Global Warming and Demographic Aging: its Effects on Globa

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Global Warming and Demographic Aging its Effects
on Global Prosperity

• Dr. Maria Sophia Aguirre
• Department of Business and Economics
• The Catholic University of America
• IV Congreso Internacional de la Familia
• Universidad de la Sabana
• Bogotá, Colombia
• April 25-26, 2008

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Global WarmingA Study of Air and Water Pollution

• Neo-Malthusian theory
• population growth destroys the environment.
• people threaten the balance of biodiversity and
  ecology of the earths resources.
• One way is through the pollution of air and
  water.
• Free-market proponents argue that a market-based
  approach will encourage the market to help the
  environment through technological innovation.
• People as Problem Solvers argue that current
  problems are the result of poor management from
  government, believe in win-win free market
  response.

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Country Country Total Emissions Total Emissions Annual Change () Emissions share of world total () Emissions share of world total () Population share Carbon Emissions per capita Carbon Emissions per capita
1990 2004 1990-2004 1990 2004 2004 1990 2004
USA, USA, 4,818 6,045.8 1.8 21.1 20.9 4.6 19.3 20.6
China China 2,399 5,007.1 7.8 10.6 17.3 20.2 2.1 3.8
Russia Russia 1,984 1,524.1 -1.9 8.8 5.3 2.2 13.4 10.6
Global Aggregates (development and region level) Global Aggregates (development and region level) Global Aggregates (development and region level) Global Aggregates (development and region level) Global Aggregates (development and region level) Global Aggregates (development and region level) Global Aggregates (development and region level) Global Aggregates (development and region level) Global Aggregates (development and region level) Global Aggregates (development and region level)
High-income OECD 10,055.4 10,055.4 12,137.5 1.5 44.3 41.9 14.3 12.0 13.2
Least 74.1 74.1 146.3 7.0 0.3 0.5 11.8 0.2 0.2
Sub-Saharan 454.8 454.8 663.1 3.3 2.0 2.3 11.1 1.0 1.0
Medium 5,944.4 5,944.4 10,215.2 5.1 26.2 35.2 65.1 1.8 2.5
World 22,702 22,702 28,983 2.0 100 100 100 4.3 4.5
Human development Index, 2008
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Regional Contributions to Carbon Emissions
100
D3- Least Developed Countries
80
D2-Developing Countries
60
India
40
China
Former Soviet Union
20
D1-Developed Countries
Japan
EU
0
USA
Cumulative Emissions 1751-2004
Flux in 2004
Flux Growth in 2004
Population in 2004
Recent Carbon Trends and the Global Carbon
Budget, Global Carbon Project. Nov. 2007.
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Global Warming and Efficiency

• Eradicating pollution is not the issue, it is
  making polluting efficient
• Advancement in technology through human integrity
  and innovation allow for environmental efficiency
• Such development allows for more environmental
  protection measures to be created without harming
  the market
• Innovation and technological advancements allow
  for pollution control, not population control
  policies under the neo-Malthusian theory

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The Population Problem

• The world population is increasing at a rapid
  rate, particularly within developing countries
• Many policy makers and theorists worry that soon
  there could be too many people for the amount of
  resources available
• Many international organizations and developing
  countries have implemented population control
  policies to try and slow this growth before it
  puts a burden on the worlds natural resources
• Many of these policies are based upon
  Neo-Malthusian theory
• Population control policies have jeopardized real
  long-term economic growth, placing a heavy burden
  on the economic welfare of these societies.

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Neo-Malthusian Theory

• Two main sub-categories
• The Limited Resource Perspective takes the
  classic Malthusian argument and applies it to all
  natural resources
• The Socio-Biological Perspective almost acting
  as a sub-set of the former, treats the
  environment as a limited resource and regards
  people as a threat to the biodiversity and
  ecological balance of that resource.

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The Population Control Argument

• First rapid growth in population means the
  spread of poverty and aggravates conditions such
  as as poor health, malnutrition, illiteracy, and
  unemployment (Bucharest, 1974)
• Second population threatens government stability
  in developing countries, and encourages
  confrontation between developed and developing
  countries (Memorandum 200)
• Third it pushes future generations to scarcity,
  and an unsustainable environment carrying
  capacity (Rio, 1992)
• Fourth it sees population growth to be
  symptomatic of the larger problem of women's
  oppressionthe more children a woman has, the
  less opportunity she has for her own
  self-actualization and development (Cairo, 1994
  and Beijing, 1995)

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Expenditure on Grant-Financed Development
Activities of the United Nations System by
Sector (Percentage of Total)
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Aging Population The Case of China

• No debate over if or when an aging population
  will manifest itself by 2015 the labor supply
  will begin to shrink and by 2035 China will have
  a reversed age pyramid.
• From 2000 to 2025, people above 65 will triple
  while youngsters under 15 will increase by only
  6.
• The dependency ratio (defined as the percentage
  of the population aged 65 over the percentage of
  the population aged 15-64) will increase from an
  average of 50 in 1995, to an average of 85-90
  by the year 2050.
• Today in China only 44.9 of the urban employees
  and 85.4 of the retirees covered.

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Chinas Population Distribution, 2007
Source World Factbook, 2008
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Chinas Population Distribution(year 2050)
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Colombias Population Distribution, 2007
Colombia. CIA World Factbook, 2008
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Speed of Population Aging Number of years for
of population aged 65 and over to rise from 7 to
14
Source US Census Bureau, 2000
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Aging Trap

• Social security system funding the family cannot
  support the elderly
• Competition between the younger and older people
• Early retirement
• To provide for the economic needs of the elderly,
  there is a reduction of funding allocated to
  training new generations
• The transmission of cultural, scientific,
  technical, artistic, moral, and religious goods
  is endangered "moroseness results. Add to
  this immigration.
• Saving rates are affected by a society's age
  structure, mirroring the change in an
  individual's saving rate over the life cycle.

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Conclusion

• Neo-Malthusian application to global warming is
  seriously flawed according to data on emissions
  and pollution rates.
• Policy reactions based in neo-Malthusian theory
  will be equally compromising and possibly
  damaging.
• Pollution is not a matter of preventing but
  regulating efficiently through the free-market.
• On Population, the Neo-Malthusian approach is
  also seriously flawed on many levels and policy
  actions based on such assumptions are inefficient
  and damage real sustainable development. They
  lead to the again population trap of a one child
  policy.

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Conclusion

• The misplaced focus on population size instead of
  real economic needs of the population have come
  at the sacrifice of human capital, particularly
  in developing nations.
• Millions of people lack access to safe water,
  sanitation, education, medical care and
  infrastructure to meet needs.
• Results in an inefficient use of resources.
• This is both inefficient and damaging to real
  long-term economic growth thus rendering this
  process fruitless.