Title: The (necessary) war on linearity: One engineer
1The (necessary) war on linearity One engineers
(unusual) lifes work.tom peters/1026.2006
2Think!vs.do!
3Apparently our society, not unlike the Greeks
with their Delphic oracles, takes great comfort
in believing that very talented seers removed
from the hurly-burly world of reality can
foretell coming events. Len Sayles/Columbia
(from Henry Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of
Strategic Planning)
4Nothing is more dangerous in war than
theoreticians. Marshall Petain (John Mosier,
The Blitzkrieg Myth, War as Pseudoscience
1920-1939)
5The (Strange) Case of Peter Drucker Michael
Porter vs. The Non-linearistsHERBERT SIMON.
(Administrative Behavior.) JAMES MARCH. KARL
WEICK. (The Social Psychology of Organizing.)
EUGENE WEBB. Henry MINTZBERG. (The Rise and
Fall of Strategic Planning.) JAMES UTTERBACK.
THOMAS KUHN. (The Structure of Scientific
Revolutions.) CHARLES LINDBLOM. Daniel
goleman. INNOVATION BIOGRAPHERS.
(Transcontinental Railroad, Electrification,
Radio, Television, Containerization, DNA,
Computers, Military History, Etc.) MOST
POLITICAL SCIENTISTS. SILICON VALLEY. Etc.
6This book is about luck disguised and perceived
as non-luck (that is, skills) and more generally
randomness disguised and perceived as
non-randomness. It manifests itself in the shape
of the lucky fool, defined as a person who
benefited from a disproportionate share of luck
but attributed his success to some other,
generally precise reason. Fooled by
Randomness The Hidden Role of Chance in Life
and the Markets, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
7Satisficing. Bounded rationality. Technology of
foolishness. Muddling through.
8The Mess Is the Message! Period!An Economic
Interpretation of the Constitution of the United
States Charles Beard (1913)The Box How the
Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the
World Economy Bigger Marc LevinsonTube The
Invention of Television David Marshall Fisher
Empires of Light Edison, Tesla, Westinghouse,
and the Race to Electrify the World Jill
JonnesThe Soul of a New Machine Tracy
KidderRosalind Franklin The Dark Lady of DNA
Brenda MaddoxThe Blitzkrieg Myth John
Mosier
9Linearist Plan it!Non-linearist Try it!
10Recently I asked three corporate executives what
decisions they had made in the last year that
would not have been made were it not for their
corporate plans. All had difficulty identifying
one such decision. Since all of the plans are
marked secret or confidential, I asked them
how their competitors might benefit from
possession of their plans. Each answered with
embarrassment that their competitors would not
benefit. Russell Ackoff (from Henry Mintzberg,
The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning)
11 This is so simple it sounds stupid, but it is
amazing how few oil people really understand that
you only find oil if you drill wells. You may
think youre finding it when youre drawing maps
and studying logs, but you have to drill.
Source The Hunters, by John Masters, Canadian
O G wildcatter
12It is not the strongest of the species that
survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one
most responsive to change. Charles Darwin
13Linearist think!Non-linearist do!
14Execution is the job of the business leader.
Larry Bossidy Ram Charan/ Execution The
Discipline of Getting Things Done
15Excellence1982 The Bedrock Eight Basics 1. A
Bias for Action 2. Close to the Customer 3.
Autonomy and Entrepreneurship 4. Productivity
Through People 5. Hands On, Value-Driven 6. Stick
to the Knitting 7. Simple Form, Lean Staff 8.
Simultaneous Loose-Tight Properties
16We have a strategic plan. Its called doing
things. Herb Kelleher
17Linearist hypothesize!Non-linearist
experiment!
18We made mistakes, of course. Most of them were
omissions we didnt think of when we initially
wrote the software. We fixed them by doing it
over and over, again and again. We do the same
today. While our competitors are still sucking
their thumbs trying to make the design perfect,
were already on prototype version 5. By the
time our rivals are ready with wires and screws,
we are on version 10. It gets back to planning
versus acting We act from day one others plan
how to planfor months. Bloomberg by Bloomberg
19Experiment fearlesslySource BW0821.06, Type
A Organization Strategies/ How to Hit a Moving
TargetTactic 1
20Linearist failure unnecessaryNon-linearist
failure life
21Fail . Forward. Fast.High Tech CEO,
PennsylvaniaFail faster. Succeed
Sooner.David Kelley/IDEO
22It is generally much easier to kill an
organization than change it substantially.
Kevin Kelly, Out of Control
23Reward excellent failures. Punish mediocre
successes.Phil Daniels, Sydney exec
24Message/Implication go for it!C.E.O. to
C.D.O.
25Linearist agtbNon-linearist
bgtaAttitude shapes behaviorBehavior
shapes attitude
26Linearist deliberate!Non-linearist
relentless! Do it right the first
time (Hero Phil Crosby) Never retreat (Hero
U.S. Grant)
27Relentless One of my superstitions had always
been when I started to go anywhere or to do
anything, not to turn back , or stop, until the
thing intended was accomplished. Grant
28Success seems to be largely a matter of
hanging on after others have let go. William
Feather, author
29Linearist logical!Non-linearist
passionate!
30Nothing is so contagious as enthusiasm.
Samuel Taylor Coleridge
31People want to be part of something larger than
themselves. They want to be part of something
theyre really proud of, that theyll fight for,
sacrifice for , trust. Howard Schultz,
Starbucks (IBD/09.05)
32Linearist give me genius!Non-linearist
give me luck!
33This book is about luck disguised and perceived
as non-luck (that is, skills) and more generally
randomness disguised and perceived as
non-randomness. It manifests itself in the shape
of the lucky fool, defined as a person who
benefited from a disproportionate share of luck
but attributed his success to some other,
generally precise reason.We underestimate the
share of randomness in just about everything, a
point that might not merit a bookexcept when it
is the specialist who is the fool of all
fools.Mild success can be explainable by
skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to
variance. Source Fooled by Randomness The
Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
34Linearist spotless academic record!Non-linear
ist a.d.d.
35Linearist measured pace!Non-linearist
Tempo! Tempo! Tempo!
36You miss 100 percent of the shots you never
take. Wayne Gretzky
37the FedEx Economy headline/New York
Times/10.08.05
38Any3 Anything/ Anywhere/ Anytime
39Linearist think! Plan! (r.a.f.)Non-linearist
Try it! Screw it up! Fix it! Try it again!
(r.f.a.) Ready. Aim. Fire.ready. Fire.
Aim. (Or, circa 2006 fire. Fire. Fire.)
40READY.FIRE!AIM.Ross Perot (vs Aim! Aim!
Aim! /EDS vs GM/1985)
41S.A.V. screw around vigorously!The only
possible response to former Xerox chief Paul
Allaires We are in a brawl with no rules.
42Cheap ShotLinearist minimize
cost.Non-linearist maximize revenue.
43Linearist marketing rules.Non-linearist
sales rules.
44Everyone lives by selling something. Robert
Louis Stevenson
45Analysts preferred cost cutting, as long as
they could see two or three years of EPS growth.
I preached revenue and the analysts eyes would
glaze over. Now revenue is in because so many
got caught, and earnings went to hell. They said,
Oh my gosh, you need revenues to grow earnings
over time. Well, Duh! Dick Kovacevich, Wells
Fargo
46CROChief Revenue Officer
47Linearist Background planning, marketing
finance.Non-linearist background sales
operations.
48Operations is policy. Fred Malek
(1974)Execution is strategy. TP (1983)
49Linearist likes ideas.Non-linearist
likes people.
50Leaders do people. Period. Anon.
51- It was much later that I realized Dads secret.
He gained respect by giving it. He talked and
listened to the fourth-grade kids in Spring
Valley who shined shoes the same way he talked
and listened to a bishop or a college president.
He was seriously interested in who you were and
what you had to say. - Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot, Respect
52The Union senior officers rode past the
Confederates smugly without any sign of
recognition except by one. When General Grant
reached the line of ragged, filthy, bloody,
despairing prisoners strung out on each side of
the bridge, he lifted his hat and held it over
his head until he passed the last man of that
living funeral cortege. He was the only officer
in that whole train who recognized us as being on
the face of the earth. quote within a quote
from diary of a Confederate soldier
53Linearist likes parts.Non-linearist
likes wholes.
54The Mexican Sierra has 17 plus 15 plus 9 spines
in the dorsal fin. These can easily be counted.
But if the sierra strikes on the line so that our
hands are burned, if the fish sounds and nearly
escapes and finally comes in over the rail, his
colors pulsing and his tail beating the air, a
whole new relational externality has come into
beingan entity which is more than the sum of the
fish plus the fisherman. The only way to count
the spines of the sierra unaffected by this
second relational reality is to sit in a
laboratory, open an evil-smelling jar, remove a
stiff colorless fish from the formalin solution,
count the spines and write the truth. There you
have recorded a reality which cannot be
assailedprobably the least important reality
concerning the fish or yourself,. It is good to
know what you are doing . The man with this
pickled fish has set down one truth and recorded
in his experience many lies. The fish is not that
color, that texture, that dead, nor does he smell
that way. John Steinbeck
55Linearist office walls.Non-linearist
office none.
56Linearist style meetings.Non-linearist
style m.b.w.a. Managing by wandering around
57Linearist reads michael porter. Peter
drucker.Non-linearist reads waterman
peters. Tom clancy. Michael peterBob
tom tom
58Linearist reads michael porter. Peter
drucker.Non-linearist reads doesnt
59Linearist preferred baseball score
1-0.Non-linearist preferred baseball score
11-9.
60Linearist preferred football score
7-0.Non-linearist preferred football score
41-38.
61Linearist criminal record none.Non-lineari
st criminal record disorderly
conduct.Chronic jaywalking.
62Linearist drives lincoln town car. Ford
explorer (weekends).Non-linearistdrives
bmw. Harley-davidson (weekends).
63The (Strange) Case of Peter Drucker Michael
Porter vs. The Non-linearistsHERBERT SIMON.
(Administrative Behavior.) JAMES MARCH. KARL
WEICK. (The Social Psychology of Organizing.)
EUGENE WEBB. Henry MINTZBERG. (The Rise and
Fall of Strategic Planning.) JAMES UTTERBACK.
THOMAS KUHN. (The Structure of Scientific
Revolutions.) CHARLES LINDBLOM. Daniel
goleman. INNOVATION BIOGRAPHERS.
(Transcontinental Railroad, Electrification,
Radio, Television, Containerization, DNA,
Computers, Military History, Etc.) MOST
POLITICAL SCIENTISTS. SILICON VALLEY. Etc.
64Never forget implementation , boys. In our work,
its what I call the last 98 percent of the
client puzzle. Al McDonald, former Managing
Director, McKinsey Co, to a project team that
included TP
65 You only find oil if you drill wells.
John Masters, Canadian O G wildcatter
66Worth.The.hassle.
67 Some
StuffHard is soft. Soft is hard. Social
stuff. Emotional stuff. Good stuff. Mess
Normal Reality. Rationality Delusional.
(Design accordingly.)Failure Normal Good.
(Reward excellent failures. Punish mediocre
successes.)Do gt Think. Act gt Talk. Action
bias!!!! Experiment!! Decentralization
Holy writ More independent tries.
Implementation-Execution.Strategic planning,
limits thereto. Severe.Severe limits to scale
advantage. Mega-mergers Bad Stupid.Built
to last. Why???????????? Try Built to change
the world.People first! People Power! HR
(SHOULD) rule!Womens world!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Market. Wealth. Leadership.)Aesthetics!
(Design primacy.) (Grace.)EXCELLENCE!MBWA!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Dont over-complicate. (MBWA,
Product, People, Action )Educate for
Risk-taking, Creativity.B-schools suck. Teach
all except whats important. D-School
Cool.Healthcares Big Three Quality.
Prevention. Wellness.R gt C. (Sell! Sell! Sell!)
Free markets work. Free trade works. Rise of
India-China Good thing. Brand You.
Self-reliance!!!!!!!!!!!! Liberation!!!!Survival
PSF/Professional Service Firm mindset.Fun!
(Cool is Cool.)Service-obsessed! (Raving
fans.)Passion-Exuberance-Enthusiasm. Hot
Language. WOW! Insanely great!