WWW Future Considerations

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WWW Future Considerations
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March 2002 Predictions

• E-commerce growth will continue to expand
  independent of the tech recovery, but the tech
  recovery will help to propel even more
  e-commerce,"
• consumers and businesses are continuing to
  increase their purchases online
• consumers boosted their online purchases by 12
  percent in 2001, and the average corporation
  bought 9.5 percent of materials on the Web in the
  fourth quarter of 2001, up from 7.1 percent in
  the third quarter.
• Forrester analyst Bruce Temkin

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2002

• Tech sector, propelled by a robust U.S. economic
  recovery, will turn around faster than previous
  projections indicated. In addition, e-commerce is
  expected to remain strong.

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Future Considerations

• Push vs. Pull
• WWW Business Model
• Cookie Files
• Device
• Access
• A Truly Global Marketplace
• Changing Nature of Competition

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Push vs Pull

• Push Model Traditional media
• mutually beneficial
• media - revenue
• marketers - access to customers through media
• consumers - information and entertainment
• Demand Pull WWW
• unique problem- consumer control
• Corporate Marketers Content Providers
• CP rely on CM for advertisements
• Same as traditional media model

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WWW Push Model

• Exposure quality of content WWW marketing
• greater exposure greater from marketers
• 2 methods to market content
• current WWW marketing techniques
• pushing content to the browser
• Push ensures that the channels audience is
  exposed to their content
• Email- for developed long term relationships
• Alternative Sponsorship Options

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Push Players

• Very competitive in the short term
• Include a shakeout, steady state gt long term
• Each player a number of channels
• Content providers will have to decide who to
  partner with
• The cost of competing
• Content Providers may evolve into Channel
  Providers

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Long Term Scenario

• A mix of push and pull
• Browsers
• Corporate Intranets
• Employees Desktop

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Access and Devise

• Wireless communications
• cell phones
• pagers
• personal platforms
• Convergence of traditional products
• Web TV
• cell
• pager
• computer (TV?)
• smart cars and other appliances
• smart power and phone service
• New business models will evolve out of this wired
  environment
• on the go, easy to use, affordable

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WWW Business Model

• Effective Business Models are still in
  development
• Subscription model has been hard to implement
• Content Providers may partner with Marketers
• Content/Channel/Marketers

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Cookie Files

• Vital to the development of WWW as a robust
  marketing medium
• Allow marketers to interpret and store data on
  individual transactions, on the consumers browser
• a small file stored on an individuals computer
  allowing the site to identify the browser as
  unique.

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A Truly Global Marketplace?

• Global Content Regulation
• Export Encryption Issues
• Trademark issues and Domain Names
• Intellectual Property Laws
• Tax Laws
• Technology
• Bandwidth

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Changing Nature of Competition

• Global competition
• Evolves very quickly
• Speed of the Internet reduce cycle times
• Increased quality and quantity of information
  available to consumer
• increased efficiency
• hyper competitive environment

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Predictions for Year 2000

• Provided by The Industry Standard

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What's the biggest Internet Economy trend of
2000?

• The next decade will see, I hope, the arrival of
  data (such as catalogs, weather, stock prices)
  that will be processable and combinable by
  machine. It'll be the rebirth of knowledge
  representation, where human meets machine. At
  last it will be a chance for a search engine to
  figure out the real, logical answer to a question
  instead of drowning you in wild guesses. - Tim
  Berners-Lee
• The most significant change will take place when
  people can conveniently use a palmtop computer to
  search for products online, compare prices and
  negotiate optional features while walking around
  normal retail establishments. - Roy T. Fielding
• If 1999 was the year of the dot-com, 2000 will be
  the year of the dot- community. Grassroots sites
  based on shared values and common interests will
  steal market share from the big portals. - Andrew
  Shapiro

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• Dot-coms and e-businesses will be valued on the
  number of repeat customers, the lifetime value of
  those customers and the retention rate of those
  customers. Internet advertising revenues will be
  based on customer acquisition bounties and
  transaction fees, not eyeballs or click-throughs.
  - Patricia Seybold
• True location independence for people. Wireless
  connections will allow for physical products
  be they packages or pizzas to be tied to you
  and your moving coordinates. - Tara Lemmey
• Weaving the right interconnections between the
  Internet Economy and the plain old economy will
  become increasingly crucial. Success, in many
  arenas, will depend upon finding the right mixes
  of networks and software, brick-and-mortar
  facilities, and transportation. - William
  Mitchell
• Expect e-mail from the younger and older members
  of your extended family. - Amy S. Bruckman

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What will be the top three qualities of
successful Internet companies next year?

• 1) Enable employees to deal with customers
  directly, outside of any scripted control (2)
  begin opening up at least parts of their
  intranets to public view and participation (3)
  employ personalization technology to better
  understand and communicate with site visitors. -
  Christopher Locke
• (1) Providing compelling online experiences for
  their customers (2) being responsive, and then
  some, to customer service (3) getting that it's
  the marketing (satisfying customer needs at a
  profit) that makes you a success, not the
  technology. - Donna Hoffman
• 1) Robustness (rather than speed) (2) rigorous
  affiliation with the customer (rather than
  e-merchandising) (3) laser focus (rather than
  department-store breadth). - Philip Evans

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What Internet technology do you hope will be
invented this year?

• I want to be able to think text onto a screen. -
  Eric S. Raymond
• A waterproof, lightweight laptop computer with
  wireless connectivity that I can take to the
  beach without worrying about getting sand in the
  keyboard or water in the circuits. - Roy T.
  Fielding
• Streaming taste. - Larry Downes
• The proliferation of artificial intelligence-
  based personal agents that will free me from
  having to "surf" the Web. - Don Tapscott
• Better tools for creating, manipulating and
  deploying metadata. - Hal Varian

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What won't happen in the Internet Economy in
2000?

• The bubble won't burst. - Doc Searls
• Appliances will not collapse the PC market. Human
  beings like having their own computing power,
  their own disk space, their own territory. - Eric
  S. Raymond
• Though many more people will have access to the
  Net, the digital divide won't be closed, because
  it has more to do with socioeconomic and
  educational inequality than simply whether one
  has access to the network. - Andrew Shapiro
• Profit won't happen for anything
  business-to-consumer that isn't pure
  entertainment. - Adam Beberg
• Success within the same markets as 1999. Anyone
  seeking to repeat the successes of this past year
  should be looking at new markets and unforeseen
  opportunities. - Roy T. Fielding

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What will be the next big idea for
business-to-business e-commerce?

• Accounting-to-accounting relationships. - Doc
  Searls
• Cross-company "undernets." - Christopher Locke
• Standardized product descriptions using XML. -
  Hal Varian
• An industry wide data dictionary for MRO (the
  thousands of minor and irregular purchases that
  amount to a half-trillion dollars in industrial
  procurement). - Philip Evans

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What will the customer of 2000 want?

• Respect. Demand is in charge now, not supply.
  People on the demand side are not "eyeballs" any
  more. And they'll ignore you if you treat them
  like body parts. - Doc Searls
• An integrated customer experience Browse and
  comparison-shop online, buy in the physical
  store browse and purchase online, return
  mistakes at the physical store browse the
  physical store, including the Web from the store,
  then buy it online at the store kiosk and pick it
  up at the store. All the various combinations of
  the above. - Donna Hoffman
• The four "p"s of marketing are dead. Rather than
  products, customers value experiences. Rather
  than place, they will create relationships in the
  marketspace or the clicks-and-bricks interface
  the "marketface." Prices can no longer be defined
  by sellers with the new price-discovery
  mechanisms. And promotion is being replaced by
  the forging of interactive relationships. - Don
  Tapscott

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What threats do clicks-and-mortar businesses face
that they don't know about yet?

• The benchmarking that goes on online is ruthless.
  You don't have to be the best in your
  neighborhood you have to be best in the world. -
  Seth Godin
• They will lose their key people even faster in
  2000.-Larry Downes
• Because real-world and Internet marketing
  techniques differ radically, these companies will
  run into the problem of sending mixed messages
  one style of communications via broadcast media,
  and another via the Web. Increasingly, these
  markets overlap, and the overlapping elements of
  both will become either confused or angry. -
  Christopher Locke
• The threats posed by unforeseen "business webs,"
  enabled by changes in the regulatory regimes. For
  instance, if regulations prohibiting
  manufacturers from selling cars directly to
  consumers in the United States are repealed,
  what's to stop a first-tier supplier from
  manufacturing an exclusive CarPoint or CarsDirect
  vehicle that consumers order, configure and buy
  on the Web, and take to a business partner like
  Midas (MDS) for service and maintenance? - Don
  Tapscott

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What e-commerce business models will take hold in
2000?

• Net customers will no longer be satisfied with
  two-day or next-day delivery. They'll frequent
  outlets that can deliver an order placed in the
  morning that afternoon. - Patricia Seybold
• Pay-for-performance revenue models will be huge.
  - Donna Hoffman
• I think that we'll see a growing market for
  Replay/TiVo/WebTV technologies that will provide
  an interesting infrastructure for TV-based
  e-commerce. - Hal Varian

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How will the rise of "always-on" connectivity
change the way the average consumer interacts
with the Internet?

• Most of the time, we will not even be conscious
  that we're interacting with the Internet, just as
  we're not particularly conscious of interacting
  with the electrical supply grid. - William
  Mitchell
• It will mean that most people will at last be
  able to use the Net under the same assumptions as
  the academics who spread it that a computer is
  constantly connected and can send a packet
  whenever it wants. It will mean we will want our
  computers to be instantly on so that we can push
  an icon and get the weather within a second. -
  Tim Berners-Lee
• It lowers the threshold of how valuable a site
  has to be in order for people to visit it. The
  always- on model is more forgiving in what a site
  must offer to get your attention it just takes a
  second to go there and see if anything is new.
  This should produce a more varied Net niche
  culture. - James Fallows

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Even with advances in video and audio technology,
the Internet is largely a words-on-screen
interface. Will that change substantially in
2000?

• It won't. Words have compelling advantages over
  point-and-click they're a much richer mode of
  communication. And communication, of course, is
  what the Internet is about. - Eric S. Raymond
• Nothing will replace words, as they map to
  thoughts so well. I see the future as a wide
  range of media from pure text (may it live
  forever) to the wildest 3D and live video media.
  - Tim Berners-Lee
• Words and images on screen are the most efficient
  way to transfer information. Entertainment will
  continue to occur in appliances. The computer may
  become part of the TV, but the TV will not become
  part of the computer. Adam Beberg

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What future privacy threats should people start
to think about now?

• Location-based profiling cars, cell phones and
  other wireless devices that allow their
  location-specific information to be combined with
  other personal data. And biometrics The real
  question in 2000 is who owns your identity and
  your wake. - Tara Lemmey
• People should think about how increasingly
  ubiquitous digital certificates, depending on
  their design and use, can cause us to reveal more
  information than we intend. - Andrew Shapiro

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Employment Resources Online
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Employment Opportunities

• Atlantic Canadian Sites
• www.brainstalent.com
• www.atlanticcanadacareers.ca
• Canadian Sites
• www.workopolis.com
• www.actijob.com
• www.canadajobs.com
• www.campusaccess.com
• www. canada.careermosaic.com/
• www.careerowl.ca
• www.canada.plusjobs.com
• www.worklinknrg.com
• //jobs.gc.ca
• www.monster.com/.ca
• Employment Agencies online
• Company employment pages

• www.headhunters.net
• Excite - careers
• www.classifieds2000.com
• www.vjf.com
• www.goto.com - jobs
• www.careerbuilder.com