Global Warming MythBusters

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Global Warming MythBusters

• Webinar on Science Fact Science Fiction

• Featuring Professor Brian Soden,
• IPCC Author

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Agenda

• General discussion of scientific credibility
• Common myths about climate change
• Questions Answers

Sponsored by the Florida Business Network for a
Clean Energy Economy
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Dr. Brian Soden

• Professor of Meteorology and Physical
  Oceanography
• Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric
  Science, University of Miami
• Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on
  Climate Change, WGI/AR4
• Climate change

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

• 2007 IPCC Report
• Started 2004
• Completed February 2007
• 152 Authors
• 450 contributors
• 600 expert reviewers
• 30,000 review comments
• Contents
• Summary for Policymakers
• Technical Summary
• 11 Chapters
• Frequently Asked Questions
• 5000 literature references
• 1000 pages

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The IPCC Sequence of Findings
IPCC (1990) The unequivocal detection of the
enhanced greenhouse effect from
observations is not likely for a decade or
more. IPCC (1995) The balance of evidence
(gt50) suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate. IPCC
(2001) Most of the warming of the past 50 years
is likely (gt66) to be attributable
to human activities. IPCC (2007)
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one of the most important outcomes of your
study could be a clear statement of our present
ignorance. That in itself should indicate the
need for contingency plans. - Panel Respondent
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The IPCC Sequence of Findings
IPCC (1990) The unequivocal detection of the
enhanced greenhouse effect from
observations is not likely for a decade or
more. IPCC (1995) The balance of evidence
(gt50) suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate. IPCC
(2001) Most of the warming of the past 50 years
is likely (gt66) to be attributable
to human activities. IPCC (2007) Warming is
unequivocal, and most of the warming of the past
50 years is very likely (gt90) due to
increases in greenhouse gases.
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Myth 1Its not warming
Skeptic Argument Response
There are problems with the data record, urban heat island effects, the data show no warming, the data are fudged, etc. Globally, the temperature has warmed by 1.5 F since 1880. Temperature records with urbanization effects are removed. Largest warming is in remote regions Arctic, Canada, Siberia not urban areas Consistent indications of warming in other non-instrumental records. Evidence for warming is unequivocal.
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The World Has Warmed

• Globally averaged, the planet is about 0.8C
  (1.5F) warmer than it was in 1880.
• Eleven of the last 12 years are among the 12
  warmest since 1880.

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Consistent Patterns of Warming

• Mountain glaciers are retreating

• Arctic sea ice is decreasing

• Greenland is melting

• Snow/permafrost decreasing
• Sea level is rising
• Ocean heat content is increasing
• More intense droughts
• Atmospheric moisture increasing
• Heavier rainfall events
• Increased heat waves

WARMING IS UNEQUIVOCAL
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Myth 2 But the globe is cooling!
Skeptic Argument Response
Global warming stopped a decade ago. The earth is actually cooling. Climate change is recorded over long periods of time (at least 30 years) Trends occur over a longer period of time than just 10 years. The experts show no cooling trend and in fact the opposite is actually occurring (e.g., warming trend).
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Climate Models Expect This
Observed and Predicted Changes in Global
Temperature
We dont expect each year to be warmer than the
previous one.
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Myth 3 It was freezing this winter. That
proves global warming is wrong
Skeptic Argument Response
2010 was one of the coldest winters on record for Florida and SE US. Globally, 2010 was the 5th warmest winter (DJF) on record. Big difference between climate and weather. Natural fluctuations can cause local, year-to-year variations in temperature. The signal of global warming emerges from this background noise on larger space and time scales decade to decade changes in global temperature.
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Myth 4 OK, but mankind is not causing the
warming
Skeptic Argument Response
Climate change is happening, but it is a natural phenomenon. Mankind is not impacting climate. The climate has changed before man existed, so this must be natural. There are natural changes in climate, e.g., ice ages, etc. But The changes we are seeing now are much more rapid than anything that weve seen naturally. Natural causes of climate change (sun, volcanoes, orbital changes, plate tectonics) cant explain the warming. The observed warming is consistent with the measured increase in carbon dioxide and other GHGs.
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Evidence for Human Caused Climate Change
The rate of warming over the past century is
unusual.
Temperature Change (oF)
1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
The rapid warming coincides with increasing
carbon dioxide.
CO2 Concentration (ppb)
1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
Carbon Emissions from Human Activity
The increasing carbon dioxide is due to human
activities, primarily burning fossil fuels.
Carbon Emissions
1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
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Myth 5 You forgot about the sun
Skeptic Argument Response
If the earth is warming, then it is because of increases in solar output. Solar radiation is probably one of the most important determinants of global warming. When there is more output, our climate warms. Less output, our climate cools. We can measure solar radiation output and how it changes temperature. In the last 50 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. The current rise in temperatures cannot be explained by changes in solar output alone. Most warming is occurring at night, not daytime. Stratosphere is cooling while surface warms. This is inconsistent with a solar/volcano explanation.
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What About the Sun?
Changes in solar activity contributed to the
warming in the first half of the 20th Century,
but can NOT explain the warming observed since
the1950s.
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Comparison of Modeled and Observed Temperature
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Myth 6 Its a Natural Cycle, like El Nino and
La Nina?
Skeptic Argument Response
Mankind is not responsible for global warming. These are just natural cycles like El Nino. They happen all the time. There is nothing we can do about it El Nino and La Nina happen on very short time scales (2-3 years). They can not explain long term warming trends. Other unidentified natural cycles are just speculation, not science.
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Myth 7 There is no scientific consensus.
Skeptic Argument Response
I read a petition that showed thousands of scientists in opposition to global warming. Over 97 of experts (scientists who actively engage in research on climate change) believe that the climate has warmed and that humans are responsible for most of the warming over the past 50 years. Petitions claiming otherwise are bogus. If youre still a big fan of petitions and conspiracy theories, you should like www.911truth.org
2009 survey by Univ. of Illinois
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Scientific Consensus
The National Academy of Sciences The
scientific understanding of climate change is now
sufficiently clear(we urge) prompt action to
reduce the causes of climate change. 2005
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Most
of the observed increase in globally averaged
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. 2007
American Association for the Advancement of
Science
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Ecological Society of America
Botanical Society of America
American Society of Plant Biologists
American Meteorological Society
American Geophysical Union
American Geophysical Union
American Statistical Association
American Chemical Society
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Myth 8Climate Gate proved theres a
conspiracy.
Skeptic Argument Response
I heard about the ClimateGate scandal on Fox News. Climatologists are manipulating the truth by hiding crucial data. There is a conspiracy that squashes any scientists that isnt on board. The vast majority of data is available to the public and results are reproduced by multiple institutions and scientists. See www.giss.nasa.gov Analyses are repeated and conclusions verified. Two separate UK Parliamentary committees have investigated Climate Gate and exonerated Dr. Phil Jones of any scientific misconduct.
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Climategate 101 Jones e-mail of 16 Nov 1999
"I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of
adding in the real temps to each series for the
last 20 years (ie, from 1981 onwards) and from
1961 for Keith's to hide the decline."
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Myth 10 Climate scientists are in it for the
money.
Skeptic Argument Response
These scientist have a vested interest in making it seem like their research is important. Global warming alarmists and are just doing this to keep the grant dollars flowing. Scientists are paid to investigate things that are uncertain, not certain. By emphasizing certainty in their predictions, scientists are undermining their argument for research funds.
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Follow the Money
www.ExxonSecrets.org
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Fossil Fuel Funding

• Since 1998, ExxonMobil has put 22,123,456 toward
  climate science denial.
• Pat Michaels - Dr. Michaels has acknowledged
  that 20 of his funding comes from fossil fuel
  sources.
• The Heartland Institute - 830,000 from Exxon
• The CATO Institute - 125,000 from Exxon
• American Enterprise Institute - 1,860,000 from
  Exxon
• George C. Marshall Institute - 745,000 from
  Exxon
• Heritage Foundation - 565,000 from Exxon
• These financial figures represent Exxon funding
  from 1998 until 2006.
•  
• www.ExxonSecrets.org
•  

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Questions?
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Resources

• Florida Energy Systems Consortium
  www.floridaenergy.ufl.edu
• Union of Concerned Scientists www.ucsusa.org
• NASAs climate change web site http//climate.nas
  a.gov/warmingworld/
• Climate Ethics http//climateethics.org/
• Real Climate www.realclimate.org/
• Clean Energy Works www.cleanenergyworks.us/
• American Business For Clean Energy
  www.AmericanBusinessForCleanEnergy.org
• Clean Energy Stories www.cleanenergystories.org/

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Reliability of Proxy Temperature Records