Climate Data Records A Maturity Model and ResearchOperation Transitions

1
Climate Data Records A Maturity Model
andResearch-Operation Transitions

• John Bates
• NOAAs National Climatic Data Center

2
Notional View of GPS-RO
3
GPS-RO Neumonic Device
Steve Martin demonstrates GPS-RO bending angle
4
Outline

• Climate Data Records (CDRs) and Principles of
  Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS)
• CDR Example Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor
  (UTWV or UTH)
• The NASA-NOAA model for research-operations
  transitions of CDRs
• Assessing the maturity of COSMIC GPS-RO

CDRs
UTWV
R-O
COSMIC
5
Principles of Scientific Data Stewardship

• Develop archive stewardship to preserve
  information content of raw data stream,
• Process large volumes of satellite data extending
  up to decades in length to account for systematic
  errors and to eliminate artifacts in the raw data
  (referred to as fundamental climate data records,
  FCDRs),
• Generate retrieved geophysical parameters from
  the FCDRs (referred to as thematic climate data
  records TCDRs) including combining observations
  from all sources,
• Conduct monitoring and research by analyzing data
  sets to conduct climate science and applied
  research Toward a National Climate Service
• Climate variability and change, global water,
  energy, carbon cycles
• Societal Applications GEOSS benefit areas
  Climate Information Records (CIRs)

CDRs
6
Defining CDRs
Climate Data Records
Data (Direct Remotely Sensed)
Time-tagged Geo-Referenced
Sensor DataRecords (SDRs)
CDRs
Converted to Bio-Geophysical Variables
Homogenization and Calibration
EnvironmentalData Records(EDRs)
Fundamental Climate Data Records (FCDRs)
Climate Data Records or Homogenized Time Series
Converted to Bio-Geophysical Variables
Thematic Climate Data Records(TCDRs)
7
Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor CDR

• Upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV or UTH)
  channel has flown operationally since 1979
• UTWV was originally dismissed (until 1990)
• Didnt compare well with radiosondes
• Spectroscopy of WV uncertain
• Lindzens 1990 BAMS paper Some coolness
  concerning global warming spurred new attention
• Water vapor feedback accounts for ½ to 2/3 of
  total global warming in model projections

UTWV
8
UTWV Long-term Intercalibration
Before
UTWV
After
9
Becoming a CDR Benchmark

• An objective benchmark may be determined by
  maturity assessment
• A subjective benchmark is determined by
  independent application of a data set to climate
  monitoring, forcings, or feedbacks

UTWV
Evidence for Strengthening of the Tropical
General Circulation in the 1990s by Chen, Carlson
and Del Genio
10
Thoughts on Benchmark Concept

• The term Benchmark (Goody, 2001) carries
  particular importance in the context of long-term
  climate monitoring and with respect to testing
  the veracity of climate model predictions. The
  central elements in the definition of a climate
  Benchmark are
• Accuracy that extends over decades, or
  indefinitely
• Variable critical to defining long-term climate
  change that is observed on the global scale
• A measurement that is tied to irrefutable
  standards, usually with a broad laboratory base
• Observation strategy designed to reveal
  systematic errors through independent
  cross-checks, open inspection, and continuous
  interrogation
• Limited number of carefully selected observables,
  with highly confined objectives defining (a)
  climate forcings, (b) climate response.
• Just as the concept of truth, as in ground
  truth is perhaps more a religious concept, so
  may be the concept of benchmark
• A better definition may be in the combined
  objective maturity measures (as above) combined
  with the quintessential hallmark of the
  scientific process independent peer review

UTWV
11
Planning Development Path
R-O
12
Core Activities in CDR Evolution

• Sensor calibration and characterization
• Algorithm development and refinement
• Continuing incubation of algorithm alternatives
  that may eventual replace previous standard
• Product (Re-)Processing
• Research Operational agencies co-generate
  Maturity Level 3-4 products as part of transition
• Assures transition readiness
• Product validation and use-driven evaluation
• Archive, Distribution, Documentation

R-O
13
Notional Evolution of a CDR(From NASA-NOAA
Climate Science Working Group)
14
Notional Evolution of GPS-RO(From Anthes et al.)

• Need to map this into NASA-NOAA notional CDR
  evolution Gantt chart
• Do we restore GPS-RO to NPOESS?

R-O
15
Operational Climate Data Records
Prioritization, Production, Productivity
R-O
16
CRD Maturity Research-Operations
NOAA LEAD
R-O
17
Cost Estimation Approach

• Notional CDR lifecycle provides schedule and
  activity breakdown
• NASA historical cost data estimates cost/activity
• Separate Research and Operational cost profiles
• Algorithm maturity determines relative year in
  notional CDR lifecycle
• Production complexity determines multiplier of
  notional cost profile
• CDR ramp-up rate treated as independent
  variable
• Required CDR prioritization straw man
• Maturity and complexity estimates from joint
  agency sensor expert teams (names provided in
  April Panel brief)

R-O
18
Complexity Serves As Multiplier of Notional Cost
Profile

• Factors
• Number, quality diversity of input streams
• Resolutions (vertical, horizontal, temporal,
  spectral)
• Algorithm complexity
• Algorithm outputs (CDRs)
• Cal/Val complexity and cost

R-O
19
NOAA GPS-RO Work (NOAA Industry Day Courtesy J.
Yo)

• NWP
• On-going 3-yr Joint Center for Satellite Data
  Assimilation (JCSDA) development program to
  assimilate GPS-RO data into National Weather
  Services operational Global Forecast System
  (GFS)
• Developed, tested, and implemented the necessary
  components to assimilate GPS-RO observations
  (refractivity and bending angle) in GFS
• Forward models to simulate the observations from
  analysis variables, and tangent linear and
  adjoint models
• Quality control algorithms
• Error characterization models
• Data handling and decoding procedures
• Verification and impact evaluation procedures
• Climate Funded SDS proposal AMS meetings
• Ben Ho - UCAR Validation and Calibration of
  MSU/AMSU Measurements and Radiosonde Observations
  using GPS RO Data for Improving Stratospheric and
  Tropospheric Temperature Trends Analysis
• NOAA GPS-RO Industry Day January 2008

COSMIC
20
Meeting Future Needs (NOAA Industry Day
Courtesy J. Yo)

• Continuity of COSMIC Mission after 2011
• Maintain gain realized for global NWP
• Maintain stable calibration/validation source for
  Climate Data Records
• Provide dense ionospheric soundings for Space WX
• NWP Latency requirement drives downlink needs
• Constellation Approach
• Number/density of soundings proportional to
  number of receivers
• Multiple Global Navigation Satellite System
  Sources
• GALILEO, GLONASS also increases number of
  soundings
• Complementing radiometric satellite soundings
• Recognize that GPR-RO is a KEY PART of the
  solution, not the whole

COSMIC
21
Summary from Industry Day (NOAA Industry Day
Courtesy J. Yo)

• GSP-RO becoming established as data source for
• Numerical weather prediction
• Climate
• Ionospheric sounding
• COSMIC demonstrating benefits of small-satellite
• Constellation approach to GPS-RO
• Now is the time to consider how to maintain
  constellation capability for GPSRO after 2011
• NRCs Decadal Survey published in early 2007
  recommended follow-on GPS Radio Occultation
  satellite mission
• New potential may exist for CDRs and climate
  sensors in NOAA

COSMIC
22
Conclusions

• The foundations of research-operations transition
  of satellite CDRs has begun within NOAA and NASA
• NSF and NOAA should consider that work as a
  template for a potential GPS-RO transition
• COSMIC should adopt a maturity model, assess
  progress on a regular basis, and encourage
  independent applications
• How does GPS-RO ultimately fit in?

23
Backup Slides
24
CDR Maturity Matrix
R-O