July KCM

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Keeping Current Matters
July 2013
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KCM Divided into Three Sections
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(No Transcript)
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Pending Home Sales
NAR 6/2013
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Pending Home Sales
January 2012 December 2012
January 2011 December 2011
NAR 6/2013
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Home Sales in thousands
Projected
Actual
NAR 6/2013
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Year-Over-Year Sales by Price Point
Median Region 0-100K 100-250K 250-500K 500-750K 750K-1M 1M
269,600 Northeast -2.7 3.8 17.6 23.9 36.3 24.8
159,800 Midwest 1.5 19.7 35.7 36.2 53.8 48
183,300 South -6.3 23.2 36.5 34.2 40.6 24.9
276,400 West -47 .5 23.6 38.1 63.9 49.8
208,000 U.S. -9.3 14.3 28.2 32.8 49.8 36.9
NORTHEAST
MIDWEST
WEST
SOUTH
NAR 6/2013
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Median Days on Market by Type
NAR, RCI Survey 6/2013
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Be Able to Address the Issue of a Possible
Bubble in Housing
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Price Changes as per Case Shiller
Source Case Shiller
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Are Properties Overvalued?
Inventories of existing homes are as low as they
were in 2000. New-home inventories have barely
budged from a 50-year low. As a consequence,
there are only 5 months of inventory for existing
homes and 4 months for new homes, compared with 6
months when market conditions are
normal Moreover, housing is at least fairly
valued, if not undervalued. The boom and bust in
housing left house price gains far behind income
and rent gains.

• Celia Chen, senior director of the
• Moody's Analytics research staff

Source Moodys Economy
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Gains as measured between the first quarters of
2004 and 2013
Source Moodys Economy
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http//www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/
06/us-house-prices
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Where are mortgage rates headed?
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Mortgage Rate Projections
Analyst Projected Rate 3Q 2014
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 4.6
Fannie Mae 4.6
National Assoc of Realtors 4.8
Freddie Mac 4.6
7/2013
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30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History
1/2012 7/2013
Federal Reserve 7/2013
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The Cost of Waiting a Year
Date Price Interest Rate PI
Last Year 200,000 3.5 898.09
This Year 220,000 4.5 1,114.71
Difference in Payment - 216.62
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Over 12 Months - 2,599.44
Over 30 Year Mortgage - 77,983.20
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Recent Rate Movement
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
2013
Freddie Mac 4/2013
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• I dont think the Fed ultimately would be
  troubled with a 6.5 mortgage rate.
• Doug Duncan, chief economist
• for Fannie Mae

Source Inman News
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"As the economy continues to improve, we expect
to see continued upward movement in long-term
interest rates At todays house prices and
income levels, mortgage rates would have to be
nearly 7 percent before the U.S. median priced
home would be unaffordable to a family making
the median income in most parts of the
country.

• Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac VP
• and chief economist.

Source Freddie Mac
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Mortgage Amount
Rate 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
6.00 599.55 1,199.10 1,798.65 2,398.20 2,997.75
5.75 583.57 1,167.15 1,750.72 2,334.29 2,917.86
5.50 567.79 1,135.58 1,703.37 2,271.16 2,838.95
5.25 552.20 1,104.41 1,656.61 2,208.81 2,761.02
5.00 536.82 1,073.64 1,610.46 2,147.29 2,684.11
4.75 521.65 1,043.29 1,564.94 2,086.59 2,608.24
4.50 506.69 1,013.37 1,520.06 2,026.74 2,533.43
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Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
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18
NAR 6/2013
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Breakdown of Todays Purchasers
Source Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance
HousingPulse Tracking Survey 6/2013
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Agents Who Specialize

• in a small geographic area compared to agents who
  list homes in a large area
• were 4 more likely to sell the home
• sell homes for 1.21 more
• sell homes above the median price for 1.71 more
• sell the home in 5.5 fewer days
•  

                                                  
            
Source WSJ 6/2013
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(No Transcript)
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Return on Investment
January 2000 July 2013
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
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Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months Normal Market Inventory
NAR 6/2013
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SP Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
SP Case Shiller 6/2013
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SP Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
SP Case Shiller 6/2013
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SP Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Atlanta 20.8
Boston 8.1
Charlotte 7.3
Chicago 9.3
Cleveland 4.8
Dallas 7.4
Denver 9.9
Detroit 19.8
Las Vegas 22.3
Los Angeles 18.8
Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Miami 13.0
Minneapolis 14.8
New York 3.2
Phoenix 21.5
Portland 12.9
San Diego 14.7
San Francisco 23.9
Seattle 11.4
Tampa 11.3
Washington 7.2
SP Case Shiller 5/2013
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(No Transcript)
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Opening Doors with POWERFUL MARKETING
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HOME MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES (30 YEAR FIXED)
Freddie Mac Rates
KCM
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Mortgage Amount
Rate 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
6.00 599.55 1,199.10 1,798.65 2,398.20 2,997.75
5.75 583.57 1,167.15 1,750.72 2,334.29 2,917.86
5.50 567.79 1,135.58 1,703.37 2,271.16 2,838.95
5.25 552.20 1,104.41 1,656.61 2,208.81 2,761.02
5.00 536.82 1,073.64 1,610.46 2,147.29 2,684.11
4.75 521.65 1,043.29 1,564.94 2,086.59 2,608.24
4.50 506.69 1,013.37 1,520.06 2,026.74 2,533.43
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z
Year-Over-Year change from NAR June 2013
Single Family Residential
UP 15.8
UP 12.7
Condominiums Co-ops
UP 11.8
UP 13.7
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Year-Over-Year Sales Increases by Price Point
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Current Price Change
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4 REASONS to USE an AGENT who SPECIALIZES in
YOUR AREA
HOMES SEE A QUICKER TIME TO SALE
HOMES SELL FOR 1.21 OVER MEDIAN PRICE
LUXURY HOMES AVERAGE 1.71 HIGHER SALE PRICE
HOMES ARE MORE LIKELY TO SELL
Source WSJ 6/2013
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http//terribuseman.wordpress.com/2013/06/13/are-w
e-approaching-another-housing-bubble/
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