???????3R??

1
???????3R??

• ?????????
• ???
• www.sktsang.com
• ????????????????
• ??????????????????????
• 2009?10?28?

2
??

• ?????????????,???????????,???????????????,????????
  ??????????????????,?????????????,???????????????V
  /U/W/L/H/X?
• ????,?????????,?????3R???,? (1) ???????
  (Rebalancing) (2) ????????????????????????????
  (Regionalization) ?? (3) ?????????????????
  (Resource) ???
• ???????????????,??????????????,?????????????,?????
  ????????????????????,???????????????????????,?????
  ?????

3
???????????
?????
???
???? www.oecd.org/OECDEconomicOulook , September
2009
4
?????????
????
??
???
???? IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2009
5
??????????

• ???????????,??????????????? ????????????
• ???,??????,??????,????????????????????,???????????
  ,?????????????,???????????
• ????(exit strategy)??????????,??????????,?????????
  ????,?????????????????????V/U/W/L/H/X?
• ????,????????3R????

6
?1R ???????????

• ?????????,?????????????????????????,????????????20
  03???????????,???????????,????????????????
• ???????????????????,?????????????????? (Wong and
  Tsang, 2009) ,???????1990?????,?????????,???????(F
  DI)???????????
• ???????????????,???????(?????????WTO??)???????????
  ?????,?????,???????????????????????

7
?1R ???????????

• ?????????????,???????????????????????????????????
  ????????,???????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????,?????????????????
  ?????,?????????,????????????????????
  ???????,????????????????,???????????????,?????????
  ?????????????

8
?1R ???????????
???????2008??????????????
9
?1R ???????????
???????2008??????????????
10
?1R ???????????
11
?1R ???????????

• ??????????? (1)?????,????????,????????????(2)???
  ???,???????????????????????,?????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????,??
  ????????
• ???,??????1R ??,??????????????,?????????
• ???,??????????????????

12
?2R ????????

• ????2R??????????????????????????????,????????????
  ??????,????????????
• ?????????????????,???(internationalization)???????
  (globalization)?
• ???????????????????????(???? -
  Regionalization)????????(WTO, IMF,
  ??)????????,??????

13
?2R ????????

• ?????????????????????,???????????????200??????????
  ???? (long waves)?
• ?????????,?????????????WTO?????,??????(regional
  trade agreements--RTAs)??????,????,2008?????GATT/W
  TO?????????????421?,230?????,???????1995?????????

14
?????????????/GDP??
????Estevadeorda, Frantz and Taylor (2003)
15
?????????????/GDP??
????Taylor (2002) Obstfeld and Taylor (2003),
16
?2R ????????

• ?????????????????????????????????????????????
• ???????,??????,?????????????????????,?????????????
  ?????,??????????????????,?????????????????
• ??,???????,?????????????,??????????,??????????ASE
  AN10 3? BRIC??????????????????????????
• ?????,???????????????????????????????????????????
  ?,???????

17
?2R ????????
18
????3R????????

• ???????3R??,??????????????,???????????,???????????
  ????58,?????53?(http//www.cnncm.com/zykc.htm)
  ??????????????40?????????30,?????????????????60
  ,????????????,????????????,??????????????????????
• ???,???????????,??20??????9 ??????????????????,?
  ????????

19
????3R????????

• ??,????????,???????????????
• ??????CRB??,????????????????????????(2002-2004????
  ????????????????????),????????????????????,???????
  ???????????????????????,???????????,???????????

20
????3R????????
21
?????,????3R??

• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
• ??????,????????????????,????????????????????(?????
  ?)???,????????????,??3R????
• ????????????????????????????????????????????

22
????????????????
23
?????,????3R??

• ????????,????????,???????????????,????????????????
  ??????,???????
• ????????,????????,??????????????,??????????,??????
  ?????????

24
??????????????(????)
25
??????????????(??)
26
?????,????3R??

• ????????????????????????????????,?????????19??????
  ?????,?????
• ???????????,????????,?????????????,???????????????
  ,??????????,???????,????????????????????,?????????
  ??

27
?????????(??)?????(??)
28
?????,????3R??

• ??????????????????,???????????????,??????????
• ??,?????????,????????,???????,????????,??????(????
  ??????????),???????????????

29
?????????????????
30
?????,????3R??

• ????,???????????????????,?????????????????????????
  ????????,?????????????????????,???????????????????
  
• ??,???????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???,????????????????

31
?????,????3R??

• ????????????????,??????????,???????????????????
• ???,????????????????3R??????????
  (Regionalization)???,????????????????? (Resource)
  ??,???????????????? (Rebalancing) ?

32
????

• Estevadeordal, Antoni, Frantz, Brian and Taylor,
  Alan M. (2003) The Rise and Fall of World Trade,
  1870-1939, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.
  CXVIII, No.2, May, pp.359-407?
• Taylor, Alan M. (2002), Globalization, Trade and
  Development Some Lessons from History, NBER
  Working Paper 9326, November.
• Obstfeld, Maurice, and Alan M. Taylor (2003),
  Globalization and Capital Markets, in
  Globalization in Historical Perspective, edited
  by M. D. Bordo, A. M. Taylor and J. G.
  Williamson, University of Chicago Press.
• Tsang Shu-ki,  (2008),  The Economic Basis of
  Regionalization,  The Pan-Pearl River Delta An
  emerging regional economy in a globalizing
  China,  in Y.M. Yeung and Shen Jianfa (eds.), The
  Chinese University Press89-113

33
????

• ??? (Tsang Shu-ki) (2008) ??????????? (The
  Global and the Chinese Economy from the Long
  View) (in Chinese) posted on the authors
  website www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/CBC_sktsang_0
  81011.pdf
• Tsang Shu-ki (15/9/2009), Wither the global
  polity/economy? article posted on the authors
  website www.sktsang.com/RF/Tsang_0909.pdf
• Tsang Shu-ki (28/9/09), Dragon Weathering the
  Storm Blue Sky Ahead? article posted on the
  authors website www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/Tsang
  -CPU-DRC-090928.ppt
• Wong Pui Yan and Tsang Shu-ki (2009), FDI-driven
  Trade and Economic Growth in China, article
  posted as www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/CSC_econ2_Wan
  dT_R.pdf