Climate Change: Issues and Measures for HD in Asia

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Climate ChangeIssues and Measures for HD in Asia

• Multi-CO Technical Capacity Development Workshop
• Measuring Human Development
• Ha Noi, Viet Nam
• 1-2 June 2010

Human Development Report Unit UNDP Regional
Center for Asia Pacific, Colombo Office
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Key Characteristics of Asia
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Megacities with dense populations abound in
Asia (Population Map of Major Asian Cities)
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Tracking the Causes of Rising Emissions

• Reduced carbon sinks - land use change,
  deforestation
• Indonesia Land-use change and deforestation
  estimated to release 2.6 Gt.CO2 annuallyaround
  six times the emissions from energy and
  agriculture combined
• Cambodia, illegal logging of hardwood timbers for
  export was responsible for much of the 30
  reduction in primary rainforest cover since
  2000one of the most rapid losses recorded by the
  FAO
• Increasing modern energy demand for growth
• Production, consumption and exchange need
  increased energy use
• China, India, Vietnam etc.

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Dilemmas Modern Energy Use and Human Development
have a Strong Positive Relationship

• Poverty reduction
• Easier in the presence of growth
• MDGs
• Without an adequate increase in quality and
  quantity of energy services, societies cannot
  meet the goals

But historic per capita CO2 emissions still low
in Asia UK, USA 1,100 tonnes, compared with just
66 tonnes for China and 23 tonnes for India.
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CC Dilemmas

• All environmental problems are not climate
  change the more visible pollution gets more
  attention CC is less understood how can we make
  it more visible
• Everyone affected and needs to adapt but the
  relatively privileged need to mitigate
• Costs now (financial, lifestyle) benefits mainly
  in the future, especially for the better-off
• Uncomfortable tradeoffs politically fraught

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Key areas for HD impacts
South Asia
East Asia
Contd.
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Vulnerable Coastal PopulationsDramatic impacts
on social and economic indicators

• Coastal population high and rapidly rising
• 130m in China 40m in Viet Nam
• concentrations in large cities like Shanghai, Ho
  Chi Minh City
• Urban pop expected to double from 665 m in 2000
  to 1.2 b people by 2030)
• Countries affected Viet Nam and China the most
  also Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia

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Measuring impacts on coastal population

• Large scale inundation affecting major economic
  activities tourism
• Flooding of Mekong (15-20,000 km2) river delta
  inundate it fully
• - expose land to extreme salinity - 45
• - crop damage - rice productivity cut by 9 -
  food security
• Viet Nam 1 m rise
• - displacement of people 22m
• GDP loss 10
• Key CC Impacts EA

• Typhoon frequency average of 6-8 p.a.
• Mangroves loss 2,500 km2 with a 1m sea level
  rise (Asia)
• Loss of coral reefs 30 estimated over next 30
  years in Asia
• Decline in fish larvae abundance
• Land salinity increases
• Coastal people at risk of flooding 2.6-18.8m
  persons by 2100 in SEA

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Water Shortages and Floods

• Dry regions becoming drier wet regions wetter
• water shortages in arid/ semi-arid regions
• increased precipitation in temperate /tropical
  Asia during summer monsoon cause more frequent
  and severe floods
• Annual river water flow
• decline in Mekong River 16-24 by 2050
• Area under glaciers (melting glaciers)
• shrinkage of area by 80 over the Tibetan plateau
  by the 2030s (China also Bhutan, Nepal)
• Changes in flows and seasonality
• adverse impacts on sensitive and economically
  productive wetlands (e.g. Tônlé Sap in Cambodia)

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Water-linked HD Implications

• Agriculture, fisheries, forestry domestic food
  security, rural livelihoods
• Industrial, commercial domestic stress
  negative for GDP, and quality of daily human life
  
• HD impacts exacerbated by rapid urbanization
• Migration, water competition/conflicts
• Groundwater quality quantity pollution,
  salinity, extraction
• Sanitation systems health

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Water-linked Climate Hazards for HD
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Natural Disasters Man-made Natural Disasters

• Share of global natural disasters in Asia 80 of
  the natural disasters worldwide occur in Asia
  and of these, 80 are hydro-meteorological or
  climate-related
• Population affected by at least one natural
  disaster Over 50 of South Asians (gt 750 m
  people) affected in the past two decades

Gender Disproportionate impact on women Mental
health Increased behavioral problems among
children following flooding (e.g. Bangladesh)
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Disaster Implications Sudden and Creeping

• Fatalities Bdesh, India account for 76 of all
  deaths from cyclones in the world
• 2 of 3 worlds deadliest cyclones occurred in
  Bangladesh, causing 300,000 deaths in the 1970
  and 140,000 deaths in the 1991 cyclone
• Bangladesh, India, southern Nepal and Pakistan
• Displacement Monsoon floods/ storms in SA
  displaced over 21 million people in 2007
• Health, Education India, Bdesh outbreaks of
  diarrhea, respiratory infections schools
  disrupted
• Economy Local income cuts can be severe for
  people overall average on GDP may be less
• Key CC Impacts SA

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Retreating Himalayan Glaciers Water Impacts

• Himalayas vital life sustaining water resource
  for SA (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal,
  Bhutan)
• Perennial rivers could become seasonal Ganges,
  Indus, Brahmaputra others
• GLOF Floods from outbursts of glacial lakes,
  expanding at alarming rates (Nepal)
• Life, health, livelihood 1.5 b people supported
  in the floodplains
• Water shortages (unparalleled scale) No
  replacement water-source available
• Agriculture and economic structure Huge changes
  to cope with retreating glaciers
• Key CC Impacts SA

Accelerated rate of retreat of Gangotri glacier,
Uttarachal, since 1780 (image from NASA)
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Agriculture and Food Security

• Food strategic priority of every society and
  policy
• Agriculture, including fisheries and forestry
  Share of GDP, Share of employment and share of
  land use all high in Asia, especially South
  Asia
• Rural economy faced relative neglect in the
  pursuit of growth climate impacts complicating
  factor serious implications for food systems

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CC Indicators Agriculture Food Security

• Increased incidence of weather extremes onset of
  rainfall duration frequency of drought and
  floods
• Increase in agri-water demand gt 6-10 for every
  1 degree C rise in temperature
• Variations of rainfall and reduction of
  precipitation big impact on livelihoods of poor
  farmers (India and Sri Lanka)
• HD indicators poor for vulnerable people around
  river basins (Iran and India)

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Agriculture and Food Security Rivers

• The Mekong River
• Multi-country and geographic spread (6 EA
  countries) eco/env/soc
• Employment - agriculture, fisheries and forestry
  employ 85 of the basin population, producing
  rice for some 300 m people
• Water supply decrease with increased evaporation
  by 10-15

The Yangtze River Geographic spread covering 2
million sq-km, 1/5 of Chinas land
area Population coverage home to gt 500 m
people, nearly half of Chinas population one of
the most densely populated river basins on
earth GDP accounts for more than 40 of Chinas
GDP over 40 of total inv in fixed assets
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Implications Agriculture and Food Security

• Increased risk of hunger (266 million Asians may
  face hunger by 2080)
• Rain, water shortages linked to nutritional
  status and girls deaths (India)
• Decline in net productivity of grasslands and
  milk yield - impacts on herders through livestock
  effects

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Climate Models Scenarios for Agriculture and
Food Security

• Bangladesh Production--a 4C temperature
  increase could reduce rice production by 30
  wheat by 50
• India Farm income decreases-- a 2-3.5C
  temperature increase associated with a net farm
  revenue reduction of 925
• Indonesia Falling yields--4 for rice 50 for
  maize
• Pakistan Falling yields--losses of 6-9 for
  wheat with a 1C increase in temperature

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Other Impacts Health

• Exacerbation of cholera due to increases in
  temperature
• Mutation of dengue virus due to warmer
  temperatures, leading to an increase in
  fatalities in the rainy season
• Increased endemic morbidity and mortality due to
  diarrhoea all over Asia aggravated by floods and
  droughts
• Increase in infectious diseases for livestock

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Other Impacts Exacerbation of Poverty,
Vulnerability Long-term consequences are much
worse for the poor disempowered, excluded
majority Their lives, livelihoods, education and
health are also affected across generations,
trapping them in cycles of poverty
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CC-HD SYNERGISTIC NEXUS

• SUSTAINABILITY
• EQUALITY
• EMPOWERMENT
• EFFICIENCY
• PARTICIPATION

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DILEMMAS

• Developing countries will retain and strengthen
  policy focus on economic growth poverty
  reduction is easier in the presence rather than
  absence of growth but growth is closely
  correlated with energy use
• Hardly any country has been able to decouple
  emissions from growth how to widen prosperity
  and reduce inequalities, but control emissions at
  the same time?

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• MESSAGES
• Climate Change A man-made natural disaster that
  is, both, immediate and slowly developing
• Pre-existing versus Aggravating factors CC is an
  aggravating factor that can multiply existing
  development deficits, reverse progress
• Less Visible Unlike pollution, CC is much less
  explicit, making it harder to trigger prevention
  and incentivise better management

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Messages

• Agriculture and the rural sector have been
  sidelined as countries focus on manuf and
  services as engines of growth
• CC can help reintroduce a rural focus with
  beneficial effects on land use, poverty, food
  insecurity and exclusion
• Extreme events get attention more easily, even if
  short-lived (floods, storms) but slower
  degradation is no less important to tackle
  (drought, desertification) for HD

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CAN MEASUREMENT IMPROVE FOCUS ON PEOPLE TRIGGER
BEHAVIOUR CHANGE AND POLICY?HD lens Physical
science dominates discourse on CC we aim to
develop a robust people-centered discourse rooted
in social science S-E-E-E-PMDG links Can guide
search for areas of climate-linked threats and
opportunities for peoples lives
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• Vulnerability f (Exposure, Sensitivity,
  1/Adaptive capacity)

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• Accuracy and reliability of measures Large
  numbers to emphasize urgency triggers search for
  even larger numbers, risks hyperbole - avoid
  large no. bias, retain critical scrutiny for
  credibility - but in a polarised situation
  (divergent interest groups) critical opinions
  could brand one a climate sceptic
• Some effects are hard to quantify Avoid
  sidelining factors that cannot be measured
  combine quantitative and qualitative data

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• Regardless of what countries do to mitigate,
  global warming is expected to continue for some
  time so all societies will HAVE to adapt
  (planned versus involuntary)
• Societies will also NEED to control GHG emissions
  to mitigate if the extent of global warming has
  to be controlled band-aid solutions will be
  just that patchwork

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• We hope better measurement leads us to
• low-GHG-growth and climate resilient
  societiesThank You ?