Vermont Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Study Draft Findings

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Vermont Electric Energy Efficiency Potential
Study Draft Findings

• April 10, 2006

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Overview of Presentation

• Key findings from draft report of April 9, 2006
• Load forecast for Vermont (1.5 a year before
  DSM, 1.0 a year after DSM)
  
• mWh savings potential base case
• Sources of electric energy savings potential
• Cost effectiveness results
• Annual implementation costs
• Rate impacts
• Key assumptions
• Findings by Sector

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mWh Savings Potential
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Key Sources of Savings Potential for Max. Ach
Cost Effective Base Case

• Residential lighting, electric water heater
  fuel conversion, space heat fuel conversion,
  standby power
  
• Commercial lighting, refrigeration, cooling
• Industrial industrial lamps and fixtures, motors

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Cost Effectiveness Findings-Societal Test
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Annual Implementation Costs Base Case

• Base case assumes EVT pays incentives equivalent
  to 50 of incremental measure costs
  
• Annual incentives costs are 17.4 million
• Total annual implementation costs are 39.5
  million

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Rate Impacts Base Case

• Annual implementation costs are 39.5 million
• Annual kWh sales decline by 19.4 by 2015
• Lost revenues are calculated based upon VDPS
  forecast of retail rates in Vermont
  
• Savings to Vermonters based on AESC Study Group
  avoided generation costs and avoided TD costs
  provided by VDPS staff

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Key Assumptions

• New benefit/cost screening model
• Line losses
• Reserve margin
• Electric avoided costs and fossil fuel prices
• Externality adders
• Maximum achievable penetration rate for
  efficiency measures
  

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New Benefit-Cost Screening Model

• Built by GDS Associates over the past five years
• Operates in an Excel environment
• Has been approved by regulators in other States
• Can handle over 110 energy efficiency measures
• User-friendly and easy to use

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Key Assumptions Line Losses
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Key Assumptions for Electric Avoided Costs

• Electric generation avoided costs for Vermont
  from December 2005 AESC Study Group report
  
• Fossil fuel prices - from December 2005 AESC
  Study Group report
  
• TD avoided capacity costs from VDPS (163 per
  kW in 2005 dollars)
  
• Reserve margin of 13.8 provided by VDPS staff

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Key Assumptions for Externality Adders for
Vermont Societal Test

• Non energy benefits adder of .0081 per kWh
  saved (in 2005 dollars) applied to electricity
  savings
  
• Non energy benefits adder for fossil fuel
  savings obtained from VDPS staff
  
• Costs of electric energy efficiency measures
  reduced by 10

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Key Assumptions for Maximum Penetration of
Efficiency Measures

• Maximum penetration rate of 80 for base case
  where incentives of 50 of incremental cost are
  paid (base case)
  
• Maximum penetration rate of 85 for base case
  where incentives of 100 of incremental cost are
  paid (high incentives case)
  

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Residential Sector Findings

• April 10, 2006

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Vermont Residential Sector

• Much has already been accomplished in VT
• EVT has already saved a significant amount of
  electric energy and demand
  
• This is equivalent to a significant percentage of
  2005 annual kWh sales in Vermont

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Residential Savings Summary

• Significant cost effective electricity savings
  potential still exists
  
• Important to understand how electricity is used
  in the residential sector
  
• Residential sector is forecast to have the
  fastest kWh sales growth for 2006 to 2015 (1.6)
  
• Majority of savings potential is in lighting and
  electric water heater fuel conversion
  

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Commercial Sector Findings

• April 10, 2006

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Commercial Sector Summary

• Significant cost effective electricity savings
  potential still exists
  
• Important to understand how electricity is used
  in the commercial sector
  
• Commercial sector is forecast to have the slowest
  growth for 2006 to 2015 (0.5 a year)
  
• Majority of savings potential is in lighting and
  refrigeration end uses
  

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VT Commercial Sector Segmentation

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VT Commercial Sector Segmentation

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Commercial Measures Summary
Note All measures were analyzed separately for
each of the ten building types.
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Commercial Energy Efficiency Potential Savings
Summary
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Commercial Energy Efficiency Potential Savings
Summary
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Breakdown of Commercial kWh Savings for Existing
Commercial Buildings
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Breakdown of Commercial kWh Savings for New
Commercial Buildings
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Commercial Sector Supply Curve
for Existing Buildings
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Commercial Sector Supply Curve
for New Buildings
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Industrial Sector Findings

• April 10, 2006

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