A Flexible Sea Level Generator for Small Island States

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A Flexible Sea Level Generator for Small Island
States
By
Xianfu Lu (SIS09)
At
AIACC Asia Regional Workshop March 2527,
2003 Bangkok, Thailand
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Presentation outline

• Research question
• Methodology used to address the research
  question
• Progress made so far
• Challenges ahead
• Possible solutions to overcome the difficulties

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1. Research question
Overview of the SIS09 project
What are the likely sea level changes over the
next century in the pacific islands?
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2. Methodology
wide range of emissions scenarios and climate
model parameterizations
Global sea level rise projections
Sea level change patterns from GCM experiments
Regional sea level rise scenarios
Tide gauge records
Local relative sea level rise scenarios
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3. Progress made so far

• Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case
  study sites (Fiji Cook Islands) from PSMSL

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3. Progress made so far (continued)

• Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case
  study sites (Fiji Cook Islands) from PSMSL
• Analyzing local sea level trends at the study
  sites

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3. Progress made so far (continued)

• Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case
  study sites (Fiji Cook Islands) from PSMSL
• Analyzing local sea level trends at the study
  sites
• Obtaining IPCC TAR-compatible global sea level
  rise projections

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3. Progress made so far (continued)

• Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case
  study sites (Fiji Cook Islands) from PSMSL
• Analyzing local sea level trends at the study
  sites
• Obtaining IPCC TAR-compatible global sea level
  rise projections
• Obtaining regional sea level change patterns
  simulated by (IPCC TAR reviewed) GCM experiments

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3. Progress made so far (continued)

• Obtaining tide gauge records for the two case
  study sites (Fiji Cook Islands) from PSMSL
• Analyzing local sea level trends at the study
  sites
• Obtaining IPCC TAR-compatible global sea level
  rise projections
• Obtaining regional sea level change patterns
  simulated by (IPCC TAR reviewed) GCM experiments
• Initial analyses of large-scale sea level changes
  from GCM patterns and local ongoing sea level
  change trend

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4. Challenges ahead

• Relatively short tide gauge records hinder robust
  analysis of local sea level change contributing
  factors
• How to disaggregate the eustatic changes and
  other components from the observed local mean sea
  level changes?

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5. Possible solutions

• Relatively short tide gauge records hinder robust
  analysis of local sea level change contributing
  factors.
• Search for additional tide gauge records locally
• How to disaggregate the eustatic changes and
  other components from the observed local mean sea
  level changes?
• Review literature to develop a method to derive
  local components of relative sea level change