Dynamics of Deregulation

1
Simulation of Coping to Understand Conflict
Dynamics
George Backus, D.Engr.Policy Assessment
Corporation Denver, Colorado, USA Telephone 1-3
03-467-3566

CU August 19/21 2003
2
Peace And War

• Opposites?
• Blends?
• Wrong Question?
• You cannot understand the future if you do not
  understand the past. We dare not deny what the
  past tells us about ourselves. We cannot make up
  a future that violates who we are.
• Belief/hope is not a valid approach. Math and
  science must have falsification.

3
Math Facts and Fancy

• Conclusions (given facts) will possibly be
  incontrovertible.
  
• Need to find realistic, doable, change in system
  to allow sustainability and stable future.
  
• Optimization is not a valid approach the
  assumptions violate what real humans can do.
  
• Human response represents a distribution --from
  the individual through the global level.

4
Two Days and then Refutation

• The End of the World
• History The present
• History -30 years
• History -6M years
• Limits to Growth and Technological Salvation
• System Dynamics
• Overshoot and Collapse Pacifism Prevents Peace
• The Arms Race US and Russia
• Coping with Peace
• The Distribution of Nothing to Lose
• Every Conflict has a Solution
• United We Fall (Conflicts have No Solution)

5
Morality is a Choice

• Mathematical not philosophical statement
• There is only morality if you choose
• Living in affluent American neighborhood is not
  like living in the Ivory Coast, Liberia, Iraq,
  Afghanistan, Guatemala etc., etc., etc.
  
• Promoting group-hugs and singing Give Peace a
  Chance to stop war is a denial of reality.
  
• In mathematics, you must consider all
  alternatives (all potential choices).
  
• Only when you are faced with the full spectrum of
  possibilities does choice have a moral meaning.

6
End of the World

• A bit of garage engineering
• A bit of history
• 1996 Peace Lithuania-Kaliningrad Border
• 1974 Fuel Processing San Diego, California
• 1984 Cold War Czechoslovakia-Austrian Border
• 1971 Vietnam War Madison, Wisconsin

7
Waiting on an Individual Extremist
8
Very Real Individual Choices

• U239nPu239
• Available to all who have a reactor.
• U235 is 0.007 of Natural Uranium
• Centripetal separation with vacuum cleaner would
  take 5 years.
  
• Fission bomb limit is 2MT
• Fusion has no limit
• Realistic limit is 50MT to avoid catastrophic
  fracture of earths crust.
  
• Requires very high tech and lots of
• Doomsday bomb is too easy to make. (US has
  it?)
  
• You have something to lose. You are not a
  threat.
  
• But if you believed you were right and they
  were wrong

9
Learning from History

• 1996 Peace Lithuania-Kaliningrad Border
• 1974 Fuel Processing San Diego, California
• 1984 Cold War Czechoslovakia-Austria Border
• 1971 Vietnam War Madison, Wisconsin

10
Protesting War

• http//www.leemark.com/featuredcontent/sterling/st
  erling.html

11
Zimbardo Experiment (1971)

• Stanford University Student Pacifists
• Prison Simulation Guards and prisoners
• Violence and Psychological Reality
• The Stanford Prison Experiment is a
  classic psychology experiment. What happens when
  you put good people in an evil place? Does
  humanity win over evil, or does evil triumph? How
  we went about testing these questions and what we
  found may astound you. Our planned two-week
  investigation into the psychology of prison life
  had to be ended prematurely after only six days
  because of what the situation was doing to the
  college students who participated. In only a few
  days, our guards became sadistic and our
  prisoners became depressed and showed signs of
  extreme stress. http//www.prisonexp.org/
• The John Wayne effect
• Fall of Iran and the Ayatollah

12
History 6 Million Years and 6000 Peoples

• Constant Battles Steven LeBlanc (2003)Guns,
  Germs, and Steel Jared Diamond
  
• Not one peaceful people in 6 Million years.
• Peace is an transient accident
• Mahandas Gandhi And Martin Luther King
• Neville Chamberlain and Hitler
• Ecological imbalance is also economics and
  cultural
  
• Technology and Centralized Power
• There is peace within a strongly-governed
  countryif forced.
  
• Technology will lead to abundance for all if
  only the earth were not finite.

13
Good versus Evil
MT MG NB SH ATH AH JS
PP OBL? Good?
Evil?
AH (6-20 Million), JS(7-30M), PP(20 of Pop)
150 years ago life had no value anywhere.
Genocide continues today.

14
Limits to Growth and Technological Salvation

• Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World D. L.
  Meadows (1972)
  
• Discredited except it is still forecasting
  correctly.
  
• Technology can overcome, but at the wrong time.
• Technology extends the low-cost exploitation of a
  finite resource. It delays the hard decisions.
  
• With even weak exponential growth, there is no
  time to substitute from one resource to the
  next.
  
• War is the outcome.
• Mathematical models can change the world.

15
WORLD3 Model
16
Mathematical Simulation System Dynamics

• Business Dynamics Systems Thinking and Modeling
  in a Complex World. John Sterman.
  
• POP(t)POP(t-1)dt(BR-DR)
• d(POP)/dtBR-DR BRPOPFR DRPOPMR
• Feedback, Delays, DQ as causal language
• Complete Constant to Variable, One to Many
• Fear and greed behavior (Only need fear.)

17
Population and Needs
18
Overshoot and Collapse (And War)
19
Detailed Dynamics
20
Resources and Population

• At collapse, all die or some WILL die. It is a
  war choice.
  
• Maya, Indus, Mesopotamia, Moche, etc. are
  examples of the collapse.
  
• If factions, largest (fastest growing population)
  wins.
  
• 26 members of the human family may have existed
  together. Only the ONE best predator survived
  by destroying the others.
  

21
Arms Race

• The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers Paul
  Kennedy
  
• Uncertain Mistrust
• Peace as a Darwinian Dead-End (Is that same
  ultimately true of war?)

22
Unlimited Arms Race
23
The Rise and Fall of Nations
24
Coping With (Human) Nature
25
Figure 1 Attention Behavior
26
Figure 2 Response Behavior
27
Figure 3 Net Active Behavior
28
Figure 4 Steady State Pressure.
29
Figure 5 Coping-Skill Atrophication
30
Figure 6 Maximum Sustainable Growth
31
Figure 7 Near the Limits to Growth
32
Figure 8 Collapse
33
Figure 9 Moderate Coping-Skill Overshoot
34
Figure 10 Gradual Coping-Skill Overshoot
35
Figure 11 Maximum Sustainable Growth with a
Coping-Skill Limit
36
Figure 12 Excess Repetitive Pressure
37
Figure 13 Tolerable Repetitive Pressure
38
Figure 14 Almost Burnout
39
Figure 15 Burnout
40
What is the Probability?

• Any individual bilateral conflict can be
  accommodated via coping.
  
• Given a distribution of incompatible
  (irrational?) individuals, there is no stable
  solution for multiple interacting parties at the
  extremes of the distribution.
• The End probability goes to unity in the
  long-term.
  
• Will an attempt to make all have something to
  lose succeed soon enough?