Evolution of Terrorism and Counter Terrorism Measures

1
Evolution of Terrorism and Counter Terrorism
Measures

• Mike Vdovin
• First Annual IIS/IDL Student Conference
• International Security in a Changing World
• October 15-18, 2003
• Yaroslavl, Russia

2
2 phases of terrorism

• 1st stage national state vs local terrorist
  group national or regional level bad equipment.
• 2nd stage a community of states (or only one
  state-policeman) vs terrorist networks global,
  international level lots of money and good
  equipment terrorism is a business for some sort
  of people.
• Interaction between political, financial groups
  and terrorist networks a struggle or a
  collaboration. A new phenomenon a structure that
  deals not only with terrorism, but also with
  politics and business.

3
2 kinds of counter terrorist policy

• 1st phase of the terrorism counter terrorist
  policy 1
• 2nd phase of the terrorism counter terrorist
  policy 2.
• CTP1 cruel and non-personal (general) way of
  actions - zachistki in Chechnya. The result
  tensity and few real terrorists arrested. CTP1 is
  ineffective because the terror wasnt stopped and
  terrorism developed into its second phase.
• September, 11 the nature of the terrorism
  changed. Thats why the world needs a new counter
  terrorist policy CTP2.
•  

4
Counter Terrorist Policy 2

• The ctp2 is headed by the USA. Its main features
• new accurate weapons
• cooperation with other secret services
• work with the poorest developing countries
• struggle with the sponsors of terrorism

5
Terrorists chain

• Sponsors
• Terrorist leaders
• Bandits
• Civilians (victims)

• The most dangerous people here are
• sponsors
• terrorist leaders
• Thats why they have to be the target number one
  for secret services.

6
Why did the ctp1 failed?

• The basic principles of the ctp1
• to eliminate (kill, imprison) all the people who
  have any relations with terrorism
• its possible to use illegal or cruel measures in
  some cases.
• Thats why there are 2 possibilities
• to eliminate all the people connected with
  terrorism in illegal manner
• to employ mostly legal measures.
• The liberal democracies chose the 2nd variant.
  Therefore they werent able to stop the wave of
  terror, that had a chance to develop into its 2nd
  phase. In other case, the democracies risked to
  become totalitarian states.

7
The key features of the ctp2

• the ctp2 deals with problems of security, as well
  as with geopolitical and economical aspects
• the recent example of Iraq the war with
  terrorism can have nothing similar with the real
  terrorism. In that case, such problems as the
  economical growth in the USA, strong dollar or
  oil interests can be more important than the
  security.
• However, the ctp isnt the best way to deal with
  economy and finances, if we consider its benefits
  for a whole country. But it can be very
  profitable for some groups of politicians and
  businessmen.
• There is a need to pay more attention to the real
  problems of global security

8
The US counter terrorist measures

• Iraq
• Afghanistan
• Kosovo
• Africa

9
The war on Iraq

• This conflict doesnt have anything similar with
  the real war with terrorism, its just a way for
  some people to make their power stronger.
• The disadvantages of such conflicts
• the radical Muslim world is becoming stronger, it
  can cause a conflict between the North and the
  South
• the USA employ the mottos of liberation and use
  the term democracy in order to kill people
  without using a court
• the war with terrorism is becoming a global TV
  show. Perhaps, the media is more interested in
  new conflicts and even more powerful than the
  White House.

10
Other regions

• The Taliban hasnt been defeated yet some of its
  structures are ready to carry out new attacks
  Afghan farmers still raise poppy.
• Drug and weapon traffickers in Kosovo enjoy the
  freedom they have after the USA liberated them.
• Lots have been done to prevent creating new
  terrorist bases in the poorest African countries.
  

11
Russian counter terrorist measures

• Russian secret services have learnt how to
  minimize the number of money to terrorist get
  from their sponsors
• they can just minimize the number of dead during
  suicide bombings
• the Chechen bandits get money from the Chechen
  budget by blackmailing or cooperating with local
  officials. Only about 7 of the money in Chechnya
  is used of its purpose 93 belongs to all sorts
  of criminals.

12
Russian and US counter terrorist policies

• Both counter terrorism policies are not
  successful enough. Terrorist attacks in Russia
  and US war operation in Iraq prove this.
• Russian and US mass media report that everything
  is fine and the authorities do all their best.
  However, there are much more problems there that
  it seems now. Some political groups in Russia and
  in the USA are trying to present their war
  campaigns and the methods are used as very
  successful ones. Both societies dont have to
  fully believe their governments, they must check
  everything they are being said.
• The measures are used now are not enough to win
  the war with terrorism. We need some radical
  changes in the ways we deal with terrorism.

13
The connection between the ctp and foreign
relations

• The war in Iraq has showed lots of differences
  between the USA and Europe. The ctp has a great
  influence on foreign policies nowadays.
• There is a dilemma for Russia to be with Europe
  or USA or to have our own way.
• With USA to conduct war with terrorism together,
  no economical advantages.
• With Europe geographical, historical, economical
  reasons. No war with terror.
• Perhaps, its better to combine these two ways in
  order to have more benefit.

14
The things should be done to stop the terror

• The worlds society has to have its own single
  ctp.
• A special intergovernmental organization should
  be created to deal with terrorism.
• The stream of money from sponsors to terrorists
  has to be stopped.
• The connection between terrorism, business and
  politics has to be eliminated.
• The ctp should be more independent.
• Only legal procedures should be used during the
  war with terror.

15
The global counter terrorist operation

• The Americans and their allies discredited the
  idea of the world counter terrorist operation by
  starting the war in Iraq. The threat of global
  terrorism is undoubtedly very high it can
  destroy the modern civilization. However, the
  traditional way of military intervention doesnt
  work if we deal with nongovernmental terrorist
  network. Economical, political, police measure
  should be done by all the countries. Therefore,
  the UN can become more powerful again and lead
  the war with terror.
• The crisis of counter terrorist policy,
  editorial article, Expert, ?33, 2003

16
The measures should be done in Russia

• There are some additional measures should be done
  by Russia
• RF should conduct administrative reform and make
  interactions between local officials and
  terrorists unavailible.
• The people who earn money by the war have to go
  to prison.