Integration impact assessment in Lithuania: from an instrument of forming the negotiating positions

1
Integration impact assessment in Lithuania from
an instrument of forming the negotiating
positions to the improvement of administrative
practice

• Dr. Ramunas Vilpiauskas, December 6, 2001

2
The outline

• Transition reforms and integration into the EU
• Public policies through integration strategies
• Public policies and accession negotiations
• Assessing the impact of integration objectives
  and methods
  
• Progress of assessing the integration impact in
  Lithuania
  
• Implications for researchers and practitioners

3
Transition reforms and integration into the EU
many roads, the same destination?

• The same objective freedom and prosperity
  through democracy and market economy
  (constitution, party programs and EU accession
  criteria)
• Reforms and EU accession overlapping in some
  concrete fields and time sequences (general
  liberalization of external transactions and
  removal of barriers to mutual trade
  establishment of property rights, legal framework
  for competition, etc.)
• and diverging in others (relative increase in
  external protection with indirect references to
  the Europe model and direct effects of adopting
  the Common Commercial Policy, Common Agricultural
  Policy faster re-regulation of the economy)
• while still muddling through the others
  (education, health care, security).
  

4
Public policies through integration strategies

• Structuring reforms and setting priorities
  (especially since the mid-1990s)
  
• Providing ground for learning by doing (general
  expertise through integration assessment),
  scapegoat effect (political resource),
  constraining choices and creating expectations
• Creating incentives for better recourse
  allocation in the public field - reforming the
  administrative structures and improving policies
  (also through impact assessment).

5
Public policies and (post) accession negotiations
interacting by

• mobilizing resources through setting the
  deadlines and creating incentives for competition
  among countries
  
• Structuring the policy process through agenda
  setting
  
• Strengthening the need for the exchange of
  information and accountability (not necessarily
  to general public)
  
• Encouraging the formalistic view of policy making
  and overload of implementation process
  
• Creating incentives for learning and coordination
  (better use of resources) and progressing from
  intuitive integration/public policy impact
  assessment to a more elaborate methods of
  improving policies by evaluation, especially when
  transition periods are likely.

6
Public policies and accession negotiations
negotiating for a public good or being a captive
of external and narrow domestic preferences?

• Chapters where transition periods are agreed by
  Lithuania and the EU free movement of goods
  (1), free movement of services (2 and 1
  exception), environment (3)
• To be negotiated by Lithuania agriculture (13),
  transport policy (3), taxation (1 and 1
  exception), energy (1), financial and budgetary
  provisions (1).
• Are they determined by the preferences of the EU
  (but internal market?), domestic lobby groups,
  administrative capacity, lack of recourses and a
  need to invest (regulatory gap)? integration
  impact assessment could provide some answers.

7
Assessing the impact of integration objectives

• Providing data for the accession negotiations by
  reducing the information asymmetries and
  providing arguments
  
• Increasing the transparency, information and
  accountability to the public through the feedback
  and better quality information
  
• Improving and rationalizing public policies
  through a better choice of policy measures,
  coordination of procedures, better budgetary
  planning, and evaluation of previous policy
  instruments.

8
Assessing the impact of integration methods

• Opinion (business) surveys
• Sectoral impact assessment studies
• Estimating budgetary flows
• Macroeconomic modeling
• Regulatory impact assessment

9
Progress of assessing the integration impact in
Lithuania

• Occasional popular (business) surveys
• A number of sector studies and policy field
  studies (i.e. transport, external trade policy,
  impact on relations with the Kaliningrad region
  (IIRPS))
• Preliminary estimates of budgetary flows made
  (comparative analysis of contributions to and
  inflows from the EU budget)
  
• Macroeconomic modeling being prepared (some work
  undertaken in collecting data for trade
  creation/diversion analysis by the MFA)
  
• Around 20 regulatory impact assessment studies
  undertaken or initiated by the European Committee
  and non-governmental institutions (LFMI)

10
Progress of assessing the integration impact in
Lithuania (continued)

• Most regulatory impact assessment studies have
  been undertaken for a single regulatory act (EU
  directive or regulation), some on sector
  regulations (i.e. transport), and some on a
  company level.
• Most regulatory impact assessments have so far
  been driven by negotiations needs, anticipated
  degree of regulatory gap between Lithuania and
  the EU, and available resources (most popular
  fields environment, transport, agriculture,
  free movements)
• Almost all have been too deep and complex to be
  undertaken by the governmental institutions.

11
Progress of assessing the integration impact in
Lithuania (continued) some general substantive
conclusions

• Businesses which already trade with the EU and
  are otherwise internationalized are best adopted
  for adjustment
  
• The least reformed (most protected) sectors are
  the ones to experience the highest pressure of
  regulatory (and competitive) adjustment
  
• The regulatory gap and, consequently, the
  adjustment costs vary depending on a concrete
  case and do not always imply upgrading of
  regulation (i.e. safety at work)
• In some cases, integration provides and
  additional incentive for the enforcement of
  already existing regulations (i.e. norms for
  water).

12
Progress of assessing the integration impact in
Lithuania (continued) some methodological
conclusions

• It is still often impossible to differentiate
  between transition reforms and integration
  measures, especially on a more general level
  
• It is often difficult to conduct an ex post
  impact analysis (when regulations are aligned for
  some time already)
  
• Administrative and institutional impact is as a
  rule easier to identify than an impact on
  business and consumers
  
• Any quantification is subject to a number of
  assumptions and qualifications.
  

13
Implications for researchers integration impact
assessment provides a good basis

• for analyzing the relationship between the
  transition reforms and EU accession,
  
• for applying social science methods to
  integration studies,
  
• for drawing both political and economic
  (normative) conclusions and providing policy
  recommendations.

14
Implications for practitioners integration
impact assessment provides a good basis

• for a better informed policy making and choices
  in public policy instruments,
  
• for a more effective achievement of policy
  objectives,
  
• for a more capable public administration work
  once the (shallow) regulatory impact assessments
  become a routine in the policy process,
  
• for a better representation of countrys
  interests after accession into the EU.