Developing Conceptual Ecosystem Models for Longterm Monitoring:

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Developing Conceptual Ecosystem Models for
Long-term Monitoring An Example from the
Prairie Cluster Prototype Program
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Retrospective or Effects --Oriented Monitoring
seeks to find effects by detecting changes in
status or condition of some organism, population,
or community. It is retrospective in that it is
based on detecting an effect after it has
occurred. It does not assume any knowledge of
cause-effect relationships. This includes most
of the monitoring in national parks, such as
measuring changes in foliage condition of trees,
size or trends in animal populations, or
diversity of aquatic macroinvertebrates in
streams, and it takes advantage of the fact that
biological indicators integrate conditions over
time. Predictive or Stressor -- Oriented
Monitoring seeks to detect the known or suspected
cause of an undesirable effect before the effect
has had a chance to occur or become serious (e.g.
stress levels along a geologic fault, presence of
carcinogens in animal tissue, canary in a
coal-mine). It is predictive in that the
cause-effect relationship is known, so that if
the cause can be detected early, the effect can
be predicted before it occurs. (Predictive
monitoring is not commonly used in national parks
because our knowledge of ecosystem processes is
still poor and cause-effect relationships have
often not been established.) National
Research Council. 1995. Review of EPAs
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Program.
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The NRC concluded that in cases where the cost of
failing to detect an effect early is high,
traditional retrospective monitoring was
inappropriate (e.g. acid precipitation, exotic
species effects, ozone depletion, and biological
extinctions) because of the large time lag
required for mitigation, and recommended that EPA
investigate new indicators for monitoring these
threats.
Effects-oriented monitoring does not require
knowing a cause-effect relationship, but if
stressors and effects are both included in the
monitoring, then analyses may be directed at
establishing cause-effect relationships.
Anticipatory Monitoring does not require
monitoring ecological condition or assessment of
endpoints of interest. It attempts to detect
effects as they are occurring by measuring
anticipatory indicators, rather than describing
effects after they have occurred. Its success
depends on the validity of the assumed
cause-effect relations among the stressor(s),
their ecological effects, and the selected
indicators of stress. This approach carries the
risk of failing to detect the ecological effects
of significant but unanticipated stressors.
Noon et al. 1999
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• Monitoring objectives may be met through one
• or a combination of
• Effects-Oriented Monitoring
• (detect change in resource status or condition)
  
• Stressor- Oriented Monitoring
• (cause-effect relationship known)
• Anticipatory Monitoring
• (hypothesized model of stressors, effects, and
• anticipatory indicators)

Example Monitoring Objective Are park
populations of the federally endangered
black-footed ferret stable? Is
black-footed ferret population size stable?
Is the incident rate of canine distemper on the
rise? Is the abundance of black-tailed
prairie dogs changing?
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Why Do We Need Conceptual Ecosystem
Models? Short Answer
You got to be very careful if you dont know
where youre going, because you might not
get there. -- Yogi Berra
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Why Do We Need Conceptual Ecosystem Models?
Long Answer 1
Despite the complexity of ecosystems and the
limited knowledge of their functions, to begin
monitoring, we must first simplify our view of
the system. The usual method has been to take a
species-centric approach, focusing on a few
high-profile species that is those of economic,
social, or legal interest. Because of the
current wide (and justified) interest in all
components of biological diversity, however, the
species-centric approach is no longer sufficient.
This wide interest creates a conundrum we
acknowledge the need to simplify our view of
ecosystems to begin the process of monitoring,
and at the same time we recognize that
monitoring needs to be broadened beyond its usual
focus to consider additional ecosystem
components. Noon et al. 1999
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Why Do We Need Conceptual Models? Long Answer 2
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• Conceptual models are useful throughout
• the monitoring process
• formalize our current understanding of the
  context and scope of the natural processes and
  anthropogenic stressors affecting ecological
  integrity
• help expand our consideration across traditional
  discipline boundaries

• Most importantly, clear, simple models facilitate
  communication between
• scientists from different disciplines
• researchers and managers
• managers and the public

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What conceptual models cant do .. While
conceptual models may help identify core
structural components of the ecosystem,
anticipatory indicators, or important
environmental data, They dont replace the need
to identify the most significant, natural
resources and prioritize among issues!
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Define response criteria
Develop conceptual model
Specify goals
Identify Stressors
Select Indicators
Step 1 Develop Monitoring Objectives
By first considering the most significant park
natural resources and resource issues, we are
better able to define monitoring objectives.
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• Natural resources that NPS is mandated to
  monitor and protect
• federally listed TE species
• other legislated mandates
• Examples
• Are park populations of the federally endangered
  black-footed ferret stable?
• Is the park maintaining high-quality
  black-footed ferret habitat?
• Monitoring questions relating to natural
  resource threats
• Examples
• Is the water quality of Cub Creek declining?
• Is pollution altering the biotic integrity of
  the creek?
• Are invasive exotic species displacing native
  plant species in prairies?
• Is an increase in deer abundance affecting
  woodland species diversity?
• Monitoring questions relating to natural
  resource management practices
• Examples
• Is the prescribed fire regime maintaining
  healthy native prairie?
• Are restoration practices achieving model
  community structure composition?
• Monitoring directed toward assessing long-term
  ecosystem health

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Heartland Network Tallgrass Prairie Parks Most
Significant Natural Resource Issues
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Define response criteria
Develop conceptual model
Specify goals
Identify Stressors
Select Indicators
Identify Stressors and Develop Conceptual
Models Aspects to Consider as Conceptual Models
are Developed from Barber (1994)
1. Identify the structural components of the
resource, interactions between components, inputs
and outputs to surrounding resources, and
important factors and stressors that determine
the resources ecological operation and
sustainability.
2. Consider the temporal and spatial dynamics
of the resource at multiple scales because
information from different scales can result in
different conclusions about resource condition.
3. Identify how major stressors of resource
are expected to impact its structure and
function
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Summarize Key Characteristics and Drivers of
Prairie Ecosystems
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The conceptual model includes
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Conceptual Model of Core Abiotic and Biotic
Relationships Within Terrestrial Prairie
Ecosystems modified from Hartnett and Fay (1998)
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Conceptual model of core abiotic and biotic
relationships within terrestrial prairie
ecosystems, including anthropogenic stressors (in
red) affecting Prairie Cluster parks.
Modified from Hartnett and Fay 1998
Physical impact
Exotic Plant Invasion
Mycorrhizae
Grazers, Cattle
Invertebrates
Watershed and landscape patterns
Grazer selectivity and grazing patterns
Plant community structure
Plant growth demography
Prescribed Fire
Direct Effects
Insects
Birds
Local extirpation emigration and immigration
Resource Availability
Mammals
Drought
Cultural use
Standing dead litter
Fragmentation
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Monitoring Implications From Terrestrial Prairie
Model
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• Underscores need to integrate climate data
  with core datasets and stream flow data with
  water quality monitoring
• Emphasizes important role of prairie soils in
  maintaining both aquatic and terrestrial prairie
  ecosystems
• Stresses climate variability as a defining,
  characteristic of prairie ecosystems and the
  resulting importance of adaptive responses of
  prairie biota to drought
• Reminds us of the complex interaction of
  climate, fire and grazing that historically
  regulated prairie ecosystems
• Clarifies the difficulty of detecting
  human-induced patterns of change against a
  background of high intrinsic variability
• The spatial and temporal variability (of
  prairies) is not simply a hindrance to sampling
  and estimation of plant population and community
  patterns but rather an important characteristic
  of these grasslands of direct ecological
  interest. Hartnett and Fay 1998

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Funding from Natural Resource Challenge for
Vital Signs Monitoring is not adequate to
complete comprehensive monitoring Focus on
most fundamental indicators of long-term
ecological integrity and highest concerns among
the parks in each network
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One of the most difficult tasks is to prioritize
monitoring objectives within the current means of
the program but with vision to the future
Two Approaches 1) Starting with a comprehensive
consideration of all resources and issues --
following a process of elimination or 2)
Beginning with core resources and issues and
defining a building process as funding and
partners become available
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Requires an Iterative Process 1) tentatively
define most important monitoring
objectives (resources and issues for
monitoring) 2) build conceptual models of
resources, stressors and their
linkages 3) re-consider monitoring objectives
within context of models (develop the specific
questions that must be answered to adequately
address each monitoring objective) 4)
revisit monitoring priorities
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• Questions to Consider as Monitoring Objectives
• are Developed and Refined within Context of
  Conceptual Models
• For this monitoring objective, am I primarily
  interested in biotic resource condition (effects
  monitoring), changes in stressor levels, or do I
  need both types of information?
• Do I need to distinguish the effects of
  particular stressors, or I am more interested in
  the resource response to multiple stressors?
• Do the conceptual models suggest anticipatory
  indicators that may help to predict effects
  before they occur?
• Do the conceptual models help identify
  environmental information necessary to
  differentiate natural variability from stressor
  effects?
• Do the conceptual models suggest fundamental
  structural aspects of the ecosystem that may be
  useful in meeting several monitoring objectives?

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Prioritizing among Aquatic Resource Issues
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Monitoring Objective 1 How is nutrient
enrichment associated with cattle grazing
affecting biotic water integrity? Monitor
macroinvertebrate community as indicator of
aquatic ecosystem integrity (integrate pollution
impacts over time) Monitoring Objective 2
Are Topeka shiner populations stable? How is the
quantity quality of Topeka shiner habitat
changing through time? Monitor size and
structure of extant populations Monitor
quantity and quality of gravel-bottomed pools
lacking predatory fish in 1st and 2nd order
streams
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Monitoring Objective 1 How is nutrient
enrichment associated with cattle grazing
affecting water quality? 7 years later .
Macroinvertebrate Data Indicate Declining Water
Quality!
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Monitoring Objective 1 How is nutrient
enrichment and sedimentation associated with
cattle grazing affecting biotic water integrity?
1) Monitor macroinvertebrate community as
indicator of aquatic ecosystem integrity 2)
Sample intensively enough to detect biologically
meaningful trends 3) Compare to local
weather record to assess natural variability
(precipitation, extreme droughts, floods) 4)
Monitor diurnal DO, nutrient levels, and
periphyton to assess trends in nutrient
enrichment 5) Monitor substrate embeddedness,
water clarity to assess sedimentation rates
Monitoring Objective 2 Are Topeka shiner
populations stable? How is the quantity quality
of Topeka shiner habitat changing through time?
1) Monitor size and structure of extant
populations (resulting fish survey will
compliment 1st objective) 2) Monitor
quantity and quality of gravel-bottomed pools
lacking predatory fish in 1st and 2nd order
streams (1-5 from above are complimentary)