Technology Forecasting

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Technology Forecasting
The future is not what it used to be.
Valery Flying jet cars, paper clothes,
underwater cities, moon colonies, 20-hour work
week, wrist videophones, self-contained
artificial heart, orbiting manufacturing
facilities, AI brain simulator The future is
not even when it used to be.
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Technology Forecasting

• In short, the abstract quality of an innovation
  matters not at all. Build a better mousetrap,
  and the world may beat a path to your door
• if
• It doesnt build a better mouse, or
• tie up your gadget in environmental studies, or
• tie up your gadget in animal-cruelty
  regulations.
• Ref
  Rennie, SA, 1996

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Technology Forecasting
Forecast Prediction Speculation P
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Technology Forecasting
What will be needs to be could be should
be may be
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Technology Forecasting
Why? -- Assessment for a Go/ No Go decision --
Management of RD programs -- New opportunities /
threats -- Substitution of new for old -- Process
redesign
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Technology Forecasting
Traditional Methods -- Surveillance --
Subjective Assessment -- Exploratory --
Projection -- Normative
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Technology Forecasting
Surveillance -- Scanning -- Monitoring
-- Tracking
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Technology Forecasting
Subjective Assessment -- Jury of Executive
Opinion -- Sales Force Composite -- Formal
Surveys Market Research -- Focused Interviews
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Technology Forecasting
Exploratory -- Scenario Development -- Delphi

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Technology Forecasting
Projection -- Trend Analysis / Curve
Fitting -- Substitution
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Technology Forecasting
Projection Trend Analysis In many cases, rate
of progress is constant (e.g., 20 per year).
Mathematically, ln(Attribute) is linear in
Time. Example Avg. Cost of DRAM
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Technology Forecasting
Projection Curve Fitting A frequently used
form is the S-shaped curve. Mathematically, Y
L/1 a.exp(-bt) where Y current parameter
value, L parameter limit, and a and b are
empirical constants. Example S-curve of
transportation speed
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Technology Forecasting
Projection Substitution Fisher-Pry
substitution formula f/(1 f) a.exp(bt)
where f fraction of market takeover at time
t, and a and b are empirical constants.
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Technology Forecasting
Normative -- Systems Dynamics
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Technology Forecasting
What do we know? -- Successful high-tech
industrial projects rely more on internal
qualitative forecasting techniques -- Usage of
personal data sources improves accuracy -- Above
a certain minimal level, expertise and sales
forecast accuracy are unrelated -- Using more
methods and data sources improves accuracy
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Technology Forecasting
Emerging tools - empathic observation -
probing different markets with different
prototypes - voice of the creator
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Technology Forecasting

• Case Study Market opportunity forecasting for
  HDTV Technology
• HDTV sets
• Production equipment
• Semiconductors (memory chips, microprocessors,
  DSP chips)
• Display screens
• VCR
• Military applications

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Technology Forecasting

• Case Study Market opportunity forecasting for
  HDTV
• Conceptualize key market factors
• Formulate a model for market potential
• Collect data on key variables
• Analyze data and segment market
• Develop new product scenarios
• Estimate market potential and penetration
• Continually update models
• 
  Ref Robert J. Thomas

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Technology Forecasting

• Case Study Market opportunity forecasting for
  HDTV
• Conceptualize key market factors
• - Population base
• - Technology
• - Awareness
• - Availability
• - Intention to buy
• Ref Robert J. Thomas

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Technology Forecasting
Case Study Market opportunity forecasting for
HDTV 2. Formulate a model for market
potential Pott (Popt)(Tekt)(Awrt)(Avlt)(Buyt)

Ref Robert J. Thomas
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Technology Forecasting
Case Study Market opportunity forecasting for
HDTV 3. Collect data on key variables
Population (Pop) Technology (Tek)
Awareness (Awr) Availability (Avl)
Intention to buy (Buy) Ref Robert J.
Thomas
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Technology Forecasting

• Case Study Market opportunity forecasting for
  HDTV
• Conceptualize key market factors
• Formulate models of major factors
• Collect data on key variables
• Analyze data and segment market
• Develop new product scenarios
• Estimate market potential and penetration
• Continually update models
• 
  Ref Robert J. Thomas

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Technology Forecasting
Case Study Market opportunity forecasting for
HDTV Forecast of US Shipment
(millions of units)
1999 2000 Forecasting Entity American
Electronics Association 0.5 1.0 National
Telecom. Info. Adimin. 2.3 4.0 Electronics
Industries Association 9.5 10.2 Actual
Shipment 0.1 0.7
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Technology Forecasting
Case Study Market opportunity forecasting for
HDTV Assess forecasts by empirically developing
product segments in the home appliance industry
that can be related to HDTV Factors Market
Potential, Price Trend, Learning
Coefficient Coefficient of Innovation,
Coefficient of Imitation, Price Ref. -
Bayus, Mgmt. Sci. 1993
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Technology Forecasting
Case Study GPS Trimble Navigations rise and
fall and rise and fall and for the last 22
years If only GPS vendors could find the
elusive mass markets they seek From
automobiles to cellular phones. Ref.
Franson, Update, Feb. 1999