Modeling Goals and Objectives Future Directions

1
Modeling Goals and Objectives / Future Directions
Break-out Group 1

• August 23, 2006

2
Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Focus Area

• The Legacy Roadmap for
• Carbon Cycle Ecosystems

3
Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems
Knowledge of the interactions of global
biogeochemical cycles and terrestrial and marine
ecosystems with global environmental change and
their implications for the Earths climate,
productivity, and natural resources is needed to
understand and protect our home planet.

• Important Concerns
• Potential greenhouse warming (CO2, CH4) and
  ecosystem interactions with climate
• Carbon management (e.g., capacity of plants,
  soils, and the ocean to sequester carbon)
• Productivity of ecosystems (food, fiber, fuel)
• Ecosystem health and the sustainability of
  ecosystem goods and services
• Biodiversity and invasive species

NASA provides the global perspective and unique
combination of interdisciplinary science,
state-of-the-art Earth system modeling, and
diverse synoptic observations needed to document,
understand, and project carbon cycle dynamics and
changes in terrestrial and marine ecosystems and
land cover.
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Integrated global analyses
Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap
Human-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions (Model-Data
Fusion, Assimilation) Global Air-Sea Flux
Sub-regional sources/sinks

T
Funded
High-Resolution Atmospheric CO2
Unfunded
Process controls errors in sink reduced
Southern Ocean Carbon Program, Air-Sea
CO2 Flux
Partnership
Models w/improved ecosystem functions
T Technology development
Physiology Functional Types
T
Reduced flux uncertainties coastal carbon
dynamics
Coastal Carbon
Field Campaign
Reduced flux uncertainties global carbon
dynamics
Global Ocean Carbon / Particle Abundance
Goals Global productivity and land cover change
at fine resolution biomass and carbon fluxes
quantified useful ecological forecasts and
improved climate change projections
Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, Disturbance
T
Terrestrial carbon stocks species habitat
characterized
CH4 sources characterized and quantified
Global CH4 Wetlands, Flooding Permafrost
Knowledge Base
Global Atmospheric CO2 (OCO)
Regional carbon sources/sinks quantified for
planet
N. American Carbon Program
N. Americas carbon budget quantified
Effects of tropical deforestation quantified
uncertainties in tropical carbon source reduced
Land Use Change in Amazonia
2002 Global productivity and land cover
resolution coarse Large uncertainties in
biomass, fluxes, disturbance, and coastal events
Models Computing Capacity
Process Understanding
Case Studies
Improvements
P
Land Cover (Landsat)
LDCM
Land Cover (OLI)
Systematic Observations
Ocean Color (SeaWiFS, MODIS)
Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPP)
Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPOESS)
Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS)
Vegetation, Fire (AVHRR, MODIS)
IPCC
IPCC
2010
2012
2014
2015
2008
2002
2004
2006
Global C Cycle
Global C Cycle
NA Carbon
NA Carbon
5
Integrated global analyses
Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap
Human-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions (Model-Data
Fusion, Assimilation) Global Air-Sea Flux
Sub-regional sources/sinks

T
Funded
High-Resolution Atmospheric CO2
Unfunded
Process controls errors in sink reduced
Southern Ocean Carbon Program, Air-Sea
CO2 Flux
Partnership
Models w/improved ecosystem functions
T Technology development
Physiology Functional Types
T
Reduced flux uncertainties coastal carbon
dynamics
Coastal Carbon
Field Campaign
Reduced flux uncertainties global carbon
dynamics
Global Ocean Carbon / Particle Abundance
Goals Global productivity and land cover change
at fine resolution biomass and carbon fluxes
quantified useful ecological forecasts and
improved climate change projections
Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, Disturbance
T
Terrestrial carbon stocks species habitat
characterized
CH4 sources characterized and quantified
Global CH4 Wetlands, Flooding Permafrost
Knowledge Base
Global Atmospheric CO2 (OCO)
Regional carbon sources/sinks quantified for
planet
N. American Carbon Program
N. Americas carbon budget quantified
Effects of tropical deforestation quantified
uncertainties in tropical carbon source reduced
Land Use Change in Amazonia
2002 Global productivity and land cover
resolution coarse Large uncertainties in
biomass, fluxes, disturbance, and coastal events
Models Computing Capacity
Process Understanding
Case Studies
Improvements
P
Land Cover (Landsat)
LDCM
Land Cover (OLI)
Systematic Observations
Ocean Color (SeaWiFS, MODIS)
Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPP)
Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPOESS)
Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS)
Vegetation, Fire (AVHRR, MODIS)
IPCC
IPCC
2010
2012
2014
2015
2008
2002
2004
2006
Global C Cycle
Global C Cycle
NA Carbon
NA Carbon
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Predicting Carbon Cycling
Anticipated Outcomes and Uses of Results
Result / Capability
Products / Uses for Decision Support
Quantitative global monitoring evaluation
tools to assess the efficacy of carbon
management (e.g. sequestration in biomass) to
assess agricultural, forest, and fisheries
productivity for use in verifying emissions
and/or sequestration reporting by nations/sectors.
Global primary productivity and land cover change
time series variability and trends quantified at
moderate to fine spatial resolution. Carbon
sources and sinks identified and quantified.
Quantification of carbon and nutrient storage and
fluxes, disturbance and recovery processes, and
ecosystem health. Quantification of controlling
processes and their interactions.
Maps, data products and information on
relationships among them as input for decision
support systems. Simulation models that enable
If , then scenarios to be explored.
Models that - achieve carbon balance -
reliably characterize interannual variability
and sub-regional processes -
quantitatively portray multiple, interacting
controlling processes - are able to correctly
simulate past land cover, ecosystem
dynamics and biogeochemical cycling
Ecological Forecasts Projections of changes in
carbon sources and sinks, land cover, and
ecosystem dynamics due to combinations of
real-world forcings of global environmental
change with sub-regional specificity and good
reliability for 6 mos. to 2 years into the
future (e.g., harmful algal blooms, invasive
species). ---------------------------------------
----- Inputs for Climate Projections Credible,
useful projections of future climate change
(including improved ecosystem feedbacks and
projections of CO2 and CH4 concentrations) for
50-100 years into the future for a variety of
policy-relevant if , then scenarios.
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Carbon Cycle Ecosystems Science Questions

• How are global ecosystems changing?
• What trends in atmospheric constituents and
  solar radiation are driving global climate?
• What changes are occurring in global land cover
  and land use, and what are their causes?
• How do ecosystems, land cover and biogeochemical
  cycles respond to and affect global environmental
  change?
• What are the consequences of land cover and land
  use change for human societies and the
  sustainability of ecosystems?
• What are the consequences of climate change and
  increased human activities for coastal regions?
  
• How will carbon cycle dynamics and terrestrial
  and marine ecosystems change in the future?
• Question shared with other Focus
  Areas

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Why Carbon Cycle?

• Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 CH4, both
  greenhouse gases, have increased dramatically in
  the past 200 years due to fossil fuel burning and
  land cover/use change
• There is potential to mitigate climate change
  effects by enhancing biospheric carbon uptake and
  storage (i.e., carbon sequestration)
• Better predictions of future atmospheric CO2
  CH4 and ecosystem carbon dynamics are needed to
  improve climate projections and scenarios used
  for decision making

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Research Challenges Carbon Cycle

• Closing the global carbon budget ( quantifying
  components)
• quantifying North Americas carbon sources and
  sinks, understanding their interannual
  variability, and explaining causes
• locating and explaining the Northern Hemisphere
  terrestrial sink
• determining the size, function, and controls on
  oceanic sinks
• clarifying carbon source/sink dynamics and trends
  in the tropics
• Projecting future concentrations of CO2 and CH4
  and changes in terrestrial and aquatic carbon
  cycling dynamics
• developing capable carbon cycle, ecosystem, and
  carbon data assimilation models
• quantifying errors and characterizing
  uncertainties associated with model inputs and
  outputs
• collaborating with modelers in other Focus Areas
  to develop fully coupled, integrated Earth system
  models that incorporate projections of future
  carbon cycle dynamics

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Why Ecosystems?

• Ecosystems sustain us, providing food, fiber,
  energy, shelter, clean air water, biodiversity,
  recycling of elements, wildlife habitat, and
  cultural spiritual returns (i.e., ecosystem
  goods services)
• Ecosystems are changing and we are causing many
  of the changes
• thresholds regime shifts
• alterations in resource availability
• loss of biodiversity
• economic an societal impacts
• Feedbacks to the Earth system
• climate, energy water cycle
• atmospheric chemistry biogeochemical cycles

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Research Challenges Ecosystems

• Understanding the effects of global climate
  change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
• evaluating the combined effects of multiple,
  interacting influences and stresses on ecosystem
  structure and function
• characterizing and quantifying disturbances
• understanding threshold effects and regime shifts
• developing the capability to effectively model
  ecosystem dynamics and changes
• Characterizing and quantifying feedbacks to the
  climate system (physical and chemical)
• Learning how to manage ecosystems for multiple
  end uses
• Documenting the range and distribution of
  organisms of importance (species with vital
  functions, invasive species, pathogens, etc.) and
  modeling to predict future distributions
• Understanding relationships between biodiversity
  and ecosystem functioning (e.g., productivity,
  biogeochemical cycling, biological services,
  resilience adaptability)

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Why Land Cover and Land Use Change?

• Changes in land cover/use are an independent
  forcing of global environmental change
• These changes are under strong human influence
  and can be managed to serve human needs
• Past land use practices affect present future
  ecosystem function (i.e., land use legacies)
• Land cover/use changes interact with climate
  variability change to effect global change
• They cause direct feedbacks to the climate system
  
• They affect ecosystem goods services and carbon
  dynamics

13
Research Challenges Land Cover and Land Use
Change

• Documenting the spatial and temporal dynamics of
  land cover and land use change
• Developing understanding of the combined human
  and natural causes of land cover and land use
  changes and how they interact at regional and
  global scales
• Characterizing and quantifying the role of
  fragmentation and degradation, the role of
  multiple drivers of change, the role of
  institutions, and the interactions among drivers
  and types of land use change
• Projecting land use and land cover 5-50 years
  into the future

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Applications of National Priority
Public Health
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Research Challenges Carbon Cycle Ecosystems
Research ? Applications

• Advancing the remote sensing, spatial analysis,
  information management, and decision support
  tools needed to evaluate management and
  mitigation options for responding to
• climate change
• management of carbon in the environment
• threats to sustainable resource use and the
  productivity of agricultural systems and coastal
  fisheries
• changes in or loss of habitat and reductions in
  biodiversity
• non-indigenous species invasions

16
CCE Missions / Mission Studies

• Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, and
  Disturbance. Vegetation height profiles over the
  Earths land surface are needed to estimate
  biomass and carbon stocks and to quantify biomass
  recovery following disturbance.
• - Candidate technological approaches are lidar
  profiling, P-band SAR, and interferometric SAR
  (InSAR). The combination of a profiling lidar and
  a P-band (or L-band?) SAR represents the most
  promising approach to meeting the requirements
  for accuracy and global coverage.
• - Relevant Decadal Survey White Papers Biomass
  Monitoring Mission (BioMM), also Multiplatform
  Interferometric SAR for Forest Structure, Biomass
  Monitoring Mission Lidar (BioMM-L), InSAR
  Applications for Exploration of the Earth, and,
  possibly, Structure and Inventory of Vegetated
  Ecosystems (STRIVE)
• Physiology and Functional Types. Global
  observations of plant functional types and
  physiological function are required. Spectral
  coverage and sampling, spatial resolution, and
  temporal sampling must be optimized for
  terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and to match
  their physical-ecological scales of variability.
• - A polar orbiter for land with an imaging
  spectrometer and a polar orbiter for the ocean
  carrying an advanced spectrometer paired with
  multiple active lidars seem most feasible, but a
  single mission may be possible.
• - Relevant Decadal Survey White Papers Flora
  Mission for Ecosystem Composition, Disturbance,
  and Productivity also PHYTOSAT A Space Mission
  to Observe Phytoplankton and Assess its Role in
  the Oceanic Carbon Cycle

17
CCE Missions / Mission Studies

• Global Ocean Carbon Ecosystems and Coastal
  Processes. New space-based global observations
  are needed over an expanded spectral range and
  with finer resolution to allow for the accurate
  separation of in-water constituents (e.g.,
  colored dissolved organic material, particle
  abundance, functional groups) and support the
  evolution of advanced ocean color algorithms.
• - A new baseline mission to characterize ocean
  constituents and make supporting aerosol
  observations to effectively utilize the new
  spectral ocean color information. This mission
  provides global coverage of continental shelves
  and near-shore environments and key polar
  regions.
• - Relevant Decadal Survey White Papers OCEaNS
  (Ocean Carbon, Ecosystems, and Near-shore)
• Profiles of Atmospheric CO2. Measure high
  resolution columns and profiles of CO2 and other
  biogeochemically produced greenhouses gases in
  order to locate and quantify surface sources and
  sinks. This missions measurements of carbon
  sources and sinks will be used to develop and
  explain annual global carbon budgets, evaluate
  international reporting of greenhouse gas
  emissions and carbon sequestration, and as inputs
  to decision support for carbon accounting and
  management.
• - Determine distribution of CO2 abundance with
  improved sensitivity in the lowermost 5 km of the
  troposphere with measurement precision of 1-2 ppm
  CO2 on a grid no coarser than 100km x 100km and
  an ability to screen for clouds.
• - Relevant Decadal Survey White Papers

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Modeling Break-out Questions

• 1. Modeling goals objectives/future
  directionsChairs George Hurtt, Dennis Ojima
  Room 1109/1111
• What are the most important modeling needs and
  challenges for NASA to address in the next few
  years?
• How could the current program "portfolio" be
  improved?
• What should the role of Terrestrial Ecology and
  related programs be in the advancement toward
  integrated Earth system models?
• What results from this area feed into NASA's
  Ecological Forecasting program? How can this
  transition be improved/strengthened? How do we
  know/decide when a modeling capability has
  matured to the stage it can be used in decision
  support?