Automated Flash Flood Forecasting Systems

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Automated Flash Flood Forecasting Systems
International Workshop on Flash Flood
Forecasting San Jose, Costa Rica, 13-17 March
2006 Session 2 Emerging Technologies

• Fact or Fantasy?

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Urban Drainage and Flood Control District
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Motivation
1976
1996
1985
1972
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Early Prediction Notification

• Meteorological Support (27 years)
• National Weather Service
• Urban Drainage and Flood Control
  District(Private Meteorologist)
• Local Flood Warning Program
• early notification, forecasting, detection and
  warning capabilities(Basin-Specific Flood
  Warning Plans)
• EOC Activation
• communications, weather/flood monitoring, early
  mobilization, coordination

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Our Major DilemmaTime
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ALERT Systems

• Automated Local Evaluation in Real-Time

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Automated Flood Detection
ALERT Rain Gage
ALERTrain/stream gage
ALERTstream gage co-located with USGS river
gaging station
ALERTweatherstation
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Typical ALERT Site
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Public and Emergency Services Webservers
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ALERT Mesonetbefore the storm
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Real-Time Rainfall Stream Levels
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Emerging Technologies

• Internet-driven paging alarming(push pull)
• GIS integration using XML SVG (the new
  Internet language)
• Multiple data source integration
• Real-time flood inundation mapping
• Build your own custom displays
• Data processing analysis by others
• Decision support for emergency managers

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Rainfall Rate Alarms
Automatically disseminatedvia email and text
messaging
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Automated Alarm Notificationscell
phones/computers/pagers/PDAs
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Data Integration

• One-Stop Shopping

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Rainfall Data Integration
ALERT Rain Gage Network
ALERT CoCoRaHS
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(No Transcript)
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Automated Forecasting?

• You be the judge

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Synchronized Integration

• Animated Display
• TITAN modelfrom NCAR
• NWS Radar
• ALERT Rainfall

Real-time synchronization of surface rainfall
measurements, radar imagery and storm track
forecasting model output
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Emerging GIS Capabilities
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Integrated Flood Threat Recognition
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Real-Time Hydrologic Models
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Aviso Watch Yellow Alert
Aviso Watch Yellow. Observed water levels.
Boulder Creek at Boulder Falls (ALERT 4393).
93936 AM MST Monday, April 18, 2005
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Aviso Watch 3000cfs Inundation
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Aviso Watch Red Alert
Aviso Watch Red. Forecast Basin-avg precip.
Fourmile Creek at Long Gulch (Sub12). 095457 AM
MST Monday, April 18, 2005
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Aviso Watch 12,000cfs Inundation
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Depth Inundation Zones
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And sometimes we just miss the peak.
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Thank you
Kevin Stewart, Manager Information Services and
Flood Warning Program Urban Drainage and Flood
Control District Denver, Colorado Chairman,
National Hydrologic Warning Council