Title: Decision Making in Pathways Development
1Decision Making in Pathways Development
- Dr Andrew J Taylor
- Assistant Director Public Health Science, Hull
Teaching PCT
2Slides On Website
- http//www.hullpublichealth.org
3Decision Making in Pathways Development
- Objectives
- Describe an Economic view of Decision Making in
Health Care - Offer a potential approach
- Describe simple approach
- Pull together main recommendations
4Economists Perspective
- More Demands on resources than there are
resources available - A view not always accepted by participants in NHS
- Patients needs must come first!
- Which patients needs come first?
- Cardiac Pathway ?
- Cancer Pathway ?
5Economists Perspective2 key economic principles
- Opportunity Cost
- Investing resources in one way or on one group of
patients means that resources not available for
another
- The Margin
- About changes to the resource mix
- If budget increases how to spend new resources
- If budget decreases where to reduce resources
- If budget stays constant how to reconfigure for
improved service
6Marginal Analysis
- Aim to allocate resources to the point when no
further change will result in a health gain - Without explicit adherence to the two economic
principles, resources will be unlikely to be
allocated in the best possible configuration. - Opportunity Cost - The Margin
7Program Budgeting Marginal Analysis (PBMA)
- Approach used in UK Australia, New Zealand and
Canada - Hull is participant in National PBMA Pilot with
York Observatory - Diabetes - Similar principles to economic evaluation but
suggested to be more pragmatic and applicable to
various levels through organisation - Key is to ensure that opportunity cost and the
margin are used in decision making process
8PBMA Steps
- Determine aim and scope of decision process
- Define budget (map current activity and spending)
- Form marginal analysis advisory panel
(representative) - Determine locally relevant decision criteria
- input from decision makers, board, public, etc
- Advisory Panel identify
- Areas for service growth
- Areas for savings through using less resources
for same service level - Areas for resource release through scaling back /
stopping services - Advisory Panel make recommendations in terms of
- Funding growth areas from new resources
- Moving resources from 5b to 5a
- Trade off decisions to move resources from 5c to
5a if considered to be an improvement - Validity checks with stakeholders
9Determine Scope
- Aims need to be clearly stated
- Might be
- To determine optimum investment across all
programs within Trust (PCT or Provider) - Or
- To identify priorities for new technologies
- Both important for Pathways Development
- Map current activity and spending
- Starting point for decisions
10Advisory Panel (Pathways Group)
- Representative group but not too large
- Group dependent on question under consideration
and scope of exercise - Necessary to restate economic principles
11Decision Making Criteria
- Need to clearly state dependent criteria and make
explicit (some examples) - Cost-effectiveness/Clinical efficacy
- Deprivation/Equity
- Innovation
- Ethics
- Political Imperatives
- May be put into a decision making pro-forma to
ensure fair consideration and avoid the loudest
voice dominating - Or use Qualitative (Delphi?) methods
12Identify options for change
- Stage 5 in the PBMA process
- Prioritised list of service growth options
- Examine current expenditure to improve
operational efficiency - Identify options for service reductions or
scaling back
13Rating Options for Change
- Part 6 in the PBMA process
- Each planning group member to explicitly rate
each option from stage 5 according to the
pre-defined criteria - All decision matrix forms summed and total score
averaged to give a score per option51121
14Ranking and Decisions
- If, for example service growth items A, B and C
get scores of 900, 800 and 700 and service
reduction options X, Y and Z get average scores
of 850, 750 and 650 respectively - Ranking of options is then A X B Y C Z
- Service A should be financed from lowest ranked
service reduction (Z) still getting funding - Continue comparing growth and service reduction
until no further gains can be had by switching
resources between options
15Why and What Challenges
- Notion of freeing resources through improving
operational efficiency commonplace in health
organisations - But Still
- Challenge to obtain resource releases through
service reductions / disinvestments - Need good information
16Information and PBMA
- Economic Evaluations
- Systematic Overviews
- Outcome studies
- Health technology assessments
- Quality reports
- DoH or other guidelines
- Local utilisation data
- Informal input
- Expert opinion
- Business cases
- Etc as relevant
17Other Challenges
- Data Requirements - Cost of Information
- Need to make decisions when there is little
evidence (Bounded rationality) - Identifying areas for resource release (sacred
cows and protection of interests) - Might be better approached by informal
consultation with key personnel or by anonymous
questionnaire - How to incorporate patient views without
distorting a rational or dispassionate view
18Barriers and Facilitators
- Barriers
- Lack of trust between facilitators
- Physicians not on board
- Advisory panel lacking in health economics and/or
allocation experience - Politics preventing program evolution
- Discontinuity of personnel
- Too many admin demands leaving priority setting
as a low priority activity
- Facilitators
- Senior level managerial/clinical champions
- Strong leadership
- Culture to learn and change
- Integrated budgets
- Resources earmarked for PBMA process itself
- Built in incentives for appropriate and efficient
spending
19Advantages of PBMA
- Explicit recognition of opportunity cost and the
margin - Transparent process
- Stakeholder consultation
- Enables public input
- Can be coupled with an ethical framework to
examine the fairness of the process - Improvement on common unstructured decision
processes
20Decision Tree Approach
Square Decision Node Circle Chance Node with
probability
21Decision Trees1 Year Timescale in this case for
simplicity
Die
A
Live
Decision
Die
B
Live
22Decision Trees ProbabilitiesMust Sum to 1
Die
0.05
A
Live
0.95
Decision
Die
0.1
B
Live
0.9
23Decision Trees OutcomesMeasured using HUI SF36
Euroqol etc
Die
0
0.05
A
Live
0.85
0.95
Decision
Die
0
0.1
B
Live
0.80
0.9
24Decision Trees CostImportant in every Pathway
Die
0
0.05
A
Live
0.85
0.95
1000
Decision
Die
0
0.1
100
B
Live
0.80
0.9
25Decision Trees OutcomesMeasured using HUI SF36
Euroqol etc
Die
0
0.05
Outcome 0.81
A
Live
0.85
0.95
1000
new treatment
Decision
Die
0
Existing treatment
0.1
100
B
Live
0.80
Outcome 0.72
0.9
26Decision Trees OutcomesMeasured using HUI SF36
Euroqol etc
Die
0
0.05
Outcome 0.81
A
Live
0.85
0.95
1000
Expensive Treatment
Decision
Cheap Treatment
Die
0
0.1
100
B
Live
0.80
Outcome 0.72
0.9
27Decision Trees OutcomesMeasured using HUI SF36
Euroqol etc
Die
0
0.05
Outcome 0.81
A
Live
0.85
0.95
1000
Expensive Treatment
1 Patient Or 1000 ?
Decision
Die
0
Cheap Treatment
0.1
100
B
Live
0.80
Outcome 0.72
0.9
28What Next??
- Difference in Health Related Quality of Life
Outcome 0.09 on scale (between 0 death and 1 full
health - Cost difference 900
- Cost per QALY ?
- 900 for 0.09 improvement in Quality of life
- 9,999 cost per QALY
- ????? NIHCE Boundary 30,000 per QALY
- 9999.9999999
29What Next?? Whats important?
- PBMA - Allows consideration and input of
pathway for all members of group avoid dominance
by any group - Finite Resources Probably shrinking in real
terms due to increases in costs - Evidence Based From Studies and Measured Local
Outcomes - Costed Essential, but not always considered but
relatively easy? - Gold Standard, Silver Standard or Bronze ? -
Based on Maximisation of benefit to patients
30What Next?? Whats important?
- Cost of Information Not always possible to meet
all the important points but should attempt to
find ways where we can - Innovation and Change? Can it be accommodated
in a tariff based system? - Others?
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