We Live in Exponential Times Interagency to Whole-of-Government

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We Live in Exponential Times Interagency to
Whole-of-Government
Prof. L. Erik Kjonnerod Director, Center for
Applied Strategic Learning, NDU
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A whole new set of skills is crucial.

• It became clear to me at 58. I would have to
• learn new tricks that were not taught to me in
  the military manuals or on the battlefield I
  must become an expert in a whole new set of
  skills.
• General George Marshall
• Former Secretary of
  State

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Shift Happens

• In times of rapid change, the learners inherit
  the earth, while the learned find themselves
  beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no
  longer exists.
• Eric Hoffer
• The illiterate of the 21st Century will not be
  those who cannot read or write, but those who
  cannot learn, unlearn and relearn.
• Alvin Toffler

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Evolution is Imperative.
It is not the strongest of the species that
survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one
most responsive to change. Charles Darwin We
must always renew, change, rejuvenate ourselves
otherwise we harden. Johann Wolfgang von
Goethe
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Lifelong learning is critical.

In times of rapid change, the learners inherit
the earth, while the learned find themselves
beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no
longer exists. Eric Hoffer The illiterate of
the 21st Century will not be those who cannot
read or write, but those who cannot learn,
unlearn and relearn.
Alvin Toffler
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A New National Security

• The greatest test of global leadership in the
  21st century will be the way in which nations act
  in the face of threats that transcend
  international borders, from nuclear
  proliferation, armed conflict, and climate change
  to terrorism, biological hazards, and abject
  poverty. Today, national security is
  interdependent with international security.
• Global Strategic Assessment 2009

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The Cold War
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GWOT
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Emerging Security Issues
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Left Behind - NKPD
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The Nation-State is Losing Ground
International Bodies
Global Advocacy Groups
The Nation-State
Licit Private Actors
Illicit Private Actors
Aggrieved National Groups
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Widespread Troubles
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Two-Edged Sword

• The forces of globalization that stitch the
  world together and drive prosperity could also
  tear it apart. In the face of new transnational
  threats and profound security interdependence,
  even the strongest countries rely on the
  cooperation of others to protect their national
  security. No nation, including the United States,
  is capable of successfully meeting the
  challenges, or capitalizing on the opportunities,
  of this changed world alone. But
• American foreign policy lags behind these
  realities.

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Examples of this Paradigm-Shift

• Natural Resources Challenges
• The Spread of Islam
• The Changing Nature of War
• The Rise of China

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Resources - Specific Regional Challenges

• China, a country with more than 22 of the
  worlds population, only has 8 of its fresh
  water.
• Indias water demand is expected to double by
  2025.
• The Middle Easts fresh water availability is
  expected to drop by 50 well before 2025.

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Islam - Why We CareForeign Policy Implications

• Our interests in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Israel,
  Palestine, and Iran are inextricably tied to
  Islam.
• A negative perception of the US and its
  involvement in the region feeds Islamic extremism
• Ironically, our greatest strengthmilitary
  powerhas become our greatest liability because
  extensive use of military power can help to
  mobilize Muslims to become Salafi jihadists. Our
  most important partners are Muslims, and we will
  have to continue to find ways to support ongoing
  Muslim efforts to marginalize the Salafi jihadist
  ideology across the Isalmic world while taking
  prudent actions to inhibit catastrophic
  terrorism.
• Global Strategic Assessment 2009

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The Changing Nature of War

• As society and technology change, the nature of
  war also changes, specifically with regard to
• Actors
• Means
• The most capable opponents may seek to pursue
  what has been called hybrid warfarethe
  combination of conventional, irregular, and
  catastrophic forms of warfare simultaneously.
• Global Strategic Assessment 2009

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Why the US needs China

• Economy In 2008, the US exported 71.5 billion
  in goods to China, and imported 337.8 billion
• Strategic Interests China is a regional
  heavyweight for dealing with difficult problems
  such as North Korea

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Why the World Needs China

• Chinas large population and rapid economic
  growth have increased its energy needs. It has
  vested interests in exploring new energy
  marketssuch as Venezuela and Sudan.
• Its seat on the UNSC demands that others consider
  its point of view
• It is a significant factor in East Asian regional
  stability
• It is a nuclear power

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Major Differences Between China and the United
States
United States -Democratic -Nascent
culture -Focused on election cycle -Concerned
with standing up for a worthy cause -legalistic -D
irect Communication -Values youth
China -Communist -Ancient Culture -Focus on
Long-term -Concerned with losing face -Relies
on connections -indirect communication -Values
elderly
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Todays global troubles
tomorrows domestic concerns!
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Thinking Strategically

• Hot Topics
• Pandemic disease
• Natural disasters
• Trade promotion
• Global debt
• Foreign oil
• Stability operations
• Counterterrorism

• Larger Issues
• Health and security
• Domestic preparedness
• Corporate governance
• Economic inequality
• Resource scarcity
• USG structure
• Global demographics

Stop reacting start preventing.
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Thoughts on Doctrine Why Bother?
"The most difficult thing about planning
against the Americans, is that they do not read
their own doctrine, and they would feel no
particular obligation to follow it if they
did." Admiral Sergei I. Gorshkov, (Father of the
Russian blue water navy) The British write
some of the best doctrine in the world, it
is fortunate that their officers do not read it."
Col (later FM) Erwin Rommel I am tempted to
say that whatever doctrine the armed forces are
working on now, they have got it wrong. I am also
tempted to declare that it does not matter. What
does matter is their ability to get it right
quickly, when the moment arrives. Sir Michael
Howard
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The Future of Engagement

• What is a peer?
• Will asymmetric, nontraditional means become a
  commonplace element of war?
• What does it mean to win?
• Must we be prepared to fight a war on many
  fronts?
• combat abroad, in the face of both kinetic and
  nontraditional threats
• attacks at home, to hinder supply and deployment
• attacks on civilian targets in the US homeland
• shaping public opinion
• When many more adversaries are nuclear powers,
  how will it change the equation?
• Employing the private sector?

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Traditional Orientation
Executive Branch Agencies
Foreign Governments
Congress
Nongovernmental Organizations
Intergovernmental Organizations
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Players and ConnectionsThe Original Interagency
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Current Reality Adds.
State and Local Governments
Multinational Firms
Contractors
Extra-state Actors
And then some..
How are new players leveraged in Whole of
Government strategy?
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WOG Players and Connections Todays Reality
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National Security Council (NSC) and Interagency
Structure
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A Changing Process

• National Security Advisor runs the process
  Centralized control
• More formalized tasking to Deputies Committee
• Interagency Policy Committees chaired by NSC

The mission of the US is to provide global
leadership grounded in the understanding that the
world shares A common security and a common
humanity. President Barack Obama For Affrs Aug
2007
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Consistent Challenges

• Cultural differences
• Military v. civilian agency response
• Rivalries tensions among and within agencies
• Differences in roles, priorities footprints
• Hesitant buy-in
• Peacetime planning incentives
• Coordination s ceding control
• Tight resources with declining trends unless
  clear, costs trump benefits
• Resistance to collaborative planning culture and
  tools
• Inter-department security policy and procedures

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System Operates at the Edge of Chaos

• System shows elements of chaos
• Non-linearity is common
• It is sensitive to initial conditions
• Tipping points are prevalent
• but it also shows continuity
• Agency players, interests, and capabilities
  remain the same or change slowly

Neither individual players nor the group can
control the final outcome with any certainty
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Emerging Challenges and New Thinking
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Recent Thinking

• Newts Note, Strategic Changes Needed
• -leadership metrics -Goldwater-Nichols for
  non-defense
• -winning the Long War -defeating terrorists in
  urban areas
• -basic research reqs. -entrepreneurialism
• -communication/evaluation
• CSIS, Seven Revolutions, Seven Futures
• -global, long-term, trends until 2025
• Huntington
• -clash of civilizations along ethno-linguistic-so
  cio-cultural lines
• Friedman
• -running faster just to stay in place
• Barnett
• -filling the seams between war and peace is
  essential for US national interests

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PH Findings Enhance Interagency Capabilities

• Quadrennial Strategic Review
• Government-Wide Information Sharing
• Interagency Fusion Groups
• Global Health Engagement
• Global Hazards Planning and Response

• U.S. Government Partnership Framework
• Science and Technology Incentive Framework
• Global Domain Foresight
• Human Resources Model for Global Affairs
• Global Affairs Learning Consortium

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Project on National Security Reform

• Project on National Security Reform (Jim Locher)
• In 1947 there were 4 agencies today there are 26
• Options
• Director of National Security Affairs (DNSA)
  with Authority
• No National Security Advisor or Homeland Security
  Advisor
• Regional Directors of Integrated Regional
  Centers (IRCs)
• Issue Focused, less collaborative, White House
  focused long term
• Hierarchy of Decentralized Teams
• Empowered cross functional teams that work issues
  at all levels for the President day to day
  decentralized problem solving

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Key Initiatives and ProgramsDirectives, Studies,
Educational Initiatives

• Joint Interagency Coordination Groups
• Provides civilian counsel and expertise to the
  combatant commanders.
• The Way Ahead?...S/CRS, PRTs?
• National Security Professional
• Qualification for select positions within the
  Executive Branch
• National Security Education Consortium
• The Way Ahead?
• Center for Complex Operations
• Interagency Center for Complex Operations located
  in Washington, DC
• Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
  (S/CRS)

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Notional NSP Competencies and Learning Areas
Requires input from Interagency stakeholders
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Integrated Management System (IMS)

• Country Reconstruction Stabilization Group
  (CRSG)
• Washington-based
• Decision-making body (Policy Coordination
  Committee (PCC))
• With Planning and Operations Staff
• Integration Planning Cells (IPC)
• Geographic Combatant Command or multinational
  headquarters
• Civilian planning cell
• Advance Civilian Teams (ACT)
• In the field, Report to Chief of Mission
• Interagency field management and coordination
  teams

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Planning Process

• Situation Analysis
• Interagency Conflict Assessment Framework (ICAF)
• Situation Analysis Overview
• Policy Formulation
• Policy Advisory Memorandum

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Planning Process
ICAF
Situation Analysis Overview
Integrated Management System
National Washington DC
Policy Advisory Memo
CRSG
PCC
USG RS Strategic Plan
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Video 3

• National ID

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In the Future - HOW

• Individually
• Coordination takes work
• Personal commitment
• Networking and meeting those who you will need to
  work with
• Pushing for understanding

• Institutionally
• Career-long education requirements
• Changes in budget, doctrine, and direction
• Building capacity through leveraging the
  expertise and strengths of other agencies

You are the agent of change
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Or....when all else fails Flowchart For Problem
Resolution
Is It Working?
NO
YES
Dont Mess With It!
Did You Mess With It?
YES
YOU IDIOT!
NO
Will it Blow Up In Your Hands?
Anyone Else Knows?
Youre SCREWED!
YES
YES
Can You Blame Someone Else?
NO
NO
NO
Hide It
Look The Other Way
Yes
NO PROBLEM!
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QUESTIONS?
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