HONEYMOON midterm meeting

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HONEYMOON mid-term meeting

• Espace Eolien Développement (EED)

16th-17th February 2004
David LEMARQUIS
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Synopsis

• Work carried out
• Present work
• What remains to do

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Work carried out

• Other operational wind power forecasting system
  Prediktor, WPPT, Lemnos, EWind, etc
• Advantages of HONEYMOON
• coupling air / ocean
• ensemble prediction ? confidence rate in the
  results

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Work carried out

• Comparison of wind data calculated by HONEYMOON
  at the current stage of development and 6, 12, 24
  and 48 hours forecast with
• measured wind data from a cup anemometer (82m)
• a SODAR on the Dunkirk wind farm site

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Comparisons HNM / measurments
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Comparisons HNM / measurments

• The data produced by HONEYMOON is not really
  comparable to on-site measured data for now, the
  expected errors are important. The sources of
  error are
• the model itself might include distortion or
  errors
• there is no downscaling from the large scale
  calculation to a site specific calculation.
• The correlation coefficient between the cup
  anemometer data and HONEYMOON data is 0.77 at
  time 0, and is almost constant for the forecasts.
• The error (MEA or RMSE) does not increase clearly
  with the time of forecast for the models results
• The persistence model is beaten after 5 or 6
  hours

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Comparisons HNM / measurments
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Work carried out

• Listing of all the differents potential needs
• maintenance scheduling
• aid in bidding into the market
• preparation of next-hour and next-day plant
  schedules
• online regulation
• dispatch decisions
• All these needs are dependant to end-users and
  country ? Questionnaire

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Present work

• Questionnaire distribution / collection
• Definitions of French test cases (with RTE)
• 10 min average windfarm production, for 2 year on
  2 sites, and 4 months on another
• (Physical modeling of real-time forecasting with
  a 100m mast)

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Future work

• Results of the questionnaires
• the different needs in each country
• the different end-users
• Work in PCAT
• Technical validation (offline)
• development of the tests
• test cases
• Economical validation
• different hypothesis in each country

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Summary

• Project should continue
• There are really needs from end-users