Combined approach using the electromagnetic precursory phenomena and critical phenomena for a short-term earthquake prediction

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Combined approach using the electromagnetic
precursory phenomena and critical phenomena for a
short-term earthquake prediction
Tokyo
We are here!
Nagoya
Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai
University Toshiyasu NAGAO
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Todays talk

• What is Seismo-Electromagnetics
• some examples (California and Japan)
• Greek VAN method
• Introduction of Natural Time analysis
• Introduction of LAI (Lithosphere-Atmosphere and
  Ionosphere) coupling

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What is Seismo-Electromagnetics

• Research for electromagnetic phenomena possibly
  associated with (impending) earthquakes.
• It has a long history, however the existence of
  the phenomena themselves still have a lot of
  arguments.
• Best-known example is the case of the M7.1 Loma
  Prieta (California) EQ in 1989 (Fraser-Smith et
  al., 1990)

However We know that -gt EM phenomena
preceded by EQs are so small !
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M7.1 Loma Prieta (California) EQ in 1989
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Method and Frequency range
Seismo-Electromagnetics in Japan
telluric current
3-comp. magnetic
ULF
Brown letters Signals emitted from the
lithosphere
Narrow band 3-comp. magnetic
ELF
Blue letters Ionosphere/troposphere
anomaly (radio wave transmission anomaly)
2-comp. magnetic for direction finding EM
pulse measurements in a borehole
VLF
Anomalous transmission of radio waves
LF
ULF to VHF
Vertical E-field measurements in a borehole
MF
HF
FM broadcast wave anomalous transmission
VHF
Natural noise observation
Micro wave observation
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Nagao et al., 2002 (J. Geodynamics)
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Seismo-Electromagnetic studies in Japan
Signals emitted from the lithosphere
DC telluric current (Tokai, Hokkaido, Tokyo,
Chiba Univs.) ULF 3-comp. magnetic (Tokai, Chiba,
ECU, Hokkaido, Chubu Univs.) ELF narrow band
3-comp. magnetic (Chubu, Naoya Tech. Univs.) VLF
on-land magnetic direction finding (Tokai
Univ.) VLF borehole electromagnetic pulses (Kyoto
Sangyo Univ.) Broad band (VLF-VHF)
electromagnetic field (Osaka Univ.) Micro wave
(JAXA, Chiba Univ.)
Ionosphere/troposphere anomaly
VLF-LF radio wave anomalous transmission (ECU,
Chubu Univ.) GPS-TEC anomaly (Chiba, Tokyo
Gakugei, ECU Univs.) VHF FM radio wave anomalous
transmission (Hokkaido, Tokyo Gakugei, Tokai
Chiba Univs., ECU, Okayama Univ. of
Science)
Atmospheric electric field (Tokyo Gakugei, Waseda
Univs.) Underground Electric field (Akita Pref.
Univ.)
Lab. experiments
Tokyo, Tokyo Metropolitan, Osaka, Tokai Univs.
JAXA)
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Izu 2000 events (volcanic eruption and intense
seismic activity)
3-comp. magnetometer array
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Izu 1998-2000
Activity started
Eigenvalue (?3, 0.1Hz) Izu Pen.3-comp. Mag array.
E-field Niijima (0.01Hz)
2000
1998
1999
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Telluric current record
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Collapsed station at Kozu Island
July 2002
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(No Transcript)
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VAN method

• Greek scientists, Varotsos, Alexopoulos, and
  Nomikos initiated in 1980s.
• Based on multi-dipole DC-electric field
  observation
• Anomaly (SES) appears before the impending
  sizable earthquake (EQ).
• They claimed that they predicted M5 Greek EQs.
  The criteria for successful prediction are lt a
  few weeks in time, lt0.7 units in magnitude (M,
  hereafter), and lt100 km in epicentral distance.
  The length of time window depends on the type of
  signals (a few days to months).

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Recognition of the VAN method

• Generally, not well recognized among the
  seismological community
• A lot of debates/counterarguments
• Recent EOS articles
• Geophys. Res. Lett. 23 (debates of VAN)
• VAN groups way of writing is not reader oriented
  (difficult to understand)

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On going forecast!
http//arxiv.org/abs/0904.2465
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Cornell University website http//arxiv.org/abs/0
904.2465
The same holds for a non-dichotomous signals on
March 28, 2009 at Keratea station located close
to Athens (Fig. 8) To approach the occurrence
time of the impending event, the procedure
developed in Ref 32 has been employed for the
seismicity within are N37.7- 38.8, E22.6-24.1.
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Natural Time Analysis

• P. A. Varotsos and his group
• Natural Time Analysis is effective to predict a
  critical point in the time-series of critical
  phenomena.
• Large earthquakes
• Varotsos et al., Phys. Rev. E,2002, 2003, 2006,
  2007
• Phase transition on 2D Ising spin systems
• Varotsos et al., Phys. Rev. E, 2003
• Heart attack
• Varotsos et al., Phys. Rev. E,2004, 2005

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Natural Time
(Varotsos, Is time continuous ?, submitted to
Phys. Rev. Lett., 2008)
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Self-organized Criticality
Plate motion
Is EQ SOC phenomenon ?
Critical phenomena -gt SOC o SOC -gt Critical
phenomena X
EQs
(Sand pile model)
Bak et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. (1987) Bak Tang
J. Geophys. Res. (1989)
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Critical point
Critical point (Long range correlation)
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One Case (Conventional Time)
Critical Point
Extramarital affair
Energy
Second affair
First Fight
Fight
Fight
Conventional Time
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Another Case (Conventional Time)
Critical Point
Extramarital affair
Energy
Second affair
First Fight
Fight
Fight
Conventional Time
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Similar Shape
Energy
Natural Time
0
1
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Power spectrum
Qxk
Seismic Moment
Natural frequency
?
Power spectrum at Critical Point ?
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Candidate of Critical Point
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Coincidence
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Time series of
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True Coincidence
Coincidence
Scale invariance
(Magnitude and Area)
True Coincidence
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2000 Izu Swarm EQs(Uyeda, Kamogawa Tanaka,
JGR, 2009)
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Time-series of power spectrum
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Time series of k1
Candidate of True Coincidence
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Tentative conclusion

• EM phenomena may reflect critical state of the
  crust (at least Greek group claims that SES is a
  critical phenomenon)
• EM phenomena are not statistical but
  deterministic ones
• Combination of multi-parameter monitoring is
  essentially important
• If EQs are critical phenomena, Natural Time
  analysis may connect seismicity and SES activity
  (EM phenomena)

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Future Plans

• Proceed RTL algorism research with Prof. Huang
  (Peking University)
• Proceed Natural Time analysis
• Proceed cooperation with Keilis-Borok group
• To solve fundamental problem of EM phenomena
  related to EQs
• EM signal generation and transmission
• To proceed LAI (lithosphere-Atmosphere and
  Ionosphere) coupling study
• -gt to merge mechanical process and EM
  phenomena

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Both Seismic activity and Ionosphere are really
near earth surface matter !
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Preseismic LAI coupling
Kamogawa (2006)
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References

• Fraser-Smith et al., Low-frequency magnetic field
  measurements near the epicenter of the Ms 7.1
  Loma Prieta earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17,
  1465-1468, 1990.
• Nagao et al., Electromagnetic anomalies
  associated with 1995 KOBE earthquake, J.
  Geodynamics, 33, 401-411, 2002.
• For Natural Time
• SARLIS et al., Investigation of seismicity after
  the initiation of a Seismic Electric Signal
  activity until the main shock, Proceedings of the
  Japan Academy, Series B,  Vol. 84 , No. 8,
  331-343, 2008.
• Varotsos, The Physics of Seismic Electric
  Signals, TerraPub, Tokyo, Japan, 338 pp., 2005.
• Uyeda et al., Analysis of electrical activity and
  seismicity in the natural time domain for the
  volcanic-seismic swarm activity in 2000 in the
  Izu Island region, Japan, JGR, 114, B02310,
  doi10.1029/2007JB005332, 2009.
• For LAI coupling
• Kamogawa, M., Preseismic Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Io
  nosphere Coupling, EOS, Vol. 87, Num. 40, 417,
  424, 2006.