Prepared by: Erik Toomre

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Develop Next Generation Postal LLVUsing Stimulus
Money for Electric Vehicles?

• Prepared by Erik Toomre
• Mobility Future LLC
• April 10, 2009

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About Mobility Future LLC

• 1-person consulting company now working for a
  venture capital firm in Silicon Valley, CA.
  Looked closely last year at starting electric
  delivery truck business.
• Worked 2.5 years at Tesla Motors

• Was Program Manager successively for motor and
  battery teams
• Handled all regulatory work for 1,000 lb.
  li-ion battery
• Led team that opened Teslas motor factory in
  Taiwan
• Final position was leading Roadster cost-down
  program reporting to CEO before resigning in
  Mar-08.

• Engineering M.S. and Ph.D. from Stanford
  University

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Assertions

• The USPS has demonstrated leadership with the
  size and mix of its alternative fuel fleet.
• It is in the national interest to make a highly
  efficient all-electric postal vehicle.
• Opportunity Use stimulus money to create, test
  and validate ideal electric LLV to set
  specifications for lowest lifecycle cost
  replacement LLV in 2015.

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Potential Paths Forward

• If interest in using stimulus money for
  developing and validating key technology for next
  generation LLV

• Introduce me to other teams already working with
  you on this, or
• Hire me as a consultant to move this forward, or
• Support an ARRA submission in which a new company
  I would form would be your major partner for this
  project, or
• Other?

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EV Solicitation in ARRA

• 2.4 Billion allocated for Electric Vehicles in
  American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).
  Two competitive solicitations announced on March
  19, 2009

• Up to 2B for advanced batteries and related
  drive components. Bids due May 19, 2009.
• Up to 400M for transportation electricification
  demonstration and deployment. Bids due May 13,
  2009.

• 2-to-10 awards of 20-100M each with a planned
  period of performance of 36-48 months.
• Cost share requirement of at least 50 --
  Secretary of Energy can lower this to 25
• Minimum of 100 demonstration vehicles with
  100-mile range
• Requires vehicle OEM as lead or partner in
  project

• Second solicitation could follow -- might be
  better to influence and target this

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USPS LLV is Ideal EV Application
USPS has largest Fleet 212k Vehicles

• Purchase 120M gallons fuel/year (x 2.50
  300M/year)
• 142k are Long Life Vehicles (LLV)
• Average 16 miles/day, 5k miles/year
• Average 10.4 MPG
• Average age is 16-17 years
• Experienced with alternative fuels
• 1991-96 7,500 LLVs conv. to CNG
• 1997 35 LLVs conv. to propane
• 1998-99, 2003 27,000 FFVs
• 2001 500 electric vehicles
• 2003 20 electric 2-ton vehicles
• 2004 Hydrogen fuel cell minivan test started
• 2005 2-ton vehicle conv. to electric hybrid 10
  hybrid electric Ford Escapes test
• Our specialty vehicles dont create big interest
  from traditional auto cos.
• Added Observations
• Repetitive stop-and-go is ideal for regenerative
  braking or even more efficient battery
  ultra-capacitor hybridization
• USPS fleet size and profile is ideally suited to
  influence standards for battery modularity to
  increase range and to avoid battery vendor
  lock-in.

Source US Postal Service Fleet Planning and
Management - Presentation to GovEnergy
2007 Source USPS Alternative Fuel Vehicle
Program Presentation to Alternative Fuels and
Vehicles National Conference 2007
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Timing is Perfect to use Stimulus for USPS
Development Trial prior to Mass Replacement
Opportunity Planned LLV replacement beginning in
2015 allows sufficient time to develop and
validate key technologies for cost-effective
next-generation electric LLVs
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Source US Postal Service Fleet Planning and
Management - Presentation to GovEnergy 2007
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Previous 500-vehicle trial was mostly positive
Lesson Commercial availability of batteries at a
reasonable price is one of the top factors
blocking electric LLV deployment. Premise
Li-ion price-performance is improving at 7-8
annually and should accelerate with added battery
spending in ARRA.ARRA Opportunity Demonstrate
technical feasibility and cost effectiveness of
battery modularity using batteries from multiple
sources and to increase vehicle range as needed.
Demonstrate integration into electric powertrain
before issuing LLV replacement specification and
bid docs.
Source US Postal Service Fleet Planning and
Management - Presentation to GovEnergy 2007
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Snapshot of Electric LLV Possibilities

• Fuel operating cost -- close to parity in 2008
  and then lower cost per mile as batteries
  continue to improve. Based on battery
  depreciation cost plus electricity vs. gas cost
  per mile
• 100-mile per gallon (equivalent) economy or
  better in urban driving
• Battery module interchangeability and an
  architecture that does not rely on a sole-source
  battery supplier and allows additional modules to
  be added when greater range is required
• No compromise on LLV mission requirements
• 76 reduction in CO2 emissions

• Current LLV Fleet generates over 600K metric tons
  of CO2 per year. Based on 142K LLVs 5K mi/yr
  (1/10.4 mpg) 19.4 lbs CO2 per gallon gas
  burned (1 metric ton/2204.6 lbs)
• All electric LLV fleet would generate 144K
  metric tons of CO2 per year. Based on 142K
  eLLVs 5K mi/yr (337 Wh/mi) 1.33 lbs CO2
  per kWh 2007 U.S. average in electric utility
  sector (1 metric ton/2204.6 lbs).

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Fuel Cost Parity -- already within 10 in 2008!

• Fuel operating cost defined as

• For ICE vehicles gas cost per mile
• For EVs battery depreciation plus electricity
  cost per mile

• Current LLV fuel cost per mile 0.24

• Based on gas 2.50/gal and LLV fuel economy of
  10.4 mpg

• Electric fuel cost per mile in 2008 0.264

• 18650 Li-ion cells at volume price of 2.50 each
• Multiplier of 2.0 to convert cells into pack and
  margin of 30
• Vehicle fuel economy of 100 mpg (equiv) 337
  Wh/mi
• Overnight charging price of 0.055/kWh
• Lifetime energy passed through each cell is
  function of of charge cycles before replacement
  and energy stored per charge. In 2008, some
  Li-NMC cells at this price had 8.9 kWh lifetime
  energy before replacement (based on 1000 cycles
  to 80 and 1600 cycles to 50). This leads to a
  cell depreciation cost of 0.28/kWh ( 2.50 /
  8.9 kWh lifetime). Li-FePO4 cells have similar
  depreciation cost per kWh.
• But battery price performance improving 7-8 per
  year and likely will accelerate with 2B ARRA
  spending

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Projected Fuel Cost per LLV Mile
If Battery price performance improves at 7 per
year
Gas at 4.00/gal.
Gas at 2.50/gal.
Or if battery price performance improves to 10
per year
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100-mpg (equiv.) Electric LLV

• Require 337 Wh/mi or less to hit 100-mpg (equiv)
  target
• Actual vehicle energy economy depends on lots of
  factors including weight, frontal area, tires,
  powertrain component efficiency, coefficient of
  drag, regenerative braking or ultracapacitor bank
  efficiency, driving cycle, etc.
• Modeling results below suggest target is
  achievable for urban delivery. Based on Weight
  1450 kg, Frontal area 2.5 m2, Rolling resist.
  coeff. 0.025, Aero drag coeff. 0.6, Ancillary
  power w/o AC 0.4 kW, net Powertrain effic.
  excl. battery charging 90

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Partial (600-sec) UDDS Driving Cycle
Candidate vehicle in model used 408 Wh/mi
without energy capture Target is 337 Wh/mi or
less 367 Wh/mi with energy capture
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UDDS Driving Cycle
Candidate vehicle in model used 372 Wh/mi
without energy capture Target is 337 Wh/mi or
less 326 Wh/mi with energy capture
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50 -derated US06 Driving Cycle
Candidate vehicle in model used 313 Wh/mi
without energy capture Target is 337 Wh/mi or
less 295 Wh/mi with energy capture
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Avoiding Battery Pack Lock-in

• A fundamental leadership opportunity for USPS is
  to require electric LLV to be able to

• use battery modules from multiple vendors
• require architecture for additional battery
  modules to easily be added when further range is
  required

• Form factor and exact interfaces will emerge as
  automotive volumes increase (Example 12V lead
  acid batteries for starting cars)
• This approach will allow USPS to realize
  continuing cost savings as battery price
  performance continues to improve.
• Operating costs will be in proportion to vehicle
  efficiency. Capital costs will be in proportion
  to range.

over gas
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Discussion-Provoking Questions

• How did all this sound? Is there interest in
  developing, testing and validating key aspects of
  a next-generation all-electric LLV?
• Is the USPS already working with an OEM on an
  all-electric replacement LLV?
• Does the USPS have a preference for all-electric
  vs. hybrid? What are key deciding factors?
• Is there a preferred OEM to work with to develop
  an all-electric LLV?
• How does USPS reconcile preference for largest
  auto OEMs with custom requirements such as RHD?
  
• Is there a general preference to take a
  mass-market vehicle (such as a Sprinter van) and
  customize it or have a well-tailored customized
  vehicle special-built for USPS?
• Are there any preliminary specifications
  available for the replacement LLV?

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Thank You!
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Additional Slides
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