You are not alone: what the public really think about climate change

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You are not alone what the public really think
about climate change

• David FarrarAlnwick Area Friends of the Earth

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• Why don't environmentalists look on the bright
  side and celebrate increased carbon emissions,
  which plants and plankton must absorb to enable
  them to emit the oxygen we all need for our cars
  aeroplanes, power stations, lungs, etc?
• In the unlikely event that human activity is
  causing weather alterations there is
  realistically very little we can do about it,
  given the explosion in world population.
• John Curry Swarland

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• On 8 December I attended my first march against
  climate change in London. I came away cringing.
  The atmosphere was more like a carnival than a
  protest.
• What had the marchers to be so happy about?
  Climate change is a monumentally serious problem.
  The implications of doing something about it are
  huge.
• The march was just too much fun. Where was the
  confrontation and anger?
• Morgan Phillips, London

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• There is nothing about the climate of today that
  is uniquely different from the climates that have
  prevailed at other times in the last 10,000
  years.
• There is, therefore, no reason to believe that
  man has had a significant influence and none to
  believe that the climate has been altered as a
  result of increasing levels of carbon dioxide.
• Hugh Gibson Baird, Seahouses

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• To declare a public health message to base your
  diet around home-cooked, fresh, local, seasonal,
  unprocessed food is, unfortunately, going to do
  little to revolutionise the way we, as a nation,
  eat.
• How are we going to wake up the rest of Britain
  to the looming crisis? Most people seem perfectly
  content to continue driving to their out-of-town
  hyper-supermarket and buying chicken korma
  ready-meals.
• Holly Derry-Evans, London

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• I, for one, still refuse to be bullied into
  paying extra taxes, acquiesce to unproven
  alternative forms of energy generation or be
  coerced into reducing my personal carbon
  footprint, whatever that is, whilst other nations
  build coal fired power stations at a rate of two
  per week.
• Kevin Taylor, High Newton

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• It might seem as though there is a parallel
  between smoking and flying, but there is one
  glaring difference. When the government was
  preparing to mandate health warnings on cigarette
  packets we were not seeing MPs puffing merrily
  away on fags everywhere we looked.
• If the government
• Cuts out all but absolutely essential flights for
  MPs and civil servants
• Instructs its military to fly only the barest
  minimum of training/practice flights
• Stops all airport expansion
• Pensions off the Red Arrows
• Then it could possibly ask the public to think
  before they fly (and pigs might fly, too)
• Marian Van Eyk McCain, Hartland, Devon

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Awareness of climate change is high, and
increasing
Q. Were you aware of these phrases before today?
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Understanding is much less good
Q Which of the following might happen as a
result of global warming/the greenhouse effect?
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Most people think the worlds climate is changing
Q Do you agree or disagree that the worlds
climate is changing?
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Most people are concerned
Q How concerned are you about the impact of
climate change in the UK?
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But people arent convinced were to blame
Q Do you think climate change is a result of
human behaviour or natural changes?
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Summary

• Awareness of the terminology around climate
  change is high, and increasing (90 awareness)
• But lots of confusion over its effects (80 cite
  non-consequences)
• Most people think that climate change is
  happening (95)
• Most people are concerned (80)
• But fewer think it is mostly caused by people
  (67)

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What groups tend to think climate change is
natural?

• From June 2007 results
• People over 65 (38 think climate change is
  mainly or completely natural, compared with 28
  of the whole population).
• People without children(71 of people with
  children think climate change has human causes
  compared with 64 of people without children).
• DE social grades (natural causes AB 26 C1C2
  27 DE 31).

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Why might the number who think climate change has
natural causes be increasing?
Q What impact do you think climate change will
have on your holiday activities?
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Why might the number who think climate change has
natural causes be increasing?
Q What impact do you think climate change will
have on your safety and security?
Record rainfall/floods May-July 07
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How do people form opinions?

• Case 1 The filing cabinet model
• Peoples minds are filing cabinets they contain
  clear opinions on many discrete topics and group
  them into categories.
• Assumption for most opinion polls.
• Demonstrably false
• Response vary over time
• Responses vary with question wording
• Responses vary with question sequence

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How do people form opinions?

• Case 2 Empty filing cabinet model
• Most people
• Have no coherent conceptual ideology
• They have no basis for referencing conflicting
  ideas
• Have little desire to consider the issues.
• Have limited ability to think past the near
  future
• Phillip Converse The nature of belief systems
  in mass publics
• Pierre Bourdieu - Public opinion does not exist

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How do people form opinions?

• Case 3 Untidy filing cabinet model
• People have stable opinions on some issues, but
  attitudes to others fluctuate.
• Multiple conflicting messages stored (cognitive
  polyphasia)
• Attitudes most likely to be stable when
• exposure to the subject is low.
• few countervailing messages (for instance from
  journalists, other political parties, climate
  change skeptics etc).
• target audience have lots of previous media
  exposure to the subject.
• target audience have lots of personal experience.
• John Zaller Nature and origins of mass
  opinion

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How stable are attitudes to climate change?

• Low exposure to the subject
• exposure is steady but not massive
• Few countervailing messages
• skeptics reduced in numbers, but adopting
  different positions, e.g. costs of climate change
  exaggerated
• Previous media exposure to the subject
• many people have little understanding of the
  issue
• Varying personal experience
• personal experience of possible climate effects
  varying from year-to-year.

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Media narratives of climate change
British comic nihilism
Warming is good
CONSENSUS REPERTOIRES
Rhetorical scepticism
ALARM Alarmism Sober alarm Conservative alarm
RESOLVE Reluctant belief Small actions Techno-opti
mism David Goliath
Outlying repertoires not part of the mainstream
Expert denial
Settlerdom
Free market protection
Free rider
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What are people doing to prevent climate change?
Q What is the number one thing you are doing to
tackle climate change?
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What actions could people take?
Q What actions could you take to help limit
climate change?
1.1t
1.2t
0.2t
3.1t
0.1t
0.5t
lt0.1t
0.2t
0.6t
5.2t
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How are UK emissions as a whole changing?
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UK target 80 reduction by 2050 indicative
annual targets
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Barriers to tackling climate change

• Energy saving at home
• Invisibility of energy use
• Desire for warm, bright, convenient and
  entertaining homes
• Habitual behaviour
• No social status or emotional fulfilment
• Marginal cost savings perceived high upfront
  costs
• Distrust of suppliers

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Barriers to tackling climate change

• Microgeneration (domestic wind/solar etc)
• Unfamiliar/eccentric
• Distrust of suppliers
• High capital costs
• Long payback period
• Cant sell surplus electricity back to grid at
  viable rates

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Barriers to tackling climate change

• Reducing car use
• Strong emotional attachment
• Convenience
• Lack of alternatives
• More efficient cars
• Social status
• Image problems of some lower-carbon cars
• Higher upfront costs
• (some types) lack of infrastructure

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Barriers to tackling climate change

• Aviation
• More affordable than alternatives
• Higher social status
• Sense of entitlement to holiday abroad
• Desire to travel
• Increasingly far
• Shorter but more frequent trips
• Friends, relatives, loved ones are more
  geographically spread

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UK Government Analysis
High CO2 impact
Avoid unnecessary flights (short haul)
High impact and common behaviour
Use more efficient vehicles
Install insulation
Use car less for short trips
Waste less food
Low proportion of population
High proportion of population
Increase recycling
Better energy management
Install microgeneration
Adopt lower impact diet
More responsible water usage
Buy energy efficient products
Eat more food that is locally in season
Low impact and uncommon behaviour
Low CO2 impact
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UK Government Analysis
High CO2 impact
Avoid unnecessary flights (short haul)
High impact and common behaviour
Use more efficient vehicles
Install insulation
Use car less for short trips
Waste less food
Low proportion of population
High proportion of population
Increase recycling
Better energy management
Install microgeneration
Adopt lower impact diet
More responsible water usage
Buy energy efficient products
Eat more food that is locally in season
Low impact and uncommon behaviour
Low CO2 impact
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UK Government Analysis
Ability to act
High
High ability and willingness
2. Waste watchersWaste not, want not. You
should live life thinking about what you are
doing
1. Positive greensI think its important that I
do as much as I can to limit my impact
7. Honestly disengagedMaybe therell be an
environmental disaster, maybe not
3.Concerned consumersI think I do more than a
lot of people. Still, going away is important
Willing to act
5. Cautious participantsI do a couple of
things. Id do more, as long as I saw others
were.
High
Low
6. Stalled startersI dont know much about
climate change. I use public transport, but Id
like a car
4. Sideline SupportersI think climate change is
a big problem for us. Id like to do a bit more
Low ability and willingness
Low
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Effect of recession

• Popular argument is that people stop caring about
  environment during a recession. But limited
  evidence to support thisQ Most important/Other
  important issues facing Britain today

Fall in concern preceded economic downturn
Environmental concern holds up in Asian financial
crisis
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Action at what level?
Q How much influence do you think can have on
limiting climate change?
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How to persuade the public to tackle climate
change

• Central government actions
• Many measures can be applied at supply end
  (e.g. renewable obligation certificates) but
  certainly not all
• Information and encouragement
• Does lead to limited increase in action
• But it needs to be easy clear labelling, in the
  right units (e.g. smart metering, miles per
  pound)
• Needs to be accompanied to by measures enabling
  people to act
• Need a clear hierarchy of actions some actions
  are smaller than others
• Green taxes
• Sometimes effective (congestion charge), not
  always (rising electricity and gas prices),
• Distrusted- not spent on the environment
• Always have unintended victims, especially the
  poor

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How to persuade the public to tackle climate
change

• Central government actions (continued)
• Choice editing
• Eliminate undesirable products from sale, e.g.
  incandescent lightbulbs.
• Alleged to be popular, but not yet attempted.
• Personal carbon trading
• Have capacity to be very effective raising
  awareness
• Some losers again (e.g. older housing, rural
  areas, emotive issues)
• Difficult to administer (government and IT
  projects)
• Government green bonds
• Need to be hypothecated

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Sometimes you just have to do it, with or without
public support
Introduction of congestion charging
But the results have to be quickly visible!
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Community action

• The domestic, and the humdrum is also the
  possible
• some initiatives at local level cannot be met at
  individual or national Transition Towns
• Climate change solutions which are real and
  tangible
• solar panels, community wind, food feet
• symbols and concrete means
• Climate friendly behaviour as a conscious
  collective act
• Bridging the gap between small actions and bigger
• Eliminating the free rider problem.
• Harnessing cultural momentum

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A final thought - leading by example

• Avoid validating the deviant actions of a small
  minority of wrongdoers by making them appear the
  rule rather than the exception.
• The hotel towel use experiment 4 different
  cards
• Help save the environment respect for nature
• Help save resources for future generations -
  importance of saving energy for the future.
• Partner with us to help save the environment -
  co-operate with the hotel in preserving the
  environment.
• Join your fellow citizens in helping to save the
  environment - the majority of hotel guests do
  reuse their towels when asked.

Towel re-use 34 higher with the 4th text.
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Poll results
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Which of the following might happen as a result
of global warming/the greenhouse effect?
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How concerned are you about the impact of climate
change in the UK?
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Do you think climate change is a result of human
behaviour or natural changes?
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What is the number one thing you are doing to
prevent climate change?
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What actions could you take/are you happy to take
to help limit climate change?
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Questions / comments?www.alnwickfoe.blogspot.co
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