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Forward Looking Information

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Title: Forward Looking Information


1
Forward Looking Information
  • The following presentation contains
    forward-looking statements and is made pursuant
    to the safe harbor provision of the Private
    Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Oil and
    gas activities are subject to risks and
    uncertainties inherent in the exploration for
    acquisition, development, operation and marketing
    of oil and natural gas. These risks include, but
    are not limited to, volatility of products,
    prices, uncertainties in reserve estimates,
    drilling risks, operations and production risks
    and environmental issues. Results could vary
    materially from the forward-looking information.
    You are cautioned that such forward-looking
    statements should be read in conjunction with the
    available company information, including the most
    recent Form 10-K/SB, 10-Q/SB.

2
STRATEGY
  • TWO CORE BELIEFS
  • In a commodity business there are no
    competitive advantages. Only lowest cost
    producers survive and prosper.
  • The industry's value creation event is the
    turning to the right of the exploration drill
    bit.
  • We have moved from a world where the big eat the
    small, to a world where the fast eat the slow
  • Klaus Schwab

3
Value Creation/ Destruction
  • What does Contango do to create value?
  • Find and develop natural gas and oil at an
    economically attractive price In a 4 gas world
    1.50/mcfe finding cost plus 1 to get to
    wellhead is pretty good
  • What can happen to destroy value?
  • Drill a bunch of dry holes whos drawing the
    XYZs and how compensated is critical
  • Run out of money
  • Have too much debt/GA
  • Big drop in natural gas prices NOT!
  • Murphy

4
How And What You Count Counts
  • Accounting book value bears only a coincidental
    relationship to intrinsic value
  • Full cost vs. successful efforts
  • Never, never, never let accounting consequences
    influence a decision.
  • If thought corrupts language, language can also
    corrupt thought
  • George Orwell

5
Incentives Drive Behavior
  • Look for managements that have a major piece of
    net worth at risk
  • Focus risk its very difficult to get even one
    thing right
  • Only low cost supplier wins
  • Its the EPS, stupid
  • Dont forget about the denominator

6
Corporate Governance
  • Annual election of all Directors
  • No loans to employees or directors
  • No repricing of options / five year vesting
  • No CEO bonus unless profitable.CEO base salary is
    150,000/year
  • The Company plane is Southwest Airlines
  • Sorry, no charitable giving
  • CEO is the only inside director
  • Transparent accounting
  • Successful efforts accounting for oil gas
    activities
  • Mark-to-Market accounting for hedges
  • Stock options are expensed
  • BOD management observers own 58 of fully
    diluted shares
  • Incentives aligned

7
MCFs Story
8
PEER GROUP COMPSNINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30,
2002
9
Comparison Analysis (1)
10
MCFs Industry Leadership Role
  • Accounting the information GAAP
  • Incentives Alignment no play no pay
  • GA no profit no bonus
  • Hedging to win

11
MCFs Easily Measurable Goals
  • Profitable as a successful efforts exploration
    company in all commodity price environments
  • Grow EPS and NAV/share annually
  • Highest revenue and profit per employee in
    industry
  • Lowest GA as of revenue in industry
  • All in FD costs lt 1.50/mmbtue
  • Debt no greater than 35 of PV10
  • Never report a negative revision to reserve
    report
  • Be the lowest cost producer womb to tomb - in
    the industry.
  • Accounting transparency successful efforts/MTM
    accounting for derivatives/stock options expensed

12
Conclusion
  • By the way, any company worth buying will have
    to pay taxes
  • Warren Buffet Berkshire Hathaway 2002 annual
    meeting
  • What to look for in a small cap E P
  • Major investment by management and BOD 58
  • Right guys drawing the XYZs
  • Bank debt leveraged balance sheet (4 interest
    rate)
  • Low cost/Low burn rate
  • Accounting transparency Economic reality Cash

13
RIG UTILIZATION CONUNDRUM
  • Rig rates are usually positively correlated with
    commodity prices? (R-square 89)
  • Why not this time?
  • Prospects are in short supply even with 5 gas
    and 30 oil
  • Contangos Response
  • 11.0 million in Seismic expenditures Q1/Q2 FY
    2003
  • 17 million total Seismic expenditures
  • Drill phase begins now !

14
THE HIGH OIL PRICES ARE GOOD MYTH
  • High oil prices in the long run are bad for
    natural gas producers
  • Oil the last 100 years has been 20/barrel
  • At 28/barrel last two years 100 billion tax
    increase in U.S. alone
  • Natural gas growth market is electrical
    generation and new homes GNP
  • Nat Gass real competition is coal, nuclear,
    Canada, China and easy money

15
BUSH TAX PLAN
  • Single most important piece of capital formation
    legislation in my 30 year career
  • Rewards Companies that pay taxes i.e. are
    profitable
  • This focus on profits and resulting transparency
    is a huge benefit to the Contangos of the world
  • EDA Excludable Dividend Account declare a
    deemed dividend and shareholder is treated as
    if he or she received an (untaxed) dividend and
    reinvested that amount in the corporations
    stock

16
Crude Oil Front Month (bbl) / Natural Gas Front
Month (Mcf) Trend Line
17
Weve seen this movie before. Never underestimate
elasticity
  • 6.00 Nat Gas not sustainable
  • Supply down to flat at best
  • Demand therefore must be destroyed
  • Industrial America (31 of Nat Gas demand) will
    take the hit.

18
CONCLUSIONS
  • Vicious Volatility
  • Buy Reserves at cycle bottoms
  • Hedge at cycle tops
  • LNG looks good
  • Prospects Rule
  • Both business success and business failure are
    ideally precise. Neither can be talked away.
  • Joseph Schumpeter
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