Today

1
Today

• Review Exam
• Network Diagrams
• Estimating task durations
• Crashing
• PERT

2
Project Plan OutlineChapter 11 copy packet

• The Project Team
• The Project Tasks
• The project cost management plan
• Break-even analysis here
• The project time management plan
• Work Breakdown Structure here
• Gantt chart here
• Network Diagram here
• The project human resource management plan

3
My Project plan outline, continued

• The project communications management plan
• Reviews
• Reports
• Documentation
• The project risk management plan
• Change control

4
My Project Plan Outline, Continued

• The project procurement management plan
• The project quality management plan
• (AS OUTLINED IN Chapter 11)
• Details are contained in Chapters 5 and 6 of
  Schwalbe, which is why we cover that chapter now

5
Steps in your Gantt Chart should include.

• The steps in the project execution stage only
• Not the whole project lifecycle!
• See Chapter 4, copy packet for lists of major
  steps for each IT project type

6
Mappings

• Place Reviews and Meetings under Project
  communications management plan
• Place Change Control under Project Risk
  Management Plan
• Add some further content about risk assessment
  and contingency plans
• Place Assumptions under project risk management
  plan as well

7
Homework

• Burns (copy packetchapter 7, exercises 4, 8 and
  9, pgs 28-32

8
Schedule Planning

• Define Activities can sometimes get these from
  the WBS or from a template in MS Project
• Sequence Activities identifying interactivity
  dependencies
• Estimate Activity Resources estimate the type
  and quantity of resources
• Estimate Activity Durations after resources are
  determined
• Develop Schedule analyze activity sequences

9
Network Diagrams

• Networks flow from left to right
• Initially, we assume that an activity cannot
  begin until all preceding connected activities
  have been completed
• Arrows indicate precedence and flow
• Looping is not allowed
• Conditional statements are not allowed

10
Two approaches

• AOA Activity on Arrow not used, but still
  appears in textbooks --left over from PERT
• AON Activity on Node used by all software
  packages continues as part of CPM

11
Some Terminology

• Activity (task, step) takes time to complete,
  has a definite starting time, duration, and
  ending time
• Path a sequence of connected, dependent
  activities
• Critical path the longest path through a
  network and the path that determines project
  duration
• Event an instant in time at which an activity
  begins or ends.may be a milestone

12
More terminology

• Predecessor activity an activity that
  immediately precedes another activity
• Successor activity an activity that immediately
  follows another activity
• Merge activity an activity with more than one
  predecessor activities
• Burst activity an activity with more than one
  successor activities

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What do Network Diagrams tell us??

• What the predecessor and successor activities
  are
• 1) the project duration
• 2) the critical path
• 3) tasks on the critical path
• 4) tasks not on the critical path
• 5) slack associated with non-critical tasks
• 6) earliest start, earliest finish, latest
  start and latest finish times
• The longest path through the network and the one
  that determines total project duration.

15
Task Table (Table 7.1)
16
Draw Activity-on-Node Network, Please (Page 12)
17
Draw Activity on Arrow Network, please. (Page
12)
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Mechanism for Determining Start Dates
ES EF
LS LF
ES /K EF N/K LS LF
19
Mechanism for Determining Start Dates
ES EF
LS LF
1 /K 6 A/6 LS LF
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Skip to MS Word, Page 12
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Designations

• ES Early Start
• EF Early Finish
• LS Late Start
• LF Late Finish
• K - Duration of the activity
• Starting node will start on day 1, at the
  beginning, or whatever the starting day is
• Finish time will be no later than the close of
  business on day k, so that EFj ESj K 1

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For Merge Nodes,

• ESj1 MAX(EFj for all adjacent predecessors)
  1
• Find the largest of all the EF numbers for all
  predecessor activities and add 1 to that, using
  the result as the ES number for the adjacent
  successor task
• This is because the successor activity can only
  start after ALL of its predecessors are
  complete..See page 14.

23
Relationships between predecessor/successor nodes

• FINISH/START
• START/FINISH
• FINISH/FINISH
• START/START

24
Rules for ES, EF, LS, LF

• To summarize, the rules are as follows
• EFj ESj K 1
• ESj1 MAX(EFj of all adjacent predecessors) 1
• LFj-1 MIN(LSj of all of the adjacent
  successors) 1
• LSj LFj K 1

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See Figure 7.9 on page 16
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Project management modules within ERP

• Can use HR data in the data base
• Provides availability and salary data
• Seamless integration
• Can use history database if available

28
Estimating --

• An iterative process
• Definition, Analysis, Design
• After Definition, 50-100 off
• After Analysis, 25-50 off
• After Medium level design--within 10
• A good WBS is absolutely essential to do
  estimating

29
Estimating Techniques

• Professional Judgment
• Goldratt says experienced project professionals
  tend to overestimate
• However, naïve IT project players tend to grossly
  underestimate, history shows
• Estimates can be all over the map
• History database
• Formulas
• OUR WEAKEST LINK

30
Use of Professional Judgment

• Based on WBS, an expert judgment estimate is made
  for every task in each work package
• The developer assigned to the work package will
  make every effort to complete the task in the
  time he estimated it would take
• Amazingly accurate when experts are available
• Often, however, experts arent available
• We will talk more about this later

31
Use of History Database

• For this to work, your firm must keep a history
  database
• The database should record how long each task
  took and who did the task
• Break new projects up into tasks that have a
  history database
• 10 to 1 productivity ratio between best to worst
  professionals

32
Questions, Contd

• How much of the total time does Brooks devote to
  Definition, Analysis and Design?
• 1/3
• How much time to coding?
• 1/6 to Coding
• How much time to testing?
• 1/4 to component test and early system test
• 1/4 to total system test

33
Use of Formulas

• COCOMO--project cost, effort, schedule, staffing
  for each of the phases
• Preliminary design
• Detailed design
• Code and unit test
• System test
• COCOMO was developed by Barry Boehm in
  1981--COnstructive COst MOdel

34
Inputs to COCOMO

• Monthly cost of staff involved
• Factors indicating the general level of
  complexity of the software
• Programming practices and tools used
• Experience of staff
• Lines of Source Code--LOSC--rendering COCOMO
  unusable

35
Function Points

• A user input
• User display
• Peripheral I/O
• Restructuring data
• Condition checking
• Calculation
• Branching

36
Function point approach--BEFORE YOU LEAP

• Vendor is Gordon Group
• It must know how many LOSC are required for each
  function point.
• It calculates LOSC based on function points it
  knows about and feeds this into the COCOMO
  algorithm
• Priced at 495 (a bargain)

37
Estimacs from CA (Computer Associates)

• Can take into account modern code generation
  tools
• Determines effort, but also
• Hardware required
• financial break-even analysis
• risk analysis
• maintenance costs
• Expensive gt 20K (currently 25,000)

38
Estimating Programming Function Points and
Formulas

• D C ( G J)
• D is the task duration in person-days
• C is the complexity of the task
• G is the assigned persons general experience
• J is the assigned professionals job knowledge
  factor

39
Complexity

• Must break task down into its smallest possible
  repeatable functions
• Then add up the complexity of each function
• User input, user display, peripheral I/O,
  restructuring data, condition checking,
  calculation, etc.
• Repeatable functions are called function points.
• Function points are graded as SIMPLE, COMPLEX and
  VERY COMPLEX

40
Productivity

• Your average programmer gets a productivity
  factor of 1 for G
• Slower programmers get factors gt 1
• Faster programmers get factors lt 1

41
Formula method conclusions

• Will work if you develop accurate factors
• Can be used for any task from building a house to
  developing software
• Depends on how well you granularize

42
Estimating The Analysis Phase

• Interviews
• Analyze Existing Documents and Systems
• Prepare Functional Specification
• Presentation

43
RATIOS from Rakos, John, 1990.

• PHASE PERCENTAGE
• Definition phase -- 10
• Analysis phase -- 20
• Design phase -- 10
• Programming -- 20
• System test -- 17
• Acceptance -- 7
• Operation -- 16

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This breaks down to

• PLAN -- 40
• BUILD -- 20
• TEST -- 40

45
Another Rule of Thumb

• The time to design, document and code a module
• equals the time to debug it
• According to Gildersleeve

46
Can you use RATIOS for Forecasting?

• Suppose you found that it took 20 days to do
  definition.
• How long, based on ratios will it take to do the
  project?

47
Estimating Rules (Rakos)

• Never use inexperienced persons to estimate
• Get group estimates (resulting from group
  discussion) if possible
• Never force an estimate on a programmer
• Never take an average of different estimates
• Granularize down to one month or less
• Always add for contingency
• Always quote a range when giving estimates

48
Conclusions to Estimating

• Our weakest talent
• Estimating is iterative
• Estimating is still an art

49
Scheduling --

• Also assists with estimating, especially when PM
  software is used

50
PM software supports

• WBS chart
• Gantt chart
• Network chart
• Calendar(s)
• Resources and their assignments

51
PERT

• Uses activity on arrow approach
• Understand what float is--it is slack
• Critical path is the longest path
• shows precedent activities, relationships
• doesnt show what will be done when, by whom

52
Resource allocation

• Assign tasks to individuals whose skill level
  suits the task
• Assign similar tasks with lots of interaction
  overhead to the same person to minimize
  communication overhead
• Assign time-critical tasks to your most reliable
  people
• Dont assign too many different tasks to any one
  individual

53
Reducing task duration by adding manpower

• Add 20 direct time for each additional member on
  a professional team
• If it takes 10 person days for one person, it
  will take 12 person days for two people but only
  six days of calendar time, 14.4 person days for
  three people, etc. (How many calendar days for
  three people?)

54
Cost effects of adding resources

• More resources, gets the project done sooner,
  SOMETIMES
• But it also costs more
• The PM must come up with the best balance,
  depending on the priorities set by management or
  the user
• Adding resources late within a project actually
  delays the project while costing much more

55
Shortening the duration of projects

• Fast tracking
• Crashing
• Adding resources to the critical path
• Allowing your current CP teams members to work
  overtime
• Do it right the first time
• We will revisit this subject again, later

56
Crashing projects

• Crash tasks on the critical path only, only as
  long as no other path becomes critical
• If other paths become critical, the analyst must
  crash those as well

57
Use three sets of Gantts--RAKOS

• one for yourself alone, with all float and
  contingency visible
• second for the individuals involved--their
  resource Gantt, contingencies hidden
• third for distribution to upper
  management--contingencies hidden
• Include a 10 contingency into all estimates

58
Importance of Project Schedules

• Managers often cite delivering projects on time
  as one of their biggest challenges
• Average time overrun from 1995 CHAOS report was
  222
• Time has the least amount of flexibility it
  passes no matter what
• Schedule issues are the main reason for conflicts
  on projects, especially during the second half of
  projects

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Figure 5-1. Conflict Intensity Over the Life of a
Project
60
Project Time Management Processes

• Project time management involves the processes
  required to ensure timely completion of a
  project. Processes include
• Define activities
• Sequence activities
• Estimate activity durations
• Estimate activity resources
• Develop schedule
• Control schedule

61
Where Do Schedules Come From? Defining Activities

• Project schedules grow out of the basic documents
  that initiate a project
• Project charter includes start and end dates and
  budget information
• Scope statement and WBS help define what will be
  done
• Activity definition involves developing a more
  detailed WBS and supporting explanations to
  understand all the work to be done

62
Activity Sequencing

• Involves reviewing activities and determining
  dependencies
• Mandatory dependencies inherent in the nature of
  the work hard logic
• Discretionary dependencies defined by the
  project team soft logic
• External dependencies involve relationships
  between project and non-project activities
• You must determine dependencies in order to use
  critical path analysis

63
Project Network Diagrams

• Project network diagrams are the preferred
  technique for showing activity sequencing
• A project network diagram is a schematic display
  of the logical relationships among, or sequencing
  of, project activities

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Figure 5-2. Sample Activity-on-Arrow (AOA)
Network Diagram for Project X
65
Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)

• Also called activity-on-arrow (AOA) project
  network diagrams
• Activities are represented by arrows
• Nodes or circles are the starting and ending
  points of activities
• Can only show finish-to-start dependencies

66
Process for Creating AOA Diagrams

• 1. Find all of the activities that start at node
  1. Draw their finish nodes and draw arrows
  between node 1 and those finish nodes. Put the
  activity letter or name and duration estimate on
  the associated arrow
• 2. Continue drawing the network diagram, working
  from left to right. Look for bursts and merges.
  Bursts occur when a single node is followed by
  two or more activities. A merge occurs when two
  or more nodes precede a single node
• 3. Continue drawing the project network diagram
  until all activities are included on the diagram
  that have dependencies
• 4. As a rule of thumb, all arrowheads should face
  toward the right, and no arrows should cross on
  an AOA network diagram

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Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM)

• Activities are represented by boxes
• Arrows show relationships between activities
• More popular than ADM method and used by project
  management software
• Better at showing different types of dependencies

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Figure 5-3. Task Dependency Types
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Figure 5-4. Sample Precedence Diagramming Method
(PDM) Network Diagram for Project X
Project 98 file
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Activity Duration Estimating

• After defining activities and determining their
  sequence, the next step in time management is
  duration estimating
• Duration includes the actual amount of time
  worked on an activity plus elapsed time
• People doing the work should help create
  estimates, and an expert should review them

71
Schedule Development

• Schedule development uses results of the other
  time management processes to determine the start
  and end date of the project and its activities
• Ultimate goal is to create a realistic project
  schedule that provides a basis for monitoring
  project progress for the time dimension of the
  project
• Important tools and techniques include Gantt
  charts, PERT analysis, and critical path analysis

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Gantt Charts

• Gantt charts provide a standard format for
  displaying project schedule information by
  listing project activities and their
  corresponding start and finish dates in a
  calendar format
• Symbols include
• A black diamond milestones or significant events
  on a project with zero duration
• Thick black bars summary tasks
• Lighter horizontal bars tasks
• Arrows dependencies between tasks

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Figure 5-5. Gantt Chart for Project X
Project 98 file
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Figure 5-6. Gantt Chart for Software Launch
Project
Project 98 file
75
Figure 5-7. Sample Tracking Gantt Chart
white diamond slipped milestone two bars
planned and actual times
Project 98 file
76
Critical Path Method (CPM)

• CPM is a project network analysis technique used
  to predict total project duration
• A critical path for a project is the series of
  activities that determines the earliest time by
  which the project can be completed
• The critical path is the longest path through the
  network diagram and has the least amount of slack
  or float

77
Finding the Critical Path

• First develop a good project network diagram
• Add the durations for all activities on each path
  through the project network diagram
• The longest path is the critical path

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Figure 5-8. Determining the Critical Path for
Project X
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More on the Critical Path

• If one of more activities on the critical path
  takes longer than planned, the whole project
  schedule will slip unless corrective action is
  taken
• Misconceptions
• The critical path is not the one with all the
  critical activities it only accounts for time
• There can be more than one critical path if the
  lengths of two or more paths are the same
• The critical path can change as the project
  progresses

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Using Critical Path Analysis to Make Schedule
Trade-offs

• Knowing the critical path helps you make schedule
  trade-offs
• Free slack or free float is the amount of time an
  activity can be delayed without delaying the
  early start of any immediately following
  activities
• Total slack or total float is the amount of time
  an activity may be delayed from its early start
  without delaying the planned project finish date

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Table 5-1. Free and Total Float or Slack for
Project X
82
Techniques for Shortening a Project Schedule

• Shortening durations of critical tasks by adding
  more resources or changing their scope
• Crashing tasks by obtaining the greatest amount
  of schedule compression for the least incremental
  cost
• Fast tracking tasks by doing them in parallel or
  overlapping them

83
Shortening Project Schedules
Original schedule
Shortenedduration
Overlapped tasks
84
Many Horror Stories Related to Project Schedules

• See pages 211-212 in Schwalbe for a description
  of how PMs has misused Microsoft Project
• Creating realistic schedules and sticking to them
  is a key challenge of project management

85
Importance of Updating Critical Path Data

• It is important to update project schedule
  information
• The critical path may change as you enter actual
  start and finish dates
• If you know the project completion date will
  slip, negotiate with the project sponsor

86
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

• PERT is a network analysis technique used to
  estimate project duration when there is a high
  degree of uncertainty about the individual
  activity duration estimates
• PERT uses probabilistic time estimates based on
  using optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic
  estimates of activity durations

87
PERT Formula and Example

• PERT weighted average formula
• optimistic time 4X most likely time
  pessimistic time
• 6
• Example
• PERT weighted average
• 8 workdays 4 X 10 workdays 24 workdays 12
  days 6
• where 8 optimistic time, 10 most likely time,
  and 24 pessimistic time

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Controlling Changes to the Project Schedule

• Perform reality checks on schedules
• Allow for contingencies
• Dont plan for everyone to work at 100 capacity
  all the time
• Hold progress meetings with stakeholders and be
  clear and honest in communicating schedule issues

89
Working with People Issues

• Strong leadership helps projects succeed more
  than good PERT charts do
• Project managers should use
• empowerment
• incentives
• discipline
• negotiation

90
What Went Right?
Chris Higgins used the discipline he learned in
the Army to transform project management into a
cultural force at Bank of America. Higgins
learned that taking time on the front end of a
project can save significant time and money on
the back end. As a quartermaster in the Army,
when Higgins' people had to pack tents, he
devised a contest to find the best way to fold a
tent and determine the precise spots to place the
pegs and equipment for the quickest possible
assembly. Higgins used the same approach when he
led an interstate banking initiative to integrate
incompatible check processing, checking account,
and savings account platforms in various
states. Law mandated that the banks solve the
problem in one year or less. Higgins' project
team was pushing to get to the coding phase of
the project quickly, but Higgins held them back.
He made the team members analyze, plan, and
document requirements for the system in such
detail that it took six months just to complete
that phase. But the discipline up front enabled
the software developers on the team to do all of
the coding in only three months, and the project
was completed on time.
91
Using Software to Assist in Time Management

• Software for facilitating communications helps
  people exchange schedule-related information
• Decision support models help analyze trade-offs
  that can be made
• Project management software can help in various
  time management areas

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Table 6-2. Project 2002 Features Related to
Project Time Management
93
Words of Caution on Using Project Management
Software

• Many people misuse project management software
  because they dont understand important concepts
  and have not had good training
• You must enter dependencies to have dates adjust
  automatically and to determine the critical path
• You must enter actual schedule information to
  compare planned and actual progress

94
Discussion Questions

• Why do you think schedule issues often cause the
  most conflicts on projects?
• Explain as clearly as possible what a critical
  path is and why a project manager should be
  concerned about it.
• What skills of a project manager described
  earlier do you think are most important for time
  management?

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