Stockholm as the WALKING CAPITAL OF EUROPE

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World oil peaking represents a problem like none
other. The political, economic, and social stakes
are enormous. Prudent risk management demands
urgent attention and early action. Peaking of
World Oil Production Impacts, Mitigation, Risk
Management February 2005 a report for the U.S.
Department of Energy, DoE
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People don't want to face this reality. Once you
accept it as a possibility -- not even as a
certainty, but just as one of many possible
scenarios -- then you have to make all sorts of
changes in the way you live, because it would
not make sense not to. Mike Rodgers, ex-oil
geologist now senior director of PFC Energy,
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Design for Powerdown

• Stephen Hinton
• AVBP.NET

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• Management skills trainer, Creative Decision
  Making
• 1997-2001 Ericsson, New Product Introduction
• 2001-2003 Program Manager, SAP implementation,
  Supply Division
• Author Inventing for the Sustainable Planet
• 2003 consultant sustainable development

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WHAT DRIVES ENERGY DESCENT?CHARACTERISTICS OF
ENERGY DESCENT DESIGN APPROACHES FOR POWERDOWN
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Most important design errors are typically made
on the first day So lets explore assumptions
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• The four drivers of energy descent
• Political
• Resource depletion, energy dependency
• Fairness
• Climate disruption

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The EU is a net importer of energy. According to
a report published by the European Commission,
(European Union Energy Outlook to 2020),
two-thirds of the EU's total energy requirements
will be imported by 2020. Eurogas expects that
the EU will also import up to 75 of its natural
gas requirements by 2020. IEA
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Whatever the cause, the argument between Russia
and Ukraine illustrates the new world we are
entering, one in which new sources of energy
became new sources of potential tension and
conflict. Paul Reynolds World Affairs
correspondent, BBC News website 1 Jan 2006
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• The four drivers of energy descent
• Political
• Resource depletion, energy dependency
• Fairness
• Climate disruption

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We have all been enjoying the greatest party the
world has ever seen the great oil party. The
hangover would mean not only the end of low oil
prices but also a slowdown in world economic
growth. Kjell Aleklett, president of the
Association for the Study of Peak Oil, or ASPO,
and a physics professor at Uppsala University in
Sweden.
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Depletion no replacement for cheap oil is in
sight
One dl of oil contains 1kwh, enough to pull a
small car up the Eiffel tower. No alternatives
are available.
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• The four drivers of energy descent
• Political
• Resource depletion, energy dependency
• Fairness
• Climate disruption

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Growth of economic output and oil demand are
closely linked
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Source Kjell Aleklett, Uppsala University
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• Every year, each U.S. citizen uses, on average
• 3, 636 kg of oil
• 2, 340 kg of coal
• 2,136 kg of natural gas
• 0.05 kg of uranium
• If one person-power is 0.25 hp or 635 Btu/hr,
  this is the equivalent of 300 persons working
  around the clock for each US citizen.
• (from Youngquist)

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Increasing energy intensity of developed
countries will not bring increased quality of life
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• The four drivers of energy descent
• Political
• Resource depletion, energy dependency
• Fairness
• Climate disruption

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(with CO2 emission based on population size)
low-income countries would not yet have reached
their quotas and would have the right to continue
emitting carbon dioxide. But middle- and
high-income countries would already have exceeded
their quotas. World Bank website
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Climate system disruption risks rise if GHG
emissions are not curbed
Source EU publication
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The energy descent environment
characteristics Conventional Money will be
tight Globalization models challenged Time will
be short
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Historical evidence of recession with every price
rise
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as they grow economically, they become
increasingly dependent on energy use. Even if
they can avoid collapse if no growth happens,
they need a lot of energy to maintain their
current methods of production and distribution
and hence their income levels. This will be an
enormous burden in future since all types of
energy are likely to become considerably more
expensive in relation to labour because of the
rapid depletion of supplies of oil and gas.
Submission to the Stern Review on the Economics
of Climate Change Richard Douthwaite, Feasta, The
Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability
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• Enabling the world economy to cope with not just
  zero growth but actual contraction requires
  changes in the way that national currencies like
  the pound and multinational currencies like the
  euro are put into circulation.
• There are two reasons for this. One is the fact
  that our present money is created as a debt and
  debts have to be repaid with interest and the
  second is that, if a significant number of people
  in an economy are employed making growth happen,
  they and others will become unemployed if it
  stops.
• Submission to the Stern Review on the Economics
  of Climate Change
• Richard Douthwaite, Feasta, The Foundation for
  the Economics of Sustainability

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The energy descent environment characteristics
Globalization model challenged
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Companies whose profit margins depend on
merchandise made by factories 12,000 miles away
simply won't function in a world of 100-plus
barrels of oil.
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Local manufacturing of essentials
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The energy descent environment
characteristics Why time will be tight
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Mitigation of fuel shortages in transport
infrastructure takes time
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Example high efficiency vehicles
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Combined measures
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The energy descent environment approaches Now
is the time to start Negawatts the new energy
form Systems approach and multi-use Back to
basics Real meaning of wealth not GDP
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When to start mitigation?
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Ten years ahead gives shortfall
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Starting as peak occurs immediate shortfall
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the energy descent environment approaches Negawat
ts the new energy form
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• Energy efficiency is our largest, cheapest,
  safest energy resource
• Efficiency relies on advanced technology, which
  is becoming more plentiful, rather than fossil
  fuel, which is being depleted
• Saving energy usually costs less than buying it
• Remember Cost price X use
• Joel N. Swisher, PhD, PE -Rocky Mountain
  Institute

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• Securing living standards with less energy
• What are the Technical Options?
• Energy Efficiency Buildings, Vehicles, Food
  production
• Renewable Energy Central and Distributed
• Use NOW - much is available!

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Energy is biggest outlay for buildings cost over
life cycle
maintenance
investment
energy
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Savings potential is enormous
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Upgrading to halve energy costs over existing
buildings life time
Source ÅF
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German plant diesel from bio waste, waste oil,
tyres under 5kr a litre
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the energy descent environment approaches Systems
and behaviour (just use less?)
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portfolio of IT initiatives

percentage of resources
Innovate
Value
Frontier Innovation competitive advantage
Info-mate
Auto-mate
Control Decision
Econo-mate
Enhancement Automation
Utility IT cost reduction
Complexity
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the construction of an average 24-kilogram
computer and 27-centimetre monitor requires at
least 240 kilograms of fossil fuel, 22 kilograms
of chemicals and 1,500 kilograms of water or
1.8 tons in total, the equivalent of a rhinoceros
or sports utility vehicle. United Nations
University (UNU) study, 2004
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• Systems and behaviour approach
• identify concerns in specified region
• 2) analyse the behaviours associated with the
  concern
• 3) analyse the systems (physical and attitudinal)
  affecting behaviour
• 4) define reasonable behaviour level
• 5) plan measures across the board
• 6) plan marketing campaign
• 7) get approval of stakeholders
• 8) implement and monitor

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• Example Japanese summer dress code
• Energy security, need for air conditioning
• 2) Suit and tie worn even during hot months
• 3) Air-conditioning, attitudes to dress codes
• 4) Light shirts, casual dress code
• 5) Campaign top down planned
• 6) Chief Cabinet Secretary appears on TV
• without tie or jacket
• 7) Jiro Kawasaki, chairman of the Lower House
  Steering Committee, asks major parties to
  consider new no-tie dress codes for summer.

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The energy descent environment approaches Back
to basics Food security Water
security Long-term emergency services Local
manufacturing of essentials Demand destruction of
transport
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The energy descent environment
approaches Systems approach and multi-use
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System thinking Cars are parked 90 of the time,
used as power source
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The energy descent environment approaches If
economic growth does not bring increased
happiness
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Some countries are far better than others at
converting wealth into human development, as
measured by the HDI. United nations human
development report 2005 17
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• Strategies
• Technology innovation
• better energy, environmental and functional
  performance
• Design methodology innovation
• integrated (whole-system) solutions for multiple
  benefits
• Business model innovation
• capturing customer value, reducing company and
  societal risk, and responding to policy direction

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THANK YOU
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• www.postcarbon.org
• www.energybulletin.net
• www.museletter.com
• www. Alphakat.ch
• www.avbp.net
• http//www.peakoil.net/
• http//www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
• www.globalpublicmedia.com
• http//www.feasta.org/

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