Chemistry for Consumers Risk Analysis

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Chemistry for ConsumersRisk Analysis
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Paper cup or plastic cupwhich is better for
the environment?

• A. Paper
• B. Plastic

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www.ilea.org
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From Dow
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Risk Analysis and Management (Morgan, Sci Am
July 1993)
When people are asked to order well-known
hazards in terms of the number of deaths and
injuries they cause every year, on average they
do it pretty well. If, however, they asked to
rank those hazards in terms of risk, they produce
quite a different order.
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People rank risks on

• How well the process in question is understood
• How equitably the danger is distributed
• How well the individuals can control their
  exposure (voluntary?)

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These factors can be grouped for risk analysis
into categories

• Degree of dreadfulness (e.g., affects innocent
  bystanders?)
• How well is the risk understood
• Number of people exposed

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Categories can be used to define a risk space
which pictorially shows how people will react to
a particular hazard. Risks that carry a high
level of dread provoke more calls for
government intervention than some more workaday
risks that actually cause more deaths or
injuries.
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Leading Causes of Death - Canada, 1997
All Cardiovascular Disease(79,457)36
Total Number of Deaths 215,669 Cardiovascular
(ICD-9 390-459) Respiratory (ICD-9 460-519)
Diabetes (ICD-9 250) Cancer (ICD-9 140-239)
Infectious Diseases (ICD-9 001-139)
Accidents/Poisonings/Violence (ICD-9 E800-E999)
Source Statistics Canada, 1997
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Risks and Benefits (Hill Kolb)
Benefits promote well-being or have a positive
effect Risks hazards that lead to loss or
injury

• Desirability Quotient DQ

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Individual Risk (probability x risk)Societal
Risk(probability x risk x
population)
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Possible Cases

• Very Large DQ (large benefit/small risk)
• Very Small DQ (small benefit/large risk)
• ????? DQ (small/small or large/large)

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Examples

• Consumption of milk
• Thalidomide
• Liquidification of coal
• Aspartame
• Others?

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Something practical