20% Wind by 2030

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AWEA DOE NREL
20 Wind by 2030

• A Picture of 20 US Electrical Energy from Wind
• What would it look like?
• Does it make sense? Is it feasible?
• What are its estimated costs and benefits?
• What are the major hurdles?
• Some Utility Sector Considerations

Ed DeMeo Renewable Energy Consulting Services,
Inc.
Nebraska Power Wind Workshop November 19, 2007
Boulder, Colorado
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Convergence of Strategic Thrusts

• Vision of wind as a large energy contributor
  emerging over last two years
• AWEA Board strategic planning
• Presidents Advanced Energy Initiative
• NWCC May 2006 forum
• Build on work underway
• Wind Industry Growth Potential (BV/AWEA)
• WinDS generation expansion modeling (DOE/NREL)
• AWEA-DOE-NREL collaboration on Wind Vision
  Initiative
• Announced at WindPower 2006 (June)
• Over 90 individuals involved (industry,
  government, NGOs)

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Broad Objectives

• Examine wind as one element of a portfolio of
  energy solutions responsive to national needs
• Energy security
• Environmental integrity
• Economic development
• Change the way energy leaders think about wind
  power

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AWEA DOE NREL
A Vision for Wind Power

• Wind energy will provide 20 of U.S. electricity
  needs by 2030, securing Americas leadership in
  reliable, clean energy technology. As an
  inexhaustible and affordable domestic resource,
  wind strengthens our energy security, improves
  the quality of the air we breathe, slows climate
  change, and revitalizes rural communities.

Critically examined by project technical team
September 2006 through June 2007
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10 of Existing Transmission Capacity Available
to Wind
Realistically, How Much Wind Is Available in the
U.S.?
2010 Costs w/o PTC, 1,600/MW-mile, w/o
Integration costs
Source Black Veatch/NREL
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Regional Wind Resource
2010 Costs w/o PTC, 1,600/MW-mile, w/o
Integration costs
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20 Wind Vision
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AWEA DOE NREL
20 Wind by 2030
Costs and Impacts
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Incremental Direct Costs of 20 Wind Vision
Scenario
7 real discount rate is used, as per OMB
guidance the time period of analysis is
2007-2050, with WinDS modeling used through 2030,
and extrapolations used for 2030-2050.
Assumes 11,000 kWh/year average consumption
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2006 Minnesota Wind Integration Study (MNDOC)
Integration of 20 Wind Energy Can Be Managed

• Total integration costs for three penetration
  levels and three study years (load-following and
  regulation costs included)
• Strengthens broad conclusion from a number of
  studies Integration costs generally 10 or less
  of wholesale energy value

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Land Area
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20 Wind Area Comparisons
Anchorage, AK 1,961 mi2
305 GW of Wind Total Footprint 23,830 mi2 Area
Occupied by Turbines, Equipment, Roads 950 mi2
Rhode Island 1,045 mi2
West Virginia 24,087 mi2
12.8 MW/mi2 4 occupancy
Wind equipment occupies an area less than Rhode
Island and less than half of Anchorage, AK
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• Wind Plant Siting and Approval Process as
  Installation Rates Approach 20GW/Year
• Need proactive, efficient approach
• Advance from case-by-case to regional
  consideration
• Need expanded scientific data base e.g.,
  wildlife impacts

16 GW/Yr by 2018
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American Electric Power Plan
AEPs Transmission Vision
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AWEA DOE NREL
20 Wind by 2030
Benefits
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Contributions to the Economy
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20 Wind Vision Employment
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Fuel Savings From Wind
Electricity Sector Fuel Usage
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Cumulative Carbon Savings
CO2 regulation fees from Synapse Energy Economics
(2006). /ton CO2 Lo 10 Med 22 Hi 34.
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Electric Sector CO2 Emissions
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Water Savings
4 Trillion Gallons Saved from 2007-2030
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Results Costs and Benefits

• Incremental direct cost to society
• Reductions in natural gas use and price pressure
• Reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases and
  other atmospheric pollutants
• Reductions in electric-sector water consumption
• Jobs created and other contributions to the
  nations economy

43 billion 11 in 2030 150 billion savings 825
M tons (2030) (electric-sector CO2 nearly
flat-lined) 98 billion savings 8 2007 -
2030 17 in 2030 150,000 direct jobs 440 billion
total
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Achieving the Vision Key Needs

• National will reflected in supportive policies
• Proactive, regional approach to wind plant siting
  and approvals
• Substantial transmission planning and expansion
  to access wind energy resources
• Continued evolution of electric system operation
  policies and procedures, along with electricity
  market development
• Substantial expansion of domestic manufacturing
  for wind turbines and components
• Continued advancement of wind technology

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AWEA DOE NREL
20 Wind by 2030
No fundamental barriers identified to
achieving the 20 wind vision
Substantial net benefits would be realized
Major departures from business as usual would be
required
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Electric Sector Actions to Facilitate 20
WindTransmission and System Integration

• Encourage wind integration studies
• Follow examples of MN, NY and CA
• Facilitate state transmission authorities
• Encourage regional transmission planning
• Encourage recovery of transmission cost in stages
• Planning, siting, permitting early, low hurdle
  for recovery
• Construction higher prudency hurdle
• Encourage energy-based power system planning
• Choose low-carbon energy sources first
• Fill in as needed for system reliability (Xcel MN
  baseload example)
• Evaluate revenue stream for those along the
  rights of way

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Electric Sector Actions to Facilitate 20 Wind
Evolution of Markets

• Promote regional consolidation of balancing
  authority functions (e.g., dispatch, ACE sharing)
• Promote and standardize REC markets
• Facilitate community wind development
• Benefits community and promotes broad acceptance
  of wind
• Encourage utility ownership of wind plants
• Shareholder rewards commensurate with risks
• Assess prospects for very large projects (1000
  MW)
• Identify issues and solutions
• Engage with state and regional wind working groups