Space Weather: What is it How Will it Affect You

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Space WeatherWhat is it?How Will it Affect
You?
Rodney Viereck NOAA Space Environment
Center Boulder Colorado

• An introduction to Space Weather
• What is it?
• Where does it come from?
• What does it do?

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Space WeatherWhat is it?

• Space Weather refers to changes in the space
  environment near Earth

Sun

• Sun
• Energy (386 Billion Billion MegaWatts) released
  in the form of
• Light
• Particles (electrons and protons)
• Magnetic Field
• Activity Cycles
• 27 Days (solar rotation)
• 100 Days Active Region Development
• 11 years
• 22 years
• 88 years

Earth
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GOES Solar X-Rays

• Space weather events are usually initiated by a
  solar flare or a coronal mass ejection
• During a solar flare, the x-ray irradiance can
  increase by several orders of magnitude in just a
  few minutes

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Space WeatherWhat is it?
Space Weather refers to changes in the space
environment near Earth
Sun
Interplanetary Space

• Interplanetary Space
• Solar Wind
• Constant outflow from the sun
• Electrons and protons
• Disturbances from the sun produce waves and
  shocks in the solar wind

Earth
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ACE Solar Wind

• Solar Wind
• Density
• 1 to 100 particles per cm3
• Speed
• 200 to 800 km/sec

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Space WeatherWhat is it?
Space Weather refers to changes in the space
environment near Earth
Sun
Interplanetary Space
Magnetosphere

• Magnetosphere
• Created by Earths magnetic field
• Deformed by the Solar Wind
• Particles (electrons and protons) trapped on
  magnetic field lines

Earth
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GOES Particles and Magnetic Field

• Protons
• Electrons
• Magnetic Field

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Space WeatherWhat is it?
Space Weather refers to changes in the space
environment near Earth
Sun
Interplanetary Space
Magnetosphere
Ionosphere

• Ionosphere
• Layer of electrons at the top of the atmosphere
  (100 300 km up)
• Formed when extreme ultraviolet light from the
  sun hits Earths Atmosphere
• Strongly affected by changes in the magnetosphere
• Critical in the reflection and transmission of
  radio waves

Earth
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POES Ionospheric Particles

• Auroral Oval
• Electrons and Protons collide with the atmosphere
• The collisions excite atoms and molecules to
  produce the aurora

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Other Space Weather Terms

• Solar Flare An eruption on the sun that emits
  light (UV and x-rays) and often particles
  (electrons and protons).
• CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) A disturbance in
  the solar wind caused by an eruption on the sun.
• Solar Wind The outward flow of electrons,
  protons, and magnetic field from the sun.
• Energetic Particles electrons and protons that
  have been accelerated to high speeds.
• Geomagnetic Storm The disturbance in the
  near-Earth particles and magnetic fields that can
  upset technological systems and creates aurora.
• Radiation Storm A large flux of solar
  energetic protons as measured near Earth.
• Radio Blackout An enhancement in the lower
  ionosphere as a result of large x-ray flares.

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Sequence Of Events

• Active Region on the Sun Erupts
• Solar Flare (x-ray)
• Shock (energetic particles)
• Corornal Mass Ejection (particles and fields)
• X-rays reach Earth in 8 minutes (speed of light)
• Energetic Particles reach Earth in 15 min to 24
  hours
• Coronal Mass Ejection reaches Earth in 1-4 Days

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Three Types of Space Weather Storms

• Radiation Storms
• Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
  send out Energetic Particles
• Arrive at Earth in 15 minutes to 24 hours
• Modify the high latitude ionosphere
• Disrupt HF radio communication
• Impacts
• Airline communication
• HF radio operators
• DoD Communications
• Ionizing radiation penetrates into the atmosphere
• Impacts
• Astronauts (radiation)
• Satellite failures

• Geomagnetic Storms
• Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) send out Magnetic
  Clouds
• Arrive at Earth in 1-4 days
• Accelerate particles within the magnetosphere and
  into the ionosphere
• Impacts
• HF radio communication
• Radio Navigation (GPS)
• Electric Power Grids
• Increased Satellite Drag
• Aurora

• Radio Blackouts
• Solar Flares send out x-rays
• Arrive at Earth in 8 minutes
• Modify the ionosphere
• Disrupt HF radio communication
• Impacts
• Airline communication
• HF radio operators
• DoD Communications
• Satellite Communications

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The SunThe Energy Source

• The Sun
• Rotates every 27 days
• Has an 11-year cycle of activity
• Flares produce large amounts of x-rays and
  extreme ultraviolet light but not much visible
  light

A Solar Flare
The sun in X-rays From GOES 12
An Erupting Prominence
Image from NASA TRACE Satellite
Image from NASA SOHO Satellite
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Solar Photons (Light)
X-Ray Flare Variability (minutes)

• Visible light (small slow changes)
• Most of the energy output
• Impacts climate
• UV light (medium slow changes)
• Affects ozone production and loss
• EUV light (large changes)
• Affects radio communication
• Affects navigation
• Affects satellite orbits
• X-ray light (Can change by a factor of 1000 in
  five minutes)
• Affects radio communication

Solar spectrum Solar variability Atmospheric
penetration
Lean
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Product for Radio Operators
TJFR
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CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections) in Interplanetary
Space

• While Solar flares send out light (mostly x-rays)
• CMEs produce
• Energetic particles
• Magnetic structures
• Propagate away from the sun but their paths
  are modified by the background solar wind and the
  suns magnetic field.

Image from NASA SOHO Satellite
Image from NASA SOHO Satellite
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Magnetosphere

• What happens when a CME hits Earth?
• Solar wind is deflected around Earth
• Deflected solar wind drags Earths magnetic field
  with it
• Magnetic field lines reconnect and accelerate
  particles
• Accelerated particles follow field lines to Earth
• Aurora is produced when particles hit Earths
  atmosphere

2. Deflected solar wind drags Earths magnetic
field with it
1. Solar wind is deflected around Earth
4. Accelerated particles follow field lines to
Earth
Outer Radiation Belt
Inner Belt
Aurora
3. Magnetic field lines reconnect and
accelerate particles
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Energetic Particle EffectsSpacecraft Systems

• Systems affected
• Spacecraft electronics
• Surface Charging and Discharge
• Single Event Upsets
• Deep Dielectric Charging
• Spacecraft imaging and attitude systems

SOHO Satellite Image Degradation
Spacecraft Surface Charging (NASA animation)
Polar Satellite Image Degradation
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Energetic Particles Effects Radiation Hazard

• Health Hazards from Energetic Particles
• Humans in space
• Space Shuttle, International Space Station,
  missions to Mars
• Crew/Passengers in high-flying jets
• Concorde carries radiation detectors
• Passengers and crew may receive radiation doses
  equivalent to many chest X rays.

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Ionosphere
Image from NASA IMAGE Satellite

• The particles collide with the atmosphere and
  produce the Aurora and currents in the ionosphere
• As geomagnetic activity increases, the aurora
  gets brighter, more active, and moves away from
  the polar regions.
• Electric Power is affected
• Navigation Systems are affected
• Radio Communications are affected

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Electric Power Transformer
Geomagnetic Storm EffectsMarch 1989Hydro Quebec
Loses Electric Power for 9 Hours
Transformer Damage
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Aurora

• The particles spiral down the magnetic filed
  lines and collide with the atmosphere to produce
  the aurora.
• Colors indicate the atoms or molecules that are
  excited by the incoming particles

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Geomagnetic Storm Effects Aurora
Photo by Jan Curtis, http//www.geo.mtu.edu/weathe
r/aurora

• Intensity and location of the aurora depend on
  strength of storm
• Best time to view is around midnight
• No guarantee that aurora will occur

G1
G3
G5
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Geomagnetic Storms

• Disrupt Radio Communications

• Impact Electric Power Systems

• Disrupt Radio Navigations

• Impact Satellites

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Sun to Earth

• An animation of a space weather event as it
  starts at the sun and end up at Earth
• Solar Flare
• Light
• Particles
• CME
• Magnetosphere
• Deflects the solar wind
• Responds to the disturbance
• Accelerates particles
• Ionosphere
• Accelerated particles collide with the atmosphere
  producing the aurora

NASA Animation
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Space Weather StormsTiming and Consequences

• At T 0, A Flare and CME Erupts on the Sun
• 8 Minutes later First blast of EUV and X-Ray
  light increases the ionospheric density
• Radio transmissions are lost
• 30 min. to 24 hrs. later Energetic Particles
  Arrive
• Astronauts are at risk
• Satellites are at risk
• High altitude aircraft crew are at risk
• 1 to 4 Days Later CME Arrives and energizes the
  magnetosphere and ionosphere
• Electric Power is affected
• Navigation Systems are affected
• Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite
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What Controls the Size a Space Weather Storm?

• The Size of Flare or CME
• Big solar events tend to make big storms
• The Location of the flare site on the SUN
• If it is directed at Earth, it is more likely to
  make a storm
• If it toward the west side of the sun, the
  particles will arrive sooner
• The Direction of the Magnetic Field in the CME
• If the interplanetary magnetic field is
  southward, then there will likely be a big storm
• Note, there does not have to be a solar flare or
  CME to create a geomagnetic storm

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Space Weather Scales

• Three Categories
• Geomagnetic Storms
• (CMEs)
• Solar Radiation Storms
• (Particle Events)
• Radio Blackouts
• (Solar Flares)

Combs Rabin
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How Often Do Space Weather Storms Occur?

• Solar Cycle is about 11 Years

Events Per Month
Radiation Storms 1-4 per month at
max Geomagnetic Storms 3-5 per month at
max Radio Blackouts 50-100 per month at
max Sunspot Number 11-year cycle
Events Per Month
Events Per Month
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year
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The Solar Cycles of the Past

• Sunspots have been recorded for the last 400
  years
• Note that there were no sunspots for nearly 60
  years after 1640
• During the same period, it was very cold in
  Europe. This is a period called The Little Ice
  Age
• Is there a Connection?
• Recent studies say there may be

Solar Minimum
Solar Maximum
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Sun and Climate

• The sun is the primary engine for weather and the
  climate
• Very large climate changes (Ice ages) are known
  to be caused by changes in insolation (amount and
  distribution of sunlight)
• The sun is likely responsible for some of the
  climate change up to 1960s but not the rapid
  increase in temperatures since then.

NCAR Climate Model
Ammann SORCE 2003
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Primary Space Weather Satellites for SEC
NASA STEREO (Ahead)

• Events are observed on and near the sun
• No measurements until the Particles or CMEs are
  99 of the way to Earth
• This provides only 30 minutes lead time for CMEs
  and no lead time for other events

• SOHO
• Solar EUV Images
• Solar Corona (CMEs)

• GOES
• Energetic Particles
• Magnetic Field
• Solar X-ray Flux
• Solar X-Ray Images

NASA SOHO

• ACE
• Solar wind composition, speed, and direction
• Magnetic field strength and direction

L1
NOAA GOES
NASA ACE

• STEREO
• CME Direction and Shape
• Solar wind composition, speed, and direction
• Magnetic field strength and direction

NOAA POES

• POES
• High Energy Particles
• Total Energy Deposition
• Solar UV Flux

NASA STEREO (Behind)
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Summary

• Space Weather Storms come in three main
  categories
• Each category originates from different physical
  processes
• Each category arrives at a different speed
• Each category affects different users and
  technologies

Space Weather Event
Geomagnetic Storms When the CME reaches Earth
Radio Blackouts Bursts of X-ray and EUV radiation
Radiation Storms Energetic Particles (electrons
and protons)
Arrival 8 minutes 15 min. to 24 hrs. 1 to 4
days Time
Systems Radio Comm. Satellites Power
Companies Affected Airlines Astronauts Radio
Comm. Radio Comm. Navigation
(GPS) Satellite Drag