The Evolution of Personal Communications

1
3G and Hot Spot Networking
Dennis Roberson SVP CTO
2
World Market Trend (circ fall 2000)
1 Billion Subscribers
WIRELESS INTERNET
580 Million Subscribers
Market Size
1 Billion Subscribers
WIRELESS
INTERNET
380 Million Subscribers
2000
2004
Source Commerce Net Research, NUA.NET, Motorola
3
Advertising in The Economist
4
Wireless Will Surpass Wired Access
Wireless Voice
Wired Voice
Wired Internet
Wireless Internet
Estimate
Source Salomon Smith Barney, Motorola Estimates.
5
Worldwide Cumulative Subscribers
6
New devices are being introduced
Enhanced Devices
Voice/Data/Image/Video
Voice
Voice/Data
3G Candybar Voice, Data, Video
3G Candybar Voice, Data
3G Clam Voice
iMode Voice, Data
3G Clam Voice, Data
2-Way Communicator Data/voice
3G Candybar Voice
Card Phone
PDA/PHS Data, Voice
Electronic Wallet
Mini Computer Data
Embedded
Data
Data/Voice
7
Wireless bandwidth is increasing...
4G
Shared Environments
3.5G
Mobile Television
Video On Demand
3G
Video Streaming
Increasing Value
2.5G
Still Imaging
Mobile Video Conferencing
Audio Streaming
2G
E-Commerce
Mobile Radio
Text Messaging
Voice
E-mail
Data Transmission Speed - kbps
9.6
32
64
128
144
384
2,000 20-gt200K
8
Technology Evolution
9
The Promise of 3G
Video Streaming
2,000
1G
2G
3G
Still Imaging
384
Audio Streaming
144
Text Messaging
128
Data Transmission Speed - k bps
Voice
64
JPEG Still Photos
E-Commerce
32
9.6
0
10
Technology Data Rates
Video Streaming
2,000
1G
2G
3G
WCDMA
Still Imaging
384
EDGE
Audio Streaming
144
cdma2000
Text Messaging
128
Data Transmission Speed - k bps
GPRS
Voice
64
32
GSM, IS-136, IS-95A
9.6
0
11
User Peak Data Rate
12
What has happened to 3G Expectations?
Expectations For Early 3G Deployment
Slippage Of commercial GPRS
Limited WAP Success
Industry Financial Impact
High
Italian Swiss Auction Failures
Bumper German Licensing
Bumper UK Licensing
Terminal Restrictions
Spain Licensing With early TTM
Huge New Entrant Interest
Low
Dec
Jul
Jan
2000
13
Evolution driven by
Demand
Spectrum Cost
Data Efficiency / Capacity
Voice Capacity
Equipment Cost
Availability
14
3G Challenges
Demand
Spectrum Cost
Data Efficiency
Voice Capacity
Equipment Cost
Availability
15
2G Cellular Volume Deterioration
Shipments Millions
16
Cellular Subscriber Growth
Estimates
China
USA
Japan
Germany Italy / UK
India
17
3G Spectrum Costs
Baskerville Forecast Q200
Estimated Cost per Licence in Bn
Raised Half Of expectations
Raised only 20 Of expectations
Postponed Because of lack of interest
Raised only 33 of Expectations
Beauty Contest
Auction
Already Issued Before Forecast
Hybrid
Actual Raised
18
3G Spectrum Availability
3G
3G
Region 2
ITU
1885
2025
2110
2200
1980
2010
1930
2170
2120
3G
3G
PHS
Japan
1885
2025
2110
2200
1895
1918.1
1980
2010
2170
3G
3G
DCS 1800
DCS 1800
DECT
MSS
MSS
Europe
2025
2110
2200
1880
1900
1996
2010
2186
1710
1785
1805
3G
3G
MSS
MSS
China
1885
2025
2110
2200
Broadcast Auxiliary
PCS
PCS
Unl. PCS
Reserve
USA
2110
2200
1850
1910
1930
1990
2150
All Frequencies in MHz
19
3G - Operator Slippages
Original Plan Latest Plan Slippage Publicly
announced reason Vodafone UK Nov-01 Nov-02 12-16
months Handsets SK Telecom May-02 May-03 12
months Handsets, infrastructure Telefonica Aug-01
Jul-02 11 months Licensing relaxation Japan
Telecom Nov-01 Oct-02 8-11 months Gain 3GPP
standards BT Cellnet Dec-01 Sep-02 10
months Infrastructure France Telecom Feb-02 H2-02
5-10 months Handsets NTT May-01 Oct-01 6
months Handsets, software, interference

2001
2002
2003
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Vodafone UK
Nov
Nov
SK Telecom
May
May
Telefonica
Aug
July
Japan Telecom
Nov
Oct
BT Cellnet
Dec
Sep
France Telecom
Feb
Sep/Oct
NTT
Oct
Planned Launch
Revised Launch
Delay in Roll Out
20
Bandwidths Trends Compared(early adopters,
highest bandwidths)
Internet Backbone
Home/WAN
Office LAN
bps
WLAN
Personal Wireless
21
Bandwidth Trends - Personal Wireless
(Mobile/Portable)
4G
3.5G
bps
3G
GPRS
2G
22
Wireless Data Trends
Wide Area Btooth/802.15.3 HiperLAN2 Median2 IEEE
802.11
1000000
100000
WLAN (Fixed)
PAN (Nomadic)
10000
Max Data Rate (Kbps)
W-CDMA
1000
WAN (Fully Mobile)
EDGE
100
GPRS
HSCD
10
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
23
Key WLAN / PAN Radio Technologies
802.11b
802.11a or HiperLAN2
Products Vertical Driver Competition
Enterprise Broadband Home Nomadic
Speed 11 - 22Mbps Technology 2.4GHz, DSS
Speed 22 - 100Mbps Technology 5.XGHz, OFDM
HomeRF2 or 802.11a/e or HL2
HomeRF
Products Set-top box, etc Driver Reduce setup
costs new markets/services
Speed 1.1 Mbps Technology 2.4GHz, FH
Speed 10 - 22 54 Mbps Technology 5.XGHz, OFDM
Bluetooth/802.15.1
802.15.3
Bluetooth2
Products Cell-phones, etc Driver
Competition, new markets products
Speed 20 Mbps Technology 2.4
GHz Strategy Transistion to 5GHz WPAN UWB
Speed 700Kbps Technology 2.4GHz, FH
Speed 2-10 Mbps Technology 2.4GHz FH
2000
2003
2002
2001
2004
All Speeds at RAW bandwidth. Delivered payload
varies
Hotspots may use Enterprise or Nomadic
technologies
24
Broadband Island Scenario
Greater Washington DC Area
Wide Area coverage Provided by 2G Carriers
Mall area coverage provided by Verizon
2.5G GPRS
Broadband 802.11x
Broadband 802.11x
Broadband 802.11x
Requires a new billing model
Pentagon, coverage provided by US Military
Telecom
Reagan Airport, coverage provided by 3rd Party
Vendor
Requires a multi-mode device (GPRS and 802.11)
slide courtesy of Les Eastwood
25
Enterprise Wireless Mobility Model
Level 3 - Regional Low Speed Wireless (56Kbps)
Level 1 - Personal Area Network (.5-10Mbps)
Level 2 - Campus High Speed Wireless
LANs (100Mbps)
26
WLANs and PANs Enhance Cellular
(and Could Threaten 3G)

• Timeliness 11Mbps available now
• Low Cost for Operator/Owner and User
• Free Spectrum 300-500MHz of unlicensed spectrum
• Low equipment cost
• Enables low cost/flat fee Wireless to consumer
• Superior End User Experience
• 54Mb/s vs. 1-2Mb/s
• All existing and future Internet applications
  already work

slide courtesy of Les Eastwood
27
WLAN Cellular Convergence Is there opportunity
here?

28
Integrate Cellular with WLAN
iMGW Platform

• Common Features/Capabilities
• Authentication
• Billing
• Preferences/Call Control
• Access Capable (802.11, BT, Cellular)

Nomadic
Enterprise or Hot Spot
Internet
Benefits Local Access, Common Control Data
Voice Point to Point Roaming VPN over Public
Network Increasing Data Rates in More
Places Seamless Roaming and Billing High Speed
Mobility
802.11 Or Any WLAN Technology
Home
Technology Tailored for a Seamless Solution
29
Beyond 3G (B3G)
1980s
2000s
1990s
2010s
1G
3G
4G
2G
WLAN Hotspots

• B3G key attributes
• interworking and cooperation between different
  Radio Networks
• user as the focus, opportune delivery of the
  content/services
• multi-mode terminals free to camp on any
  available network
• fully IP based
• disruptive technology
• potentially complementary to 3G
• potentially competitive to 3G

UMTS HiperLAN
GPRS 802.11
GPRS DVB
Cellular WLAN Bdcast
30
B3G Vision
Management domain
DVB-T
Composite Service Delivery management (Billing, )
Ipv6 Backbone(s)
Internet IPv4àIPv6
Management Functions
Composite Radio Ressource management (Spectrum
utilization, links/traffic optimization)
Composite Domain Management (mobility, QoS,
multicast, AAA)
A moving IP- subnet

• Main Attributes
• Core network IPv6 based
• Better support of mobility, security and
  unlimited address space
• Wireless access points become IP gateways
• Different radio access technologies deployed
  within a domain
• Optimization of the radio resources

31
Spectrum Allocation at 5 GHz
BRAN/Hiperlan
BRAN/Hiperlan
5.15 - 5.35
5.470 - 5.725
License-exempt 455 MHz
Europe
200mW
1W
MMAC
5.15 - 5.25
Japan
50mW
100 MHz
U-NII
U-NII
Unlicensed 300 MHz
5.15 - 5.35
5.725 -5.825
US
1W
50mW
250mW
32
WLAN Standards Technologies
2.4 GHz 4ch. (80MHz)

• 11Mbs/channel net bit rate
• First on market, market education
• Limited in data rate, and capacity (spectrum,
  interference)

802.11b
5 GHz US 12 ch. (300MHz) EU 19 ch.
(455MHz) JP 5 ch. (100MHz)

• 54 Mbps/channel net bit rate
• Simple and adapted to corporate apps
• Wireless Ethernet", no QoS, limited for
  multimedia
• Future 802.11e, h incl. QoS, DFSTPC, security,
  roaming

802.11a

• 54 Mbps/channel net bit rate
• Multimedia ready (supports QoS, Ethernet, ATM,
  1394)
• Not widely adopted - pushed by Europe
• Better suited to Home Multimedia applications

HiperLAN 2

• 802.11aeh HL2
• Japan is going 11a for Corporate, and HiSWAN
  (NTT) for Home Public

IEEE802.11a evolutionary approach ? HiperLAN2
support of multimedia
33
Forces affecting the Future of 5 GHz WLAN
Economy/Industry Downturn
Range
Consumer Confusion
22 Mbps 2.4 GHz solutions
Technical Challenges
Enabling Applications
V O L U M E
Security
Cost
2.4 GHz interference
Quality of Service
Speed/Media needs
Capacity collapse 2.4GHz
T I M E
34
Wireless System Landscape
Mobility, Functions
High Mobility speech, some data Limited
Mobility Speech, data Fixed Access, High speed
data In-Home / In-Building
1G
2G
3G
4G
WLAN / PAN
1Kbps
10Kbps
100Kbps
1Mbps
10Mbps
100Mbps
Data Rate to the User