Agricultural Development and Food Security in SubSaharan Africa: Building a Case for More Support MA

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Agricultural Development and Food Security in
Sub-Saharan Africa Building a Case for More
SupportMALAWI COUNTRY STUDY

• by
• Dr A.J.E. Charman

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1. INTRODUCTION

• Malawi a case of high agricultural potential,
  but increasing food insecurity and dependency on
  imports and aid.
  
• Demography
• Population 12,572,000 2 growth, rural X
• Human development constraints
• HIV/AIDs
• Land pressure
• Inequality (gender, wealth distribution)
• Macro-economic development constraints
• Govt. debt
• Market accessibility constraints
• Financial constraints

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2. ANALYSIS OF THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION

• Food supply trends (K.cal/ca/day)
• Recommended 2,261
• But,
• Net production per capita has declined since
  2000.
  
• Food aid (maize) required (1991/92, 1993/94,
  1996/97, 2001/02, 2002/03).
  
• Food imports increasing (wheat, vegetable oils,
  meat, dairy produce).
  
• 32 of smallholders are annually food insecure
  (exhaust own cereal supplies before the
  production season)
  

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Food Production Trends

• Maize increase in prodn. through
  extensification, but yield remain low and prodn.
  subject to cyclical fluctuation due to weather
  and input availability.
• Traditional cereals (millet sorghum) steady
  decrease in production.
  
• Roots and tubers (cassava s-potato)
  significant extension (within farming system and
  nationally) of production.
  
• Legumes diversification (e.g. pigeon pea)
  productivity gains (e.g. groundnuts).

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Maize Production
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Commercial Imports

• Maize
• National consumption dependency on maize
• Imports determined by production shortfall
• State (NFRA) main (largest) importer
• Other cereals and foods
• Imports risen in volume and value
• Trade distortion (vegetable oils dairy
  produce)
  
• Private sector driven
• Low domestic demand (poverty constraint)
• Imports constrained by access to foreign exchange

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3. AGRICULTURAL SUPPORT MAGNITUDE, EVOLUTION AND
TRENDS

• The importance of agriculture
• Largest contributor to export earnings (87)
• Largest employer of labour
• Strong consumption linkages
• Characteristics
• Tobacco, tea, sugar (80 of export value)
• Duel economy (estate and smallholder sector)
• Smallholder resource constrained (ave.
  landholding less than X ha)
  
• Rain-fed cultivation
• Liberalised market
• Constraints
• Access to finance (inputs)
• Markets
• Infrastructure (roads, communications,
  irrigation)
  

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Investment and Expenditure

• Public sector expenditure has declined in real
  and absolute terms.
  
• Agriculture expenditure has declined in relative
  terms (vs. education and health).
  
• Causes
• Structural adjustment
• Debut burden
• Political commitments and social needs
• Consequences
• Undermined specialist services (research,
  extension, veterinary services)
  
• Shift in expenditure from field to headquarters
• Undermined service delivery
• Markets collapsed (ADMARC bush markets)
• Private sector investment has been constrained by
  high costs of finance (interest above 45).

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Comparative Government Expenditure
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Developmental Challenges and Opportunities

• Challenges
• Access to finance
• Little investment in infrastructure
• Poor agricultural extension service provision
• Poverty HIV/AIDs
• Environmental threats
• Technology
• Opportunities
• Input starter packs
• Public-private partnerships
• Markets
• Farming systems (intensification integration)
• Land reform
• Conservation soil fertility improvement

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4. THE IMPACT OF FOOD IMPORT / AID DEPENDENCE

• Food Aid
• Closely linked to emergency operations drought,
  floods, Moz. refugees.
  
• 1987-2001 WFP assisted emergency programmes cost
  174,612,000.
  
• Since late 1990s, programmatic diversification
  (supplementary and therapeutic feeding)
  
• Commercial imports
• Maize imports (total 788,538 mt) in 2002/03 cost
  230.88 million
  
• Lesson
• If the capital expenditure on imports and aid had
  been invested in productivity enhancing measures
  (e.g. TIP), then the comparative return on
  investment would have been 2,489,276 4,200,992
  mt of maize.

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Developmental Impacts

• Food Aid / Imports have been justifiable in
  addressing market distortions, ensuring
  accessibility and in meeting national demand.
  
• However,
• Markets and price destabilisation
• Labour disincentives
• Inaccurate targeting
• Perpetuation of farming system approaches
• Aid dependency
• Opportunity loss (productivity gains)
• Dietary impact on food preferences

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5. SUSTAINABILITY OPTIONS

• An enabling policy environment
• Macro-economic stability
• Institutional reforms
• Global market access and trade
• Rule of law
• Farming system Intensification
• Investment in irrigation
• Input subsidisation
• Rural finance (accessibility and cost)
• Conservation
• Technologies
• Technical support services
• Markets
• Infrastructure (communication, roads, storage)
• Liberalisation

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Conclusion

• 1. Malawi can feed herself.
• 2. The agricultural sector could drive sufficient
  economic growth to enable Malawi to meet her
  poverty reduction goals.
  
• An investment scenario
• 105.5 million, annually for five years
• Maize output will increase to 2,043,211 mt thus
  exceeding national demand.
  
• 790,607 ha arable land could be release for
  diversification / cash crops.