Title: OConnor and Sabato, Chapter 10: Public Opinion and the News Media
1OConnor and Sabato, Chapter 10 Public Opinion
and the News Media
- Presentation 10.2 How we Form and Measure Public
Opinion
2Key Topics
- How we form political opinions
- How we measure public opinion
3How We form Political Opinions
- Ideologues think predominately in terms of a
particular ideology - Most Americans are not ideologues
- Americans are more interested in what works
(pragmatism) - Three important filters (1) self-interest (2)
political knowledge and (3) cues from leaders or
opinion makers
41a. Personal Benefits
- Americans as a self-interested people
- People vote with their pocketbooks
- The problem of self-interested political behavior
- Favor tax cuts
- Violently oppose cuts in social services
Americans often have great difficulty forming
coherent opinions on issues that dont
personally affect them, such as foreign policy.
Americans often know little about the world
outside the U.S., which leads to great volatility
in public opinion on foreign policy issues.
51b. Political Knowledge
- Political participation and political knowledge
are positively correlated - The higher the education, the greater the
participation - Americans enjoy a relatively high literacy rate
and have greater access to higher education
Highly educated people are more likely to feel a
sense of political efficacy, and to view their
participation as meaningful.
61bi. Americans Selective Intelligence
- Americans anti-history bias
- Most U.S. high schools seniors have a poor grasp
of history - 52 of Americans were not aware that the Soviet
Union was an ally during WWII - 63 didnt know that Nixon opened diplomatic
relations with China
What explains Americans widespread lack of
interest in history?
71bii. Two Views of Americans
- Walter Lippmann Citizens cannot know everything
they need to know, but they can contribute to the
general direction the nation should take - V.O. Key Voters are not fools
- General knowledge is enough
Voters are best equipped to make decisions in
general elections, where there are usually large
contrasts between candidates. Primary
elections often put voters in a difficult
position because there are few meaningful differen
ces among candidates in primary elections.
82. How We Measure Public Opinion
- Political actors rely on a variety of methods to
gauge public opinion - Election results, the number of telephone calls,
faxes, or email messages, letters to the editor
in national hometown newspapers, etc. - The most commonly used measure are public opinion
polls
Polls are interviews or surveys with a sample of
citizens that are used to estimate the public
opinion of a larger population.
92a. Creating a Public Opinion PollStep 1
Creating a Survey Instrument
- How questions are framed may predetermine
respondents answers - Example the abortion issue
- Do you favor giving women the right to control
their reproductive destinies? - Do you favor the killing of innocent unborn
children?
Sometimes, pollsters deliberately frame
questions in such a way as to bias the outcome
of their poll in order to influence public
opinion. Such tactics are called push polling.
102ai. Creating a Public Opinion PollStep 2
Selecting the Sample
- Pollsters must determine the universe to be
measured (city, state, nation?) - The importance of random sampling
- gives each potential voter or respondent the same
chance of being selected - The N factor pollsters want a large enough
number to insure representativeness, but not too
large
Most national surveys use samples of between
1,000-1,500, which yields a margin of error of
between 2-5.
112aii. Step Two cont.Stratified Sampling
- Using census data and demographics to insure that
important population characteristics are included
in the proper proportion in the survey - The National Election Study (NES) employ
stratified sampling - Attempt to prevent volunteer interviews
Most national surveys are not stratified samples,
but rather rely on random telephone surveys.
122aiii. Creating a Public Opinion PollStep Three
Contacting Respondents
- The most frequently used mechanism for polling
are telephone polls - Random-digit dialing surveys connect pollsters to
potential respondents - Some academic pollsters use individual, in-person
interviews
How does personal interaction affect the opinions
of the respondent?
How does the widespread use of caller ID affect
the validity of telephone polling?
132b. Political PollsPush Polling
- Push polling as a way for candidates to win votes
- Example Would you be more likely to vote for
candidate X if you knew that the candidate had
been arrested for a DUI? - Many people think push polling is unethical
142bi. Political PollsTracking Polls
- Polls taken on a daily basis that enable media
and campaigns to chart its daily rise or fall - Tracking polls have significant reliability
problems, and contribute to horse race media
coverage - Whos ahead? Whos behind? Whos gaining ground?
Losing ground?
What do those questions contribute in the third
bullet contribute to voters understanding of who
they should vote for?
152bii. Political PollsExit Polls
- Collected on Election Day from selected polling
sites - Every 10th voter is sampled as they leave the
voting booth - The results help television networks predict the
outcome of key races
Exit polls and early victory declarations by the
networks have often been decried as a source of
low voter turnout in western states
like California, Oregon, and Washington.
162c. Shortcomings of Polling
- The decision in 1990 to consolidate polling
operations under the Voter News Service (VNS) - Cost-cutting created great potential for problems
- Rampant problems in the 2000 and 2002 elections
led to disbandment of VNS
172ci. Shortcomings cont.
- All polls depend on securing a representative
sample of the population to be surveyed - The problem of under representation of certain
groups (the poor, homeless, people who dont own
home telephones, etc.)
182cii. Shortcomings cont.Sampling Errors
- All polls have errors
- The margin of error is a measurement of the
difference between the actual universe and the
sample - At around 1,500 respondents, the margin of error
of a national sample is about 97
Within the margin of error means that a poll is
too close to call.
192ciii. Shortcomings cont.Sources of Polling
Inaccuracies
- Offering respondents an inadequate range of
response (like/dislike) - Problem of respondent ignorance (Do you
advocate eliminating the Electoral College?) - Inability of polls to measure the depth of
felling on issues
202civ. Shortcomings cont.
- Polls cannot gauge the willingness of individuals
to march, protest, or even die for a cause - Are there political issues in which you
passionately believe?
Abortion rights activists clash with abortion
opponents. Picture courtesy www.cjonline.com.