PPP: oportunidades para investimentos compartilhados

1
An Overview of the Brazilian Economy Recent
evolution and perspectives
Miami André Luiz Andrade Bobroff May 19th, 2006
2
Summary

• Fiscal Sector
• External Sector
• Monetary policy
• Economic Activity
• Comparitive figures
• Investment and Opportunities
• Resuming Growth and market forecast

3
Brazil Sound Fundamentals and Economic Growth
for the Rise in Investments

• Fiscal responsibility
• Inflation targeting regime
• Floating exchange rate regime
• The macroeconomic soundness reduces countrys
  fragility and raises the conditions of a real
  interest rate reduction and a sustainable growth
  cycle.

4
Fiscal Policy
5
Primary Surplus
1st IMF Agreement (3)
Source Central Bank
6
Reduction of the Public Sector Nominal Deficit
13,8
10,5
3,7
Source Central Bank
7
External Sector
8
Nominal Exchange Rate and Country Risk
Election concerns
September 11th
Embi
R/US
Inflation Target
Source JP Morgan and Central Bank
9
Brazilian Trade Balance
US billion
Source Ministry of Industry
10
Exports Evolution (US Billion)
Source Ministry of Industry
11
Imports Evolution (US Billion)
Source Ministry of Industry
12
Major Markets For Brazilian Exports GROWTH
2005 US MILLIONS
Source Ministry of Industry
13
Main Products Exported SHARE IN BRAZILIAN
EXPORTS 2005 / 2004 - US MILLIONS
Source Ministry of Industry
14
Foreign Direct Investiment (US billion)
Source Central Bank Market Forecast
15
External Sustainability Indicators
Source Central Bank
16
Monetary Policy
17
Nominal Interest Rate
Source Central Bank
18
Price Index IPCA ( in a year)
Source Central Bank. Market Forecast (median).
Up to may 5, 2006
19
Economic Activity
20
GDP Growth ( in a year)
Source IPEA Forecast
21
Comparative Figures
22
Risk Emergent Markets and Brazil
EMBI Brazil
EMBI Emergent Markets
Source JP Morgan
23
Export Growth ()
2005
2004
Source IMF
24
Foreign Direct Investiment in Latin America (US
billion)
Source Eclac apud UNCTAD
25
Exports From Latin America 2003 of Brazilian
Exports
Source Eclac (Economic Commission for Latin
America and the Caribbean
26
Investments and Opportunities
27
Investments and Opportunities

• Instruments for promotion investments in
  infrastructure
• Public Private Partnership (PPP)
• First PPP Projects
• São Paulo Rail Belt
• Rio de Janeiro Beltway
• BR-116 Highway Bahia-Minas
• Guarapuava-Ipiranga Railway Tranche

28
Market Forecast
29
Baseline Scenarios (Market Forecast)
Source Central Bank. Market Forecast (average)).
Up to may 5th, 2006
30
Dynamic Business environment

• Inflation under control
• Downward trend in country risk
• Strengthening in fundamentals is improving the
  brazilian resilience to shocks
• Sustainable external adjustment
• Primary surplus that guarantees debt
  sustainability

31
Dynamic Business environment

• An outstanding present trade surplus has
  contributed to the adjustment in the balance of
  payments accounts allowing a forecast of another
  surplus in current account
• Government reached all fiscal IMF targets
• Brazil wipe out its entire US15,5 billions debt
  with IMF
• Brazil is Self Sufficient in oil