Iran

1
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Assoc. Prof. MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU
• International Relations Department
• Bilkent University
• Ankara - Turkey
• 02 November 2006
• NATO School
• Oberammergau Germany

2
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Background
• The Puzzle
• Actors in the Puzzle
• Iran
• United States
• European Union
• Russia
• Israel
• IAEA
• An Emerging Crisis?
• Actors perspectives in the crisis
• Problems

3
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Background
• Iran is acquainted with nuclear technology in the
  mid 1950s after the atoms for peace initiative
• European countries like Germany and France, in
  the first place, as well as the United States
  have encouraged Iran in the 1960s and 70s to
  embark upon a large scale nuclear technology
  transfer
• With the influx of huge revenues due to oil
  exports Iran set an ambitious goal of 20,000 MWe
  nuclear energy capacity to be operational by mid
  1990s
• Islamic revolution in 1979 and the war with Iraq
  in the 1980s halted the construction of facilities

4
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Background (contd)
• Iran and Russia signed an Agreement in 1995 for
  cooperation in the nuclear field including the
  construction of two 1,000 MWe LWR in Bushehr
• 30 Doctoral and Masters students are sent to
  Russian institutes every year. To date, some 250
  Iranians received their Ph.D. degrees in Nuclear
  Engineering and Nuclear Physics from Russia
• Iran developed (both through technology transfer
  and indigenously) a complete nuclear fuel cycle
  including uranium milling, conversion, enrichment
  and reactor fuel production facilities as well as
  plutonium reprocessing at laboratory scale

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Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• The Puzzle
• Iran is a State Party to the NPT and it has the
  right to develop these capabilities, indigenously
  or by way of transfers, provided that they are
  not intended to be diverted from peaceful to
  military purposes
• Irans intentions are not clear due to the nature
  of the policies followed by the clerics who
  administer the country since the Islamic
  revolution
• Yet, some Iranians claim to have the capability
  to detonate a nuclear device, but not the
  political decision at the moment and add by
  saying that they want to be admitted to the
  Nuclear Club

6
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors in the Puzzle
• The US sees Irans capability as a threat and
  wants Iran to permanently halt uranium enrichment
• The EU agreed with the US on that, but disagreed
  on the ways and means of dealing with Iran
• Russia disagreed with the requests of both the US
  and the EU, and supported Irans rights under the
  NPT
• Israel does not rule out military attack on
  facilities
• The IAEA cannot verify allegations of Irans
  clandestine work on nuclear weapons design

7
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors in the Puzzle Iran
• Iranian leaders say that they will never agree
  to a permanent cessation of enrichment on the
  grounds of their Article IV rights under the NPT
• They also say they will end cooperation with
  the IAEA if sanctions are imposed on Iran.
  Implicit in their statements is that Iran may
  withdraw from the NPT
• Iran tries to mount pressure on the US by getting
  the support of Muslim countries, Arab
  populations, the Non-Aligned Movement countries,
  and also the moderate Europeans who emphasize
  legitimacy

8
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors in the Puzzle Iran (contd)
• Anti-Americanism and Anti-Israel feelings play
  into the hands of Iran to get worldwide support
• NAM countries and Islamic states dont want Iran
  to give in to the US pressures so as not to set a
  bad precedent for selective (mis)treatement.
• They also see Iran as a potential nuclear
  supplier state who can sell them technologies
  that are denied to them by the US and the
  Europeans
• Iran signed the Additional Protocol and suspended
  uranium enrichment to show its good intentions

9
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors in the Puzzle USA
• Iran constitutes a potential threat to US
  interests in the Gulf region and a direct threat
  to Israel
• The US pursues stick only policy toward Iran
  and and does not discount possibility of military
  action
• The US has limited economic and diplomatic
  leverages and faces difficulties dealing with
  Iran
• Iran is different than Iraq by all accounts, with
  its four times bigger territory, powerful armed
  forces and 70 million population who support the
  nuclear (weapons) program, including those in
  opposition

10
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors in the Puzzle EU
• Europeans encouraged Iran to invest in nuclear
  energy and provided education and training to
  Iranian students and scientists in 1960s and 70s
• They ceased cooperation with Iran in the 1980s
  under the influence of the US, but resumed in the
  second half of 1990s by signing trade contracts
• There are deep divergences of views between the
  US and the EU on the ways and means of dealing
  with international security problems
• EU countries prefer economic and diplomatic
  incentives over coercive policies or use of force

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Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors in the Puzzle Russia
• Russia cut a deal with Iran when it needed hard
  currency to keep up its nuclear industry even
  though the Nunn-Lugar initiative poured
  billions of US dollars to Russia, but also raised
  sensitivities
• Russias cooperation in the context of
  cooperative threat reduction initiatives is
  essential for the US, and thus Russia cannot be
  pressurized beyond a certain limit to stop its
  cooperation with Iran
• With the nuclear deal, Russia gained leverage in
  its relations with Iran to control its ambitions
  to export revolution to Muslim Central Asia
  republics

12
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors in the Puzzle Israel
• Iran is seen by Israel as a credible threat to
  its survival as a sovereign state in the
  territories where it is now
• It is essential for Israel that Iran does not
  acquire nuclear weapons and their delivery
  capability
• Carrying out a limited military strike to
  selected Iranian facilities is among the options
  for Israel
• Apparently, Israel has less concerns with the
  consequences of a military strike than the US,
  and the Israeli population is less divided on
  this issue

13
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors in the Puzzle IAEA
• Established in 1957 to promote peaceful uses of
  nuclear energy among less developed countries
• Its Statute did not perfectly envisage the task
  of timely detection of conversion of significant
  quantities of fissile material from peaceful to
  military purposes as required by NPT later on
• IAEA has no enforcement capability and must be
  impartial and objective in its dealings with
  states
• The composition of the Board of Governors
  sometimes makes it difficult to reach consensus
  decisions

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Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors in the Puzzle IAEA (contd)
• IAEA is in a much better shape since the
  initiation of Program 932 which resulted in
  strengthened safeguards document, namely
  Additional Portocol
• IAEA Director Generals initiative in early 2003
  to set a deadline (Oct. 31, 2003) for Iran to
  sign the Additional Protocol was an important
  step forward
• The Agency does neither want to become leverage
  in US policy to pressurize Iran, nor to serve
  Irans purpose to come clean while much is still
  unknown
• Both the US and Iran complain Good sign, indeed

15
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• An Emerging Crisis?
• Iran proposed objective guarantees including
  permament placement of IAEA inspectors and
  tamper-proof surveillance machines in the nuclear
  facilities in return for which it requests firm
  guarantees from the EU
• Iran wants to avoid military strike to its
  facilities so as not to lose prestige, and also
  not to miss commercial opportunities as a
  potential supplier
• Iran threatens with using everything in its
  capability to damage US interest from Afghanistan
  to Lebanon, and from Gulf to the Mediterranean
  if attacked militarily by the US and/or Israel

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Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors perspectives in the crisis USA
• There are 125,000 US troops in Iraq who may be
  targeted by Iran in retaliation to US military
  strike
• Intelligence failures in Iraq increased
  scepticism and decreased support among the
  Americans
• US intelligence services may not have accurate
  information about all of Irans nuclear
  facilities some of which are built around
  population centers
• Military strike to selected facilities may result
  in insignificant damage to Irans nuclear program
  but may cause significant collateral damage

17
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors perspectives in the crisis EU
• The EU lacks a full-fledged foreign and security
  policy, and a viable security and defense
  identity
• The European Constitutional Treaty has no clause
  on use of force
• The EU does not see Iran as a clear threat, as it
  doesnt believe Iran to have neither the
  capability nor the intention to cause damage to
  its interests
• The young and vibrant population of Iran and its
  export of oil and gas to Europe, indeed, makes
  the EU dependent on Iran, rather than vice versa

18
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors perspectives in the crisis Russia
• After the US military presence in Uzbekistan and
  Georgia, Russia is concerned with further US
  penetration into the Caucasus and Central Asia,
  and thus builds partnership with Iran in the
  region
• Russia may veto any resolution that may be
  brought to the UNSC, which may suggest tough
  sanctions to Iran due to its work on enrichment
• Supporting Article IV rights of the members of
  the NPT is deemed important for Russia, who wants
  the Bushehr nuclear power plant to serve as a
  showcase for its future nuclear exports

19
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors perspectives in the crisis Israel
• Israel may not be convinced to believe that if
  Iran becomes a nuclearweapons-capable state,
  there will be parity between Israel and Iran that
  may help defuse the tension in the region
• Irans nuclearization may trigger other countries
  in the region, most of them being hostile to
  Israel
• There can be no guarantee that Iran will never
  use its nuclear weapons against Israel in the
  future
• For Israel, the cost of doing nothing may turn
  out to be far greater than carrying out a limited
  military strike against Irans selected facilities

20
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Actors perspectives in the crisis IAEA
• It is essential and vital for the IAEA that Iran
  accepts inspections in all nuclear facilities as
  well as other sensitive sites and facilities that
  may be potentially related to nuclear weapons
  production
• If Iran creates frictions in its cooperation with
  the Agency or withdraws from the NPT, there may
  be no way to know about the status of the work
  done in the facilities related to its nuclear
  program
• The IAEA wouldnt like Iran to become a pariah
  state by closing its doors to the world

21
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Problems
• Unsucessful military strike may consolidate
  Irans determination to develop nuclear weapons,
  may mobilize support from around the world
• Even a succesful strike may only retard for
  several years. With its existing indigenous
  technological and scientific capabilities, Iran
  may recover soon and elevate itself to a
  nuclear-weapons-capable state or a de facto
  nuclear-weapons state by withdrawing from NPT
• The divide between the US and the EU may be
  deepened, and anti-Americanism that fuels, among
  others, terrorist attacks against the US may rise

22
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Prospects
• Irans proposal to provide objective guarantees
  may serve as a basis that can be expanded with
  inclusion of unfettered access and inspections at
  any location as if Additional Protocol was in
  force
• In return for economic incentives, such as
  normalization of trade relations, as well as
  improved diplomatic relations within the context
  of a regional security arrangement, Iran may be
  allowed to enrich uranium in a MNC only for
  producing the amount of fuel necessary for its
  nuclear reactors

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Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• The Way Out
• All in all, the ultimate goal should be to
  establish a nuclear-weapons-free zone, and
  eventually, a zone free of all weapons of mass
  destruction in the Middle East, no matter how
  unrealistic it may seem under the present
  circumstances ?

24
Irans Nuclear Ambitions An Emerging Crisis?

• Assoc. Prof. MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU
• International Relations Department
• Bilkent University
• Ankara - Turkey
• 02 November 2006
• NATO School
• Oberammergau Germany