMAGING REVEALS CONSTRAINTS/OPPORTUNITIES
EMOTIONAL CONSTRAINTS - FEAR
BLOCKS NEOCORTEX INPUT - FLIGHT OR
FIGHT REACTION EMOTIONS ALSO PLAY AN IMPORTANT
POSITIVE ROLE - INFLUENCE VALUES
- FOCUS ATTENTION/INCREASES MEMORY
- LEARNING IS AN EMOTIONAL EXPERIENCE
- JOE LEDOUX DISTINCTION OF EMOTIONS
IMPLICIT EMOTIONS-BY PASSES
CORTEX-FEAR/ANGER
EXPLICIT EMOTIONS- INVOLVES CORTEX- LEARNING
- IT MAKES US HAPPY/FULFILLED TO USE
KNOWLEDGE SUCCESSFULLY
IMPLICIT EMOTIONS REINFORCES SUCCESSFUL HUNTING
EXPLICIT EMOTIONS
REINFORCES SUCCESSFUL LEARNING COMPLICATED
ANALYSIS CONSTRAINT - TUNE OUT CORTEX
WHEN TOO COMPLICATED(KAHNEMANN) -
NEURAL OPTIMISM/BLINK - MATHEMATICS
NOT PART OF BRAINS ULTIMATE DESIGN BRAINS
ASSESTS FOR USING KNOWLEDGE - USE OF
KNOWLEDGE TO LEARN/PLAN FOR THE FUTURE
- INSIDE OUTSIDE AMBIQUITY/CAN PARTNER WITH
MACHINES - PLASTICITY

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS NATURE AND NURTURE
IMPACT ON OUR DECISIONS -
INFERERENCES/RESPONSES ABOUT REALITY BUILT IN
- MANY BRAIN INFERENCES
INCORRECT/KNOWLEDGE GAP THREAT -
OUR FRAME WORK CONSTRAINS OUR USE OF
KNOWLEDGE/EINSTEIN
- BUT WE DO LEARN BASED UPON KNOWLEDGE/
SCIENTIFIC METHOD -
USING/DEVELOPING OUR EXPLICIT EMOTIONS VERY
IMPORTANT - PLASTICITY ENABLES US
TO REDESIGN OUR BRAIN

23

THE BRAIN/DECISIONS SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS
IDEAL PERFORMANCE OF A BRAIN FOR CO-EVOLUTION
DECISIONS - EVALUATE BY REASON THE
KNOWLEDGE AVAILABLE - BE OPEN TO
CHANGING REFERENCE FRAME/LEARN -
APPLY KNOWLEDGE BASED UPON EXPLICIT
EMOTIONS/VALUES WHAT IS A CONSTRAINT FOR MAKING
BEST DECISION - DECISION MAKING
BASED ON ULTIMATE VERSUS PROXIMATE CAUSES
- DOMINANCE OF IMPLICIT VERSUS EXPLICIT
EMOTIONS - FAILURE TO BE ABLE TO
EVALUATE KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY GLOBAL WARMING
ISSUE( THREATS GENERALLY ) -
RELATIONSHIP TO NATURE HAS STRONG ULTIMATE
CAUSES - MANY ARE NOT OPEN TO
CHANGING THEIR BELIEFS/VALUES
MANY GLOBAL WARMING/THREAT EXPERTS
LIKE EINSTEIN - ISSUE IS TOO
COMPICATED FOR INDIVIDUALS TO EVALUATE IMPACT
OF CONSTRAINTS PAST/CURRENT IMPACT ON
I,WE,THREAT FEEDBACKS -
SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IWT FRAMEWORK
- IMPLCIT EMOTIONS DOMINATE
- FAILURE AND INABILITY TO EVALUATE
AVAILABLE KNOWLEDGE - FEAR
CREATES US AND THEM - THEN WE
MAKE DECISIONS THAT VIOLATE GOLDEN RULE
- LOSE TRUST/REDUCE COOPERATION
- KNOWLEDGE USED FOR CONFLICTS HUMAN
UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE APPROACH TO CHANGE
- WE ARE ALL TRAPPED BY OUR
REFERENCE FRAME/COMPASSION -
LEARNING CAN CHANGE REFERENCE FRAME
- ASSERTION WE KNOW HOW WE HAVE TO
CHANGE IWT FOR CO-EVOLUTION
APPLYING OUR KNOWLEDGE TOGETHER SUCCESSFULLY
AGAINST A COMMON EXTERNAL
THREAT WILL MAKE US HAPPY!
24

IMPROVED CO-EVOLUTION DECISION MAKING EMOTIONAL
CONSTRAINT IMPLICIT EMOTIONS PREVENT/DISTORT
INPUT - BIOFEEDBACK/TRAINING/CONTR
OL IMPLICIT EMOTIONS
GLOBAL VERSION OF ANGER MANAGEMENT
- EMPATHY TO EACH OTHER AND TO THE REST
OF NATURE - STRENGTHEN EXPLICIT
EMOTIONS/SUCCESSFUL LEARNING COMPLICATED
ANALYSIS CONSTRAINT NEW TOOLS -
MACHINE ANALYSIS FOR COMPLEX ISSUES/FULL
INTEGRATION
IMPLANTS TANGIBLE
COMPUTING VIRTUAL
REALITY - AGENT BASED MODELING
- MACHINES TO STORE AND DELIVER
KNOWLEDGE/INTERNET INCREASE EFFECTIVENESS
- IMPROVE LEARNING SKILLS/NOT CONTENT
- PATHWAYS TO LEARNING/INTERFACE TO
WEB/INTERNET - PLASTICITY NEW
INSTITUTIONS - KNOWLEDGE COURT
NOT ON CONTENT/SCIENTIFIC
METHOD WORKS
INDEPENDENT EVALUATION OF PROCESS/CERTAINTY
JUDGES- EXPERTS BUT NOT
PRACTICING SCIENTISTS
25

OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE
CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE -
GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP
THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY -
DISTINCTION BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS -
HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD
DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET -
UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS -
CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON
DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS
CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION -
IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT
EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS
- CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED
DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL
ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO
CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS
BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION
OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS
26

JARED DIAMOND ( GUNS,GERMS AND STEEL, COLLAPSE)
- COVERS PERIOD FROM LAST ICE AGE
(13,0000 YA) - I, WE, THREAT
FEEDBACKS CREATE LARGER GROUPS
HUNTER-GATHERERS, VILLAGES, CITIES,
NATIONS - COOPERATE AND INNOVATE
TOGETHER - BAD DECISIONS MAJOR
CAUSE OF HUMAN FAILURES NEXT LOGICAL STEP-
GLOBAL COOPERATION IMPROVED DECISIONS
27

PAST EVOLUTION OF I ,WE, THREAT THE I,WE
RELATIONSHIP EVOLVES OVERTIME IN RESPONSE TO NEW
KNOWLEDGE/EXPERIENCE OF WHAT WORKS TO AVOID
THREATS AS INTERPRETED BY OUR BRAIN IWT EVOLVES
BY CHANGING OUR VALUES AND SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS

HUMAN SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS
VALUES
HUNTER-GATHERERS
EAT OR BE
EATEN/SURVIVAL
VILLAGES

CITIES

NATION STATES
MORE COOPERATION/TRUST KNOWLEDGE
KNOWLEDGE
I ----------------------------------- WE
---------------------------------
THREAT TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY
GENERAL HISTORICAL TRENDS
INCREASING KNOWLEDGE OF AND WAYS TO REMOVE
THREATS INCREASING USE OF TECHNOLOGY TO
DEFEND AGAINST THREATS INCREASING SIZE AND
COMPLEXITY OF SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS
INCREASING COOPERATION/CURRENTLY GLOBALIZATION
INCREASING SUCCESS AS MEASURED BY LIFESPAN
AND POPULATION
WE ARE
ON THE RIGHT PATH
WE ARE TAKING THE NEXT
STEP WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM RECENT GLOBAL
COOPERATION EFFORTS?
28

DESIGNED SOLUTIONS TO GLOBAL THREATS OZONE
LAYER- MONTREAL PROTOCOL - FIRST
GLOBAL THREAT/MUTATIONS FROM UV RADIATION
- 1984 FOUND 35 REDUCTION -
NOBEL PRIZE IN CHEMISTRY (MOLINA AND ROWLAND)
OZONE DEPLETING
CHEMICAL REACTIONS(CFC) - 1985 VIENNA
CONVENTION-INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK TO
CARRY OUT MEASUREMENTS AND PERFORM
RESEARCH - 1987 MONTREAL PROTOCOL ON
SUBSTANCES THAT DEPLETE THE
OZONE LAYER(AMENDMENTS 1990 AND 1992) -
ALL IDENTIFIED CHEMICALS PHASED OUT BY
2005 THE COMPLEXITIES BENEATH THE SUCCESS STORY
- WHY NO CHEATING AND GLOBAL COMMONS
PROBLEMS INDUSTRY
DISCOVERED THEY COULD MAKE MORE MONEY
BY SELLING NEW
CHEMICALS TO REPLACE CFCS - WIN/WIN
SOLUTIONS ARE DESIREABLE
EARTHLING FEATURE/DEVELOPING COUNTRIES GIVEN
LONGER TO COMPLY
- OZONE LAYER HAS NOT REVERSED
ITSELF/OSCILLATING
RAISES ISSUE OF NATURAL VARIATIONS
SPECULATE ALSO CONNECTED TO CLIMATE
CHANGE - IF OZONE LAYER
CHANGE IS NATURAL IS IT OKAY? OBSERVATIONS
- IMPORTANT TO BUILD CONSENSUS ON THE
FACTS - WIN/WIN SOLUTIONS ARE
IMPORTANT - DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE
HUMAN IMPACT
29

DESIGNED SOLUTIONS TO GLOBAL THREATS CO2
INCREASE-KYOTO PROTOCOL - FOLLOWED
SIMILAR PATH TO MONTREL PROTOCOL -
INCREASED CO2 MEASURED -
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
- RESEARCH AND MEASUREMENTS
- KYOTO PROTOCOL PROPOSED IN 1998 -
TREATED DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
DIFFERENTLY - TILL NOW NO WIN/WIN
SOLUTION FOUND - PROTOCOL RATIFIED
WITHOUT US PARTICIPATION - DESIGNING
SOLUTIONS TO CONTROL CO2 ASTEROID IMPACT
- NO GLOBAL FRAMEWORK YET ESTABLISHED
- SHARING OF KNOWLEDGE BY SCIENTISTS
- DIFFICULT TO MOBILIZE SUPPORT
INDICTATIVE OF DISCOUNTING OF DISTANT THREATS
- NASA ORDERED TO CATALOG IN TEN YEARS
ALL OBJECTS GREATER
THAN 1 KILOMETER THAT COULD HIT US SMALLER
ONES CAN STILL KILL MILLIONS OF PEOPLE
RECENT SURPRISE/HIDDEN FROM OUR TELESCOPES
- DESIGNING SOLUTIONS TO REMOVE THREAT
BLOW THEM UP/DANGEROUS ATTACH SAIL TO
CHANGE PATH USE RADIATION PRESSURE TO
CHANGE COURSE LARGE ROCKET/ GRAVITY TO
CHANGE PATH
OBSERVATIONS -
ASTEROID THREAT MORE CATASTROPHIC AND CERTAIN
- YET IT IS RECEIVING MUCH LESS
SUPPORT(100 TO 1) - GOOD EXAMPLE OF
EMOTIONS IMPACT/GOOD USE OF KNOWLEDGE COURT?
- FAILURE SIMILAR TO NEW ORLEANS AND
INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI
30

ADAPTIVE DESIGNS REGIONAL ECOSYSTEMS -
FAILED ATTEMPTS TO MANAGE ECOSYSTEMS/COMPLEX
SYSTEMS YELLOWSTONE FIRE
COMPLEX SYSTEMS UNPREDICTABLE -
THREATS WILL OCCUR UNPREDICTABLY -
SENSING/ REGULAR PATTERNS CAN PROVIDE
WARNING HEALTH BEST EXAMPLE OF RESPONSE TO
UNPREDICTABLE THREATS - WORLD HEALTH
ORGANIZATION(WHO) - WHO HAS TWO
PARTS/NEW AND KNOWN DISEASES - HAS
NETWORK IN 140 COUNTRIES - HAS 250
LABORATORIES (WHO COLLABORATING CENTERS)
- LINKED ELECTRONICALLY AT THE GRASS ROOTS
LEVEL - CAN BY-PASS GOVERNMENTS
FROM 1996 TO 2000 65 NOT REPORTED BY GOVERNMENT
- CANADA HAS IMPLEMENTED A SYSTEM TO
CRAWL THE WEB LOOKING FOR RUMORS OF
OUTBREAKS - 2000 WHO ESTABLISHED
GLOBAL OUTBREAK ALERT NETWORK COORDINATES
THEIR DISTRIBUTED NETWORK - THE
WORLD HEALTH ASSEMBLY(GOVERNING BODY) GAVE
AUTHORITY TO ACT WITHOUT GOVERNMENT
APPROVAL USED IN RECENT SARS EVENT HEALTH
MOST DEVELOPED RESPONSE TO GLOBAL THREAT
- GOOD MODEL FOR ALL THREATS/HEALTHY PLANET
- TWO PRONGED APPOACH MONITORING
AND CURES FOR KNOWN THREATS RESEARCH TO
IDENTIFY NEW THREATS AND CURES -
GOVERNANCE CAN ACT IDEPENDENTLY OF INDIVIDUAL
GOVERNMENTS WORKABLE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE-
- DESIGN AN ADAPTIVE DEFENSE IN CASE YOU
ARE WRONG CONCLUSIONS - ESTABLISH A
WHO LIKE ORGANIZATION FOR EACH THREAT -
COMMON EXTERNAL THREATS PROVIDE OPPORTUNITY
COOPERATION/TRUST
31

OUTLINE OF TALK PERSONAL PROLOGUE THE
CO-EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WE FACE - OUR ROLE -
GLOBAL THREATS BASIC CONCEPTS - KNOWLEDGE GAP
THREAT - LIMITS TO KNOWLEDGE/COMPLEXITY -
DISTINCTION BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEFS -
HUMAN UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE - MAKING GOOD
DECISIONS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT OUR PLANET -
UNDERSTANDING PAST GLOBAL DISASTERS -
CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE THREATS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
OUR BRAIN - NATURE/NURTURE - CONSTRAINTS ON
DECISION MAKING - WAYS TO ADDRESS
CONSTRAINTS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOCIAL EVOLUTION -
IMPORTANCE OF COOPERATION IN THE PAST - CURRENT
EFFORTS/GLOBAL COOPERATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS
- CHANGES IN VALUES/GOLDEN RULE - IMPROVED
DECISION MAKING - CHANGES IN SOCIAL
ORGANIZATION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS APPROACH TO
CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT - KNOWLEDGE VERSUS
BELIEFS ABOUT THE THREAT - DESIGN OF A SOLUTION
OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS
32
VALUE TO DESIGN THE FUTURE CULTURE/BELIEFS
VALUE(C,R) GOLDEN RULETREAT OTHERS LIKE YOU
WOULD LIKE TO BE TREATED YOURSELF
- CENTRAL BELIEF OF MANY RELIGIONS/BASIS FOR
SOCIAL RULES
- ROUTINELY VIOLATED IN OUR CONFLICTS WITH
EACH OTHER(US/THEM) KNOWLEDGE DRIVEN PRAGMATIC
VALUE(K) COOPERATION IS THE BEST WAY TO ADDRESS
COMMON GLOBAL THREATS -
CONCLUSION SUPPORTED BY PAST EXPERIENCE
- BUT COOPERATION REQUIRES TRUST
- GOLDEN RULE WILL PROMOTE THRUST
- WE ARE ALL TRAPPED IN OUR
REFERENCE FRAMES/ BASIS FOR COMPASSION
- COMPASSION ENABLES GOLDEN RULE
CONCLUSION
CORE RELIGIOUS/CULTURAL VALUE AND SECULAR
ANALYSIS AGREE GOLDEN RULE
IS KEY FOR IWT FRAMEWORK TO MEET CO-EVOLUTION
CHALLENGE EARTHLINGS- NEW I,WE THREAT
FRAMEWORK GLOBAL LIMIT OF
GOLDEN RULE -WE ARE ALL US
LESS I MORE WE BUILDS TRUST
COOPERATE GLOBALLY
USE GOLDEN RULE IN DESIGNING
SOLUTIONS
DESIGNING
EARTHLINGS USE GOLDEN RULE/IMPROVED
DECISIONS/NEW ORGANIZATIONS
33

GLOBAL WARMING SOLUTION DESIGNING EARTHLINGS
APPROACH CLIMATE CHANGE IS DEFINITELY A THREAT
- NEED TO DESIGN A DEFENSE -
SHOULD DEFEND AGAINST WARMING AND COOLING
- HUMAN OR NATURAL CAUSES - WE ARE
NOT THE VILLIANS WE ARE THE STEWARDS GREENHOUSE
EFFECT IS KNOWLEDGE - CONTROL CARBON
DIOXIDE LEVEL IN ATMOSPHERE -
CURRENTLY ABOUT 24 BILLION TONNES PER YEAR
- NOT POSSIBLE IN SHORT TERM TO REPLACE
FOSSIL FUEL - NEED TO ADDRRESS GROWING
CO2 IN SHORTER TERM - CAPTURING AND
STORING CO2 FROM POWER PLANTS/NO WILL NOT
PREVENT CO2 BUILDUP-JUST SLOW INCREASE
ATMOSPHERIC CAPTURE OF CARBON DIOXIDE(
LACKNER) - CAN CAPTURE AMOUNT OF
EMMISIONS- CARBON NEUTRAL - CAN
CAPTURE LESS THAN OUR EMMSIONS/ TEMPERATURE UP
- CAN CAPTURE MORE THAN OUR
EMMSIONS/TEMPERATURE DOWN - THUS
PROVIDES PROTECTION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
GLOBAL THERMOSTAT ( EISENBERGER/CHICHILNISKY)
- RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES(PROVIDE
ENERGY/ CAPTURE CO2) NEW ERA-MORE ENERGY LESS
CO2 - NEED TO COMPENSATE FOR PLANET
(HUMAN AS WELL) DAMAGE - PREVENT
FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE FROM SOLAR CHANGES
34

GLOBAL THERMOSTAT DESIGNING EARTHLINGS
APPROACH CORE VALUE - TREAT OTHERS THE
WAY YOU WANT TO BE TREATED - WE ARE ONE
SPECIES- SOLUTION MUST WORK FOR ALL GLOBAL
APPROACH NEEDED - KYOTO GOOD START
- REMOVE WE(DEVELOPED) THEY (DEVELOPING) DIVIDE
CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM(CDM) (
CHICHILNISKY) - MODIFY SO ALL PARTICIPATE
- PRACTICE GOLDEN RULE DESIGN EVERY
PERSON HAS SAME ALOTTMENT THE RICH HELP THE
POOR USE KNOWLEDGE TO CREATE WIN/WIN
SOLUTION - WIN/WIN SOLUTION DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES PROVIDE TECHNOLOGY/FINANCING ALL
BUILD RENEWABLE ENERGY/ AIR CAPTURE PLANTS
GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWS BY 5-10/ ADDRESS OTHER
IMPACTS CAPTURE RATE SET BY INTERNATIONAL
BODY HOW TO SET THE TEMPERATURE-GLOBAL
CLIMATE HEALTH - CREATE BODY/ KYOTO TO
SUPPORT RESEARCH - USE RESEARCH TO
PROVIDE KNOWLEDGE - GOVERNANCE/ONE
PERSON ONE VOTE/ EARTHLINGS CORE VALUE -
THERE WILL BE WINNERS AND LOSERS/ THERE ARE TODAY
- TRUST-THOSE ADVERSELY IMPACTED WILL BE
TAKEN CARE OF - GLOBAL SCALE VERSION OF
NATIONAL PROJECTS
35

• OBSERVATIONS/CONCLUSIONS
• WHAT IWT CHANGES DOES KNOWLEDGE TELL US ARE
  NEEDED?
• CHANGE NEEDED IS IN OUR VALUES/SOCIAL
  ORGANIZATIONS
• - FROM SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST TO THE
  GOLDEN RULE
• - FROM COMPETITION TO GLOBAL
  COOPERATION/TRUST
• - FROM NATIONS TO EARTHLINGS/COMMON
  THREATS TO OUR SPECIES
• CHANGE THE WAY WE MAKE DECISIONS
• - USE TOOLS TO HELP US MAKE DECISIONS
• - NEW GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS LIKE WHO AND
  KNOWLEDGE COURT
• CHANGE OUR RELATIONSHIP TO NATURE
• - USE KNOWLEDGE TO AVOID
  NATURES(INCLUDING OUR) THREATS
• - DESIGN DEFENSES AGAINST UNAVOIDABLE
  GLOBAL THREATS
• ISSUES TO DEFINE NEW IWT FEEDBACK FRAMEWORK

36

BUT FOR ME THE SURPRISE WAS KNOWLEDGE AND
BELIEFS IDENTIFY THE SAME KEY TO SUCCESS
WE NEED TO ALL PRACTICE THE GOLDEN RULE AND
THAT THE COMPASSION AND COOPERATION IT ENABLES
WILL CREATE NEW MEANING IN ALL OUR LIVES AND WE
WILL BE HAPPY!