Climate Prediction Center CPC Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential

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Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Services,
Products, Partnerships, Potential

• for the
• PRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies
• Wind/Wave Workshop
• Jim Laver
• August 2-3, 2005
• www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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CPC Contribution to Climate Services

• Mission Assess and Predict short-term climate
  variability
• short-term next week, month,
  season(s), out to 1-year
• and consider the longer term
  context
• Responsibilities Scope
• Deliver operational climate nowcasts and
  predictions
• Make them consistent - globally, nationally and
  regionally
• Provide an historical context with help from
  NCDC
• Improve them!
• Vision Climate services as reliable and
  applicable as
• weather services

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Climate Products

• Global Environmental Monitoring
• Where atmosphere, oceans, land, ice
• What temperature, precipitation,
  circulation, drought, SST
• Alaska/Arctic parameters?
• Climate Outlooks
• Where U. S., U. S. Interests abroad, oceans
• What temperature precipitation anomalies
• hazards, drought, hurricane season, El
  Niño/La Niña
• Probabilities of extremes? Storminess?
  Others for AK?

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First Order, Cooperative, Automated,
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• CPC is interested in providing real-time
  monitoring products
• A historical climatology is required for proper
  historical context
• Focus has been on Temperature Precipitation
  Other Parameters??

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Products via CPC Home Page
Includes AO, NAO, PDO, AAO
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U. S. Hazards Assessment Dec 2003
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Example explanation of 8-14 day forecast map.
N
50 chance A, 33 chance N, 17 chance B
33.3 chance A, 33.3 chance N, 33.3 chance B
A
N
N
27 chance A, 33 chance N, 40 chance B
N
Week2 Outlook
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CAS
CDC
OCNskill mask
OFFICIAL
Scripps
OCN
Seasonal Outlook Tools
IRI
ECCA
CFS
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Improving Services Products Through
Partnerships

• National Weather Service NCEP centers,
  regional offices, local offices (WFOs), river
  forecast centers
• NOAA research labs (e.g., Boulder, Princeton,
  Miami), applied research funding (Office of
  Global Programs)
• Inter-Agency USDA (drought, global crops), FEMA
  (hazards), NASA (outlooks ozone), EPA DoD
  (ultraviolet forecasts), USAID (humanitarian
  support), DoE (degree days)
• Academic International universities,
  international desks, bi-lateral agreements,
  World Meteorological Organization, Pacific
  partners, International Research Institute
  (Columbia U.)

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PotentialAreas of Common Interest?

• NOAAs Climate Test Bed accelerate improvements
  in climate predictions subseasonal, seasonal,
  interannual, decadal trends?
• Multi-model dynamical ensembles
• Reanalysis ? Ongoing Analysis of the Climate
  System, Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere, Regional,
  Arctic,
• Assessment of economical benefits of long-range
  forecasts
• Global ocean monitoring and modeling (GODAS)
• Describe current state of the climate better -
  Nowcasting
• New product possibilities ?? - forecasts of
  opportunity, extremes, Week3, Week4, Winds,
  Waves, Storms

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Reprocessing and Reanalysis are Essential
Given the continuing improvement in our
understanding of climate observations and the
need for long time series, reprocessing is a
hallmark of every climate observing system.
Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing efforts,
but risks and limitations abound.
National/international coordination is essential
to a successful program GEOSS must have an OACS!
Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate
System18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado
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The Domain
Regional Reanalysis Domain How does it
complement the proposed Arctic Reanalysis?
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The End(extra slides follow)
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CPC and NOAAs Goals
CPC
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Understand Climate Variability and Change to
Enhance Societys Ability to Plan and Respond
NOAAs Climate Program Matrix and Relationship
to 2005 NOAA Strategic Plan
Programs
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