Reanalysis of Robbery Guidelines

1
Reanalysis of Robbery Guidelines

• Additional Analysis and Proposed Model
• Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission
• June 23, 2003

2
Reanalysis of Robbery Guidelines

• Preliminary models were presented to the Research
  subcommittee and the full Commission in Fall
  2002.
• Commission instructed staff to continue the
  analysis.
• Commission asked staff to provide additional
  information on the impact of changes to the
  robbery guidelines suggested by the preliminary
  models.
• Additional analysis has been performed since the
  Fall 2002 meeting.
• Third analyst examined data
• Further reconciliation of sentencing models
• Impact of proposed models explored

3
Executive Summary

• While the overall guidelines compliance rate in
  FY2001 exceeded 80, compliance for
  murder/homicide offenses was 68.
• Departure patterns for street robbery, robbery of
  a business and bank robbery (no gun or simulated
  gun) favor mitigation while departures for
  robbery in a residence (no gun or simulated gun)
  and carjacking offenses favor aggravation.
• Nearly 1 in 3 offenders with a Category I or II
  violent prior record are sentenced below the
  guidelines.
• Compliance and departure patterns, including
  sentencing patterns within recommended ranges,
  suggest areas in which a model developed from
  recent sentencing data might differ from the
  current guidelines.
• Proposed incarceration in/out model
• Due to the substantial incarceration rates
  associated with these crimes, the proposed
  incarceration in/out model includes only cases
  of attempted/conspired robbery (no gun).
• Under the proposal, all other types of robbery
  are recommended automatically for an active term
  of incarceration.

4
Executive Summary (continued)

• Proposed sentence length model
• Relatively high mitigation in Category I/II cases
  yielded a model with lower primary offense scores
  for offenders with a Category I or II record.
• Use of a firearm is scored under the weapons
  factor these points are not included in the
  primary offense score as under the current
  guidelines.
• Points for additional offenses, victim injury and
  legal restraint at time of offense are higher in
  the proposed model than current guidelines.
• Under the proposed model, scoring provides
  greater distinction between cases involving an
  actual versus a simulated firearm and between
  cases resulting in physical versus threatened
  injury.
• The model includes several of the same prior
  record measures as current guidelines. The
  proposed model captures prior probation/parole
  revocations.

5
Executive Summary (continued)

• Proposed model versus current guidelines
• The proposed model is as or more accurate than
  current guidelines for each offense examined.
• Under the proposed model, the midpoint
  recommendation is higher than the current
  guidelines recommendation for 10 of 12 offenses
  examined. Increases range from an average of .1
  to 4.7 years for robbery of a business (no gun)
  and carjacking (no gun), respectively. Decreases
  in midpoint recommendations average less than 1
  year.
• In 41 of cases, the midpoint recommendation from
  the proposed model exceeds the current guidelines
  by more than 1 year. In less than 22 of cases,
  the proposed model yields a midpoint
  recommendation that is more than 1 year lower
  than current guidelines these are largely
  Category I/II cases.

6
Sentencing Guidelines Compliance - Completed
Acts, No Prior Violent Record
N506
N214
N77
N169
N43
N50
N462
N483
N28
N65
Robbery
Unless otherwise noted, robbery with a gun
includes acts committed with an actual or a
simulated gun. Data represent sentencing
guidelines cases sentenced under
truth-in-sentencing provisions during
FY1998-FY2002. Cases of offenders sentenced to
the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) are
excluded (1.2 of total cases).
Source Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database,
FY1998-FY2002
7
Sentencing Guidelines Compliance -
Attempts/Conspiracies, Prior Violent Record
N252
N1,349
Robbery
Unless otherwise noted, robbery with a gun
includes acts committed with an actual or a
simulated gun. Data represent sentencing
guidelines cases sentenced under
truth-in-sentencing provisions during
FY1998-FY2002. Cases of offenders sentenced to
the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) are
excluded (1.2 of total cases).
Source Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database,
FY1998-FY2002
8
Sentencing within Guidelines Range
Robbery
Unless otherwise noted, robbery with a gun
includes acts committed with an actual or a
simulated gun. Data represent sentencing
guidelines cases sentenced under
truth-in-sentencing provisions during
FY1998-FY2002. Cases of offenders sentenced to
the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) are
excluded (1.2 of total cases).
Source Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database,
FY1998-FY2002
9
Sentencing Patterns under Current Guidelines
Low Rec
High Rec
Midpt Rec
Street No Gun
4.7 yrs.
8.0 yrs.
6.7 yrs.
Mean Sentence 5.8 yrs.
Low Rec
High Rec
Midpt Rec
Business No Gun
6.1 yrs.
10.1 yrs.
8.7 yrs.
Mean Sentence 7.4 yrs.
All low, high and midpoint recommendations, as
well as the actual sentence, are represented by
the mean (average) value. Because sentencing for
completed robbery may include life imprisonment,
cases resulting in sentences of 60 years or more
are excluded (.8 of all cases). Cases of
offenders sentenced to the Department of Juvenile
Justice (DJJ) are excluded (1.2 of total
cases).
Source Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database,
FY1998-FY2002
10
Sentencing Patterns underCurrent Guidelines
Low Rec
High Rec
Midpt Rec
Residence No Gun
5.0 yrs.
8.5 yrs.
7.2 yrs.
Mean Sentence 7.5 yrs.
Low Rec
High Rec
Midpt Rec
Bank No Gun
6.3 yrs.
10.4 yrs.
8.8 yrs.
Mean Sentence 7.2 yrs.
All low, high and midpoint recommendations, as
well as the actual sentence, are represented by
the mean (average) value. Because sentencing for
completed robbery may include life imprisonment,
cases resulting in sentences of 60 years or more
are excluded (.8 of all cases). Cases of
offenders sentenced to the Department of Juvenile
Justice (DJJ) are excluded (1.2 of total
cases).
Source Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database,
FY1998-FY2002
11
Sentencing Patterns under Current Guidelines
Low Rec
High Rec
Midpt Rec
Street - Gun
7.8 yrs.
12.6 yrs.
10.8 yrs.
Mean Sentence 10.0 yrs.
Low Rec
High Rec
Midpt Rec
Business - Gun
9.1 yrs.
12.6 yrs.
14.7 yrs.
Mean Sentence 10.4 yrs.
All low, high and midpoint recommendations, as
well as the actual sentence, are represented by
the mean (average) value. Because sentencing for
completed robbery may include life imprisonment,
cases resulting in sentences of 60 years or more
are excluded (.8 of all cases). Cases of
offenders sentenced to the Department of Juvenile
Justice (DJJ) are excluded (1.2 of total
cases).
Source Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database,
FY1998-FY2002
12
Sentencing Patterns underCurrent Guidelines
Low Rec
High Rec
Midpt Rec
Residence - Gun
8.5 yrs.
13.6 yrs.
12.0 yrs.
Mean Sentence 11.1 yrs.
Low Rec
High Rec
Midpt Rec
Bank - Gun
9.3 yrs.
14.8 yrs.
12.8 yrs.
Mean Sentence 11.6 yrs.
All low, high and midpoint recommendations, as
well as the actual sentence, are represented by
the mean (average) value. Because sentencing for
completed robbery may include life imprisonment,
cases resulting in sentences of 60 years or more
are excluded (.8 of all cases). Cases of
offenders sentenced to the Department of Juvenile
Justice (DJJ) are excluded (1.2 of total
cases).
Source Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database,
FY1998-FY2002
13
Sentencing Patterns underCurrent Guidelines
Low Rec
High Rec
Midpt Rec
Carjacking No Gun
6.3 yrs.
10.2 yrs.
8.7 yrs.
Mean Sentence 10.4 yrs.
Low Rec
High Rec
Midpt Rec
Carjacking Gun
12.2 yrs.
19.0 yrs.
16.3 yrs.
Mean Sentence 15.6 yrs.
All low, high and midpoint recommendations, as
well as the actual sentence, are represented by
the mean (average) value. Because sentencing for
completed robbery may include life imprisonment,
cases resulting in sentences of 60 years or more
are excluded (.8 of all cases). Cases of
offenders sentenced to the Department of
Juvenile Justice (DJJ) are excluded (1.2 of
total cases).
Source Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database,
FY1998-FY2002
14
Robbery Incarceration Rates
N726
N392
N123
N244
N62
N91
N653
N862
N38
N115
N177
N174
Robbery
Unless otherwise noted, robbery with a gun
includes acts committed with an actual or a
simulated gun. Data represent sentencing
guidelines cases sentenced under
truth-in-sentencing provisions during
FY1998-FY2002. Cases of offenders sentenced to
the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) are
excluded (1.2 of total cases).
Source Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database,
FY1998-FY2002
15
Robbery Guidelines Reanalysis

• As with murder/homicide offenses, incarceration
  rates for robbery offenses are very high.
• The proposed incarceration in/out worksheet
  includes only cases of attempted/conspired
  robbery (no gun).
• Only group with incarceration rate below 85.
• Under the proposal, all other types of robbery
  are recommended automatically for an active term
  of incarceration.

16
Robbery Guidelines Reanalysis
Significant Factors for Incarceration In/Out
Decisions In Robbery Cases - Street robbery (no
gun) and attempted/conspired robbery (no gun)
only -
Analysis includes only cases of street robbery
(no gun) and attempted/conspired
robbery (no gun). In the proposed model, all
other types of robbery are recommended
automatically for an active term of
incarceration.
Source Guidelines Reanalysis Database,
CY1997-CY2001 Data based on
Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) automated
records with supplemental
information from the Virginia Sentencing
Guidelines Database
17
Robbery Guidelines Reanalysis

• Significant Factors for Incarceration In/Out
  Decisions
• In Robbery Cases
• Street robbery (no gun) and attempted/conspired
  robbery (no gun) only -
• LEGAL FACTORS ONLY

Analysis includes only cases of street robbery
(no gun) and attempted/conspired
robbery (no gun). In the proposed model, all
other types of robbery are recommended
automatically for an active term of
incarceration.
Source Guidelines Reanalysis Database,
CY1997-CY2001 Data based on
Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) automated
records with supplemental
information from the Virginia Sentencing
Guidelines Database
18
Comparison of Guidelines Factors Incarceration
In/Out Decision

• CURRENT GUIDELINES
• Primary offense (type counts)
• Additional offenses
• Prior convictions/adjudications
• Prior incarcerations/commitments
• Prior juvenile record
• Weapon used
• Victim injury

• PROPOSED MODEL
• Primary offense (type)
• Additional offenses
• Prior felony record (yes/no)
• Prior misdemeanor convictions/adjudications
• Prior incarcerations/commitments

19
Robbery u Incarceration In/Out (Proposed)
Primary Offense A. Attempted or conspired
robbery without a gun 1 B. Attempted or
conspired robbery with a gun 5 C. Street
without a gun 2 D. Business, residence or
carjacking without a gun 5 E. Street,
business, residence or carjacking with a
gun 6 F. Bank robbery with or without a
gun 6
u
4
u
Additional Offenses Years Less than 2
0 2 or more 2
u
Prior Felony Record If YES, add 1
u
Prior Misdemeanor None 0 Conv./Adj. 1 up
to 6 1 7 or more 2
u
Prior Incarcerations/ None 0 Commitments 1
or more 1
Total Score
If total is 3 or less, the guidelines sentence is
Probation/No Incarceration. If total is 4 or
more, go to Section C.
20
Setting the Incarceration In/Out Threshold
Historical In/Out Decision
Proposed Model
21
Robbery Guidelines Reanalysis
Significant Factors for Sentence Length
Decisions In Robbery Cases
Source Guidelines Reanalysis Database,
CY1997-CY2001 Data based on
Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) automated
records with supplemental
information from the Virginia Sentencing
Guidelines Database
22
Robbery Guidelines Reanalysis
Significant Factors for Sentence Length
Decisions In Robbery Cases
CY 1987-1991
CY 1997-2001
23
Robbery Guidelines Reanalysis
Significant Factors for Sentence Length
Decisions In Robbery Cases LEGAL FACTORS ONLY
Source Guidelines Reanalysis Database,
CY1997-CY2001 Data based on
Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) automated
records with supplemental
information from the Virginia Sentencing
Guidelines Database
24
Comparison of Guidelines Factors Robbery
Sentence Length

• CURRENT GUIDELINES
• Primary offense (type counts)
• Additional offenses
• Felony kidnapping or assault scored as additional
  offense (completed carjacking)
• Prior convictions/adjudications
• Prior conv./adjud. against person
• Prior incarcerations/commitments
• Juvenile record
• Prior incarcerations/commitments
• Juvenile record
• Weapon used

• PROPOSED MODEL
• Primary offense (type counts)
• Additional offenses
• Murder or felony kidnapping scored as additional
  offense (any completed robbery)
• Prior conv./adjud. against person
• Prior incarcerations/commitments
• Prior felony property convictions/adjudications
• Prior probation/parole revocations
• Prior incarcerations/commitments
• Prior conv./adjud. against person
• Prior probation/parole revocations
• Weapon used

Completed
Completed
Attempt/ Consp.
Attempt/ Consp.
25
Proposed Model v. Current Guidelines

• Primary offense scores for offenders with a
  Category I or II prior record are lower in the
  proposed model.
• In the proposed model, use of a firearm is scored
  under the weapons factor these points are not
  included in the primary offense score as under
  the current guidelines.
• Points for multiple counts of the primary offense
  are about the same in the proposed model.
• Points for additional offenses are higher in the
  proposed model.
• For all completed robberies, the proposed model
  adds points if additional offenses include murder
  or felony kidnapping (under current guidelines,
  points are added in completed carjacking cases
  when felony kidnapping or assault is an
  additional offense).
• In the proposed model, simulated weapons and
  weapons other than a firearm, knife or explosive
  are not scored for completed robbery for
  attempted/conspired robbery, weapons other than a
  knife, simulated firearm or a firearm are not
  scored.

26
Proposed Model v. Current Guidelines

• Points for victim injury are higher under the
  proposed model.
• The proposed model includes several of the same
  prior record measures as the current guidelines
  however, juvenile record is not a separate factor
  in the proposed model. The proposed model also
  captures prior probation/parole revocations.
• Points for legal restraint at time of offense are
  higher, particularly for offenders on
  post-incarceration supervision or escape
  however, this factor is not scored for
  attempted/conspired crimes.

27
Proposed Model v. Current Guidelines
The change in the midpoint recommendation
attributed to the proposed model is represented
by the mean (average) change. Because the
recommendation and sentencing for robbery may
include life imprisonment, cases resulting in
sentences of 60 years or more are excluded (.8
of all cases).
Source Guidelines Reanalysis Database,
CY1997-CY2001 Data based on Pre/Post-Sentence
Investigation (PSI) automated
records with supplemental information from the
Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database
28
Robbery u Sentence Length (Proposed)
Primary Offense Category I
Category II Other A.
Attempted or conspired robbery or carjacking
without gun or simulated gun (1 count)
30 16 16 B. Attempted or conspired robbery
or carjacking with gun or simulated
gun (1 count) 46 29 16 C. Street without a
gun or simulated gun (1 count) 49 32 20 D.
Business without a gun or simulated gun (1
count) 55 38 25 E. Residence without a gun or
simulated gun (1 count) 58 40 27 F.
Carjacking without a gun or simulated gun (1
count) 78 57 42 G. Bank without a gun or
simulated gun (1 count) 70 50 36 H. Street
with a gun or simulated gun Completed 1
count 72 51 28 2
counts 113 88 57 3 or
more counts 149 119 83 I. Business with a
gun or simulated gun Completed 1
count 78 57 32 2
counts 145 115 80 3 or
more counts 169 136 97 J. Residence with a
gun or simulated gun Completed 1
count 70 50 27 2
counts 98 74 46 3 or
more counts 294 244 186 K. Carjacking with a
gun or simulated gun Completed (all counts)
155 124 88 L. Bank with a gun or simulated
gun Completed 1 count 124 97 65
2 or more counts 147 117 82
u
20 92 84 84 84 84 84 192 270 444 168 348 528 1
92 270 444 246 168 348
10 46 56 56 56 56 56 128 180 296 112 232 352 1
28 180 296 164 112 232
5 23 28 28 28 28 28 64 90 148 56 116 176 64 90
148 82 56 116
Current Guidelines
Under current guidelines, points for use of a
firearm are included in the primary offense
score. In the proposed model, firearm use is
scored under the weapons factor.
Attempted or conspired robbery
Completed robbery
u
Primary Offense Additional Counts Life
20 10 5
u
Additional Offenses 1 1 10
8 1 1 10
6 2 2 20 16 2 2
20 13 3 2 30
24 3 2 30
19 4 3 40 or more
32 4 3 40 or more
25 5 4 5 3
u
Murder or Felony Kidnapping scored Kidnapping
28 Do not score as additional
offense Murder/Homicide 51
u
Weapon Used Other than listed below
0 Other than listed below
0 Knife 12 Knife or
simulated firearm
2 Explosive 17 Firearm
22 Firearm 34
Victim Injury Threatened
0 Emotional 3 Do not
score Physical
14 Serious physical 36
u
u
Prior Felony Conv./ 1 12 1
2 8 Adj. Against Person 2
16 3 12 3 4
19 4 or more
17 5 9 31 10 or
more 43
29
Attempted or conspired robbery
Completed robbery
Prior Felony Property 1
4 Do not score Conv./Adj. 2 or more
8
u
u
Prior Incarcerations/ 1 2
13 1 2 8 Commitments 3 or
more 16 3 6
10 7 or more 13
u
Prior Probation/ 1 2 9 0
or 1 0 Parole Revocations 3
7 12 2 or more
12 8 or more 20
Legally Restrained at Other
7 Time of Offense Supervised
probation 9 Do not
score Post-incarceration supervision/Escape
31
u
30
MIDPOINT RECOMMENDATION UNDER PROPOSED MODEL
Source Guidelines Reanalysis Database,
CY1997-CY2001 Data based on Pre/Post-Sentence
Investigation (PSI) automated records
with supplemental information from the
Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database
31
MIDPOINT RECOMMENDATION UNDER PROPOSED MODEL
Source Guidelines Reanalysis Database,
CY1997-CY2001 Data based on Pre/Post-Sentence
Investigation (PSI) automated records
with supplemental information from the
Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database
32
MIDPOINT RECOMMENDATION UNDER PROPOSED MODEL
Source Guidelines Reanalysis Database,
CY1997-CY2001 Data based on Pre/Post-Sentence
Investigation (PSI) automated records
with supplemental information from the
Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database
33
Accuracy of Current Guidelines and Proposed Model
Except for residence (gun), the proposed model is
as or more accurate for each offense examined
The difference between the actual sentence and
the current/proposed midpoint recommendation is
represented by the mean (average) difference.
Because the recommendation and sentencing for
robbery may include life imprisonment, cases
resulting in sentences of 60 years or more are
excluded (.8 of all cases).
Source Guidelines Reanalysis Database,
CY1997-CY2001 Data based on Pre/Post-Sentence
Investigation (PSI) automated records
with supplemental information from the
Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Database
34
Robbery u Sentence Length (Proposed)
Primary Offense Category I
Category II Other A.
Attempted or conspired robbery or carjacking
without gun or simulated gun (1 count)
30 16 16 B. Attempted or conspired robbery
or carjacking with gun or simulated
gun (1 count) 46 29 16 C. Street without a
gun or simulated gun (1 count) 49 32 20 D.
Business without a gun or simulated gun (1
count) 55 38 25 E. Residence without a gun or
simulated gun (1 count) 58 40 27 F.
Carjacking without a gun or simulated gun (1
count) 78 57 42 G. Bank without a gun or
simulated gun (1 count) 70 50 36 H. Street
with a gun or simulated gun Completed 1
count 72 51 28 2
counts 113 88 57 3 or
more counts 149 119 83 I. Business with a
gun or simulated gun Completed 1
count 78 57 32 2
counts 145 115 80 3 or
more counts 169 136 97 J. Residence with a
gun or simulated gun Completed 1
count 70 50 27 2
counts 98 74 46 3 or
more counts 294 244 186 K. Carjacking with a
gun or simulated gun Completed (all counts)
155 124 88 L. Bank with a gun or simulated
gun Completed 1 count 124 97 65
2 or more counts 147 117 82
u
20 92 84 84 84 84 84 192 270 444 168 348 528 1
92 270 444 246 168 348
10 46 56 56 56 56 56 128 180 296 112 232 352 1
28 180 296 164 112 232
5 23 28 28 28 28 28 64 90 148 56 116 176 64 90
148 82 56 116
Current Guidelines
Under current guidelines, points for use of a
firearm are included in the primary offense
score. In the proposed model, firearm use is
scored under the weapons factor.
Attempted or conspired robbery
Completed robbery
u
Primary Offense Additional Counts Life
20 10 5
u
Additional Offenses 1 1 10
8 1 1 10
6 2 2 20 16 2 2
20 13 3 2 30
24 3 2 30
19 4 3 40 or more
32 4 3 40 or more
25 5 4 5 3
u
Murder or Felony Kidnapping scored Kidnapping
28 Do not score as additional
offense Murder/Homicide 51
u
Weapon Used Other than listed below
0 Other than listed below
0 Knife 12 Knife or
simulated firearm
2 Explosive 17 Firearm
22 Firearm 34
Victim Injury Threatened
0 Emotional 3 Do not
score Physical
14 Serious physical 36
u
u
Prior Felony Conv./ 1 12 1
2 8 Adj. Against Person 2
16 3 12 3 4
19 4 or more
17 5 9 31 10 or
more 43
35
Attempted or conspired robbery
Completed robbery
Prior Felony Property 1
4 Do not score Conv./Adj. 2 or more
8
u
u
Prior Incarcerations/ 1 2
13 1 2 8 Commitments 3 or
more 16 3 6
10 7 or more 13
u
Prior Probation/ 1 2 9 0
or 1 0 Parole Revocations 3
7 12 2 or more
12 8 or more 20
Legally Restrained at Other
7 Time of Offense Supervised
probation 9 Do not
score Post-incarceration supervision/Escape
31
u
36
(No Transcript)