Aspects of pandemic planning at UCLH

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Aspects of pandemic planning at UCLH

• Dr Emma Aarons
• Consultant Virologist
• (GP meeting 11/03/09)

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The Camden Flu Pandemic game

• Business continuity simulation-game to help
  players appreciate the impact of a possible
  influenza pandemic on their own businesses
• Teams of people play as local businesses
• garage, supermarket, care home, station
• Dice throws determine whether an individual
  becomes infected in a particular round (week)
• Chance cards model effects such as
• schools closure, public transport disruption,
  absenteeism due to fear

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The Camden Flu Pandemic game

• http//www.camdenpct.nhs.uk/PAGES/go.asp?PageID75
  0Path2Parent614.0644Instance782
• Official DH version coming soon!

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• Limited capacity at UCLH
• Communication of status of services at UCLH
• Assessment and referral of flu cases

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Assumptions 1

• Duration of epidemic 15 weeks
• Infection rate 50 in single wave
• Complication rate 25 of symptomatic
• Hospitalisation rate 4 of symptomatic
• Age groups affected equally

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Assumptions 2

• UCLH catchment population 198,000 people
• 50 Camden residents
• 35 Islington residents
• 10 Westminster residents

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Assumptions 3

• Requirement for ITU 25 of hospitalised

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Communication of service availability

• On UCLH internet website
• List of all services
• Status of each indicated by traffic lights
• Red not available
• Amber limited availability
• (Green available)
• Updated at least daily

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Surge management of flu admissions

• Up to a third of symptomatic patients will
  require assessment and treatment by a GP or
  suitably trained nurse
• Once the pandemic is established locally, there
  will be huge numbers of flu patients presenting
  for assessment

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Surge management of flu admissions

• Use of assessment proforma in AE
• To expedite assessment
• To serve as patients record
• To ensure consistent assessment and criteria for
  further patient evaluation/admission
• Use of SAME proforma in primary care
• To expedite assessment
• To serve as patients record AND referral
  document
• To ensure consistent assessment and criteria for
  patient referral to hospital

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Recently published guidance on pandemic planning
for GPs

• Work is under way developing objective admission
  criteria for adults with pandemic flu and
  complications

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Things you can do?

• Appreciate differences between seasonal, avian
  and pandemic influenza
• Play Flu Pandemic game
• Participate in PCT pandemic planning
• Consider participation in HPA flu surveillance
• Engage with UCLH pandemic planning via PCT and/or
  via this group

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More things you could do

• Take a look at the RCGP/BMA pandemic flu guidance
  for GPs
• http//www.rcgp.org.uk/PDF/GP_Guidance.pdf
• Invest in some pulse oximeters?