Ethnic change in the populations of the developed world. European Population Conference, Barcelona T

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Ethnic change in the populations of the developed
world. European Population Conference,
BarcelonaThursday 10 July 2.30

• D.A. Coleman and Sylvie Dubuc
• with the assistance of M.D. Smith.
• Department of Social Policy and Social Work,
  University of Oxford
• http//www.spsw.ox.ac.uk/oxpop

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Projecting foreign origin populations aims,
concepts and problems

• Major concerns of projection decline and ageing,
  more recently human capital.
• Differential fertility and migration now also
  transforming population composition.
• Beginnings of a new demographic transition? First
  demographic transition out of phase in different
  populations
• Implications for change in identity, culture,
  religion and politics, provision of services.
• Problems of definition, data and projection.

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Should projections assume rapid absorption of
immigrant populations, or persistence of
demographic and other distinctiveness?

• foreign origin or background projections
  assume that third generation becomes
  statistically invisible.
• Ethnic and racial definitions imply potential
  permanence.
• But mixed origin populations may eventually
  predominate.

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Netherlands 2005 2050. Percent of population of
foreign origin with and without migration, to
show effect of two-generation rule.
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Projections of population by origin a summary of
sources.
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Norway 2005 2050. Projection of population of
foreign origin, in two major categories (Percent
of total population).
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United States 1999 2100, projection by race and
Hispanic origin.
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Comparison of results of some European and US
foreign-origin projections.
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Problems in projecting UK ethnic minority
populations

• Base population available from (1971), 1991 and
  2001 censuses, Labour Force Survey etc.
• But no vital registration by ethnic origin
• Ethnic categories unstable.
• Different (indirect) methods of estimating
  fertility give different answers.
• No life tables available yet.
• Migration data weak, no data by ethnic origin.

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Completed Family Size by year of Birth and Ethnic
Origin GHS women born 1929 1984. N.B. latest
cohort incomplete.
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The Own-Child Method of reconstructing
birth-rates in past and current calendar years
Matching and allocation process.
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TFR, 1965-2001 Comparing UK LFS own-child
estimates of TFR with TFR from ONS registration
data (total population).
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TFR trends of UK ethnic minority populations 1965
2006data from Labour Force Survey by own-child
method, 7-year moving averages. NB estimates
before 1980 based on small numbers.
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UK Pakistani TFR trends 1987 2006 unsmoothed,
with confidence intervals to show range of error
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Transition of UK Indian total fertility,1965
2006, annual estimates and 7-year moving average.
Source Labour Force Surveys, own-child method
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Projection of fertility UK Indian total
fertility 1965 2006 and predicted to 2026
(asymptote 1.53)
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UK Chinese TFR 1965 2006 asymptote 1.29
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Convergence in fertility? some persistent
differentials in US fertility. Source US Bureau
of the Census.
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TFR comparisons, UK ethnic groups, various sources
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Mortality

• Mortality statistics ASMRs difficult to compute
  small numbers, under-20s deficient.
• Chinese probably have lowest death rates.
• IMR mostly higher.
• For initial projections, England and Wales life
  tables used. projected to 2051 according to GAD
  assumptions.
• Large and Ghosh (2006), and Rees (2008) used
  differential SMRs derived from geographical areas.

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Estimated life table for immigrants born in the
West Indies, 2001 (qx)
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Estimating migration by ethnic origin, and the
diversity of future trends.

• UK migration data based on small sample, very
  broad categories only by citizenship, birthplace,
  country of origin. Ethnic origin inferred
  indirectly.
• Recent trends and policy suggested further
  increase except asylum these and official
  projections assume current level (unlikely).
• Eastern European flow will fall with A8 growth
  Labour migration will fall with recession return
  migration to India persistence of marriage
  migration emigration drivers in Africa will
  continue.

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UK population projections 2006-81, 2006-based,
GAD Principal Projection and variant migration
assumptions.
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Spouse migration to the UK 1973 - 2006 (thousands)
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Labour migration by work permit, UK 1973- 2006
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Some UK projections

• Choices to constrain or not to constrain?
  separate components or interactive? Migration
  numbers or rates?
• Various other approaches Large and Ghosh (2006)
  Rees (2008) and Bains (2006).
• Diversity in fertility and migration
• Mortality assumed to be England and Wales average
• Mixed populations begin to predominate.

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Projection of UK populations 2001-2051, combined
into three major groups. Assumptions
near-convergent fertility, constant migration,
mortality as in GAD 2004-based PP.
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Projection of UK ethnic minority populations
2001-51, grouped into non-white and white
non-British, to show the importance of migration.
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UK population projection 2051 by age, sex and
foreign / British ancestry. Assumptions for
total population as GAD Principal Projection 2006
(net migration 190K TFR 1.85)
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Projection of UK Black populations and Mixed
(without intergenerational transfers) 2001-2051
(1000s).
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Projection of selected UK Asian populations and
Other, 2001-2051 (1000s).
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(No Transcript)
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Births of mixed origin as proportion of all
births to mothers of different ethnic groups, UK,
1992-2001
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Projection of Mixed populations, and Caribbean,
with and without inter-generational
contributions, UK 2001 2056 (thousands).
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Probabilistic projection 2001-2100 Mixed
populations as a proportion of the total UK
population
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Conclusions

• Projections of population by ethnic origin in UK
  are possible but with difficulty.
• Must be regarded as indicators of implications of
  assumptions, not prophesies.
• Most sensitive and unpredictable variable is
  migration, not fertility or mortality.
• Migration policy must not be ignored.
• Substantial growth, and re-alignment of relative
  size, of some groups is very likely.
• Mixed groups gaining in importance multiple
  origins will eventually make ethnic categories
  less meaningful.
• Next steps must include migration scenarios.

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Net migration by citizenship 1967 2005
(thousands)
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Logistic curve fitted to UK Chinese TFR data 1965
2006. Asymptotic TFR 1.285 95 confidence
intervals 1.084 and 1.487
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(No Transcript)
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Projections of South Asian populations, 2001-51
(1000s).
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(No Transcript)
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Examples of calculation of asfrs from own-child
method.
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Comparisons of OXPOP projection with GAD
2004-based PP.
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(No Transcript)
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Foreign-born Black-African inflow, 1986-2002 by
sex and age upon arrival
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Estimated Ethnic Composition of Births in England
and Wales, 1993-2002 (n.b. scale)
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Probabilistic projection of the UK white
population 2001-2100