POPULATION TRENDS IN REGIONAL AUSTRALIA

1
POPULATION TRENDS IN REGIONAL AUSTRALIA

• by
• Graeme Hugo
• Federation Fellow
• Professor of Geography and Director of the
  National Centre
• for Social Applications of GIS,
• The University of Adelaide
• Presentation to State of the Regions Luncheon,
• Beaufort Community Complex, Beaufort
• 27 July 2007

2
Outline of Presentation

• Introduction
• Population Trends in Regional Australia
• Demographic Issues in Regional Australia
• - Ageing
• - Youth Migration
• - Labour Shortages
• Population Policy Options
• The State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme
• Conclusion

3
Myths About AustralianRegional Population

• The regional population is declining
• The regional population is homogeneous
• Immigrants will not settle in non-metropolitan
  areas
• Policy cannot influence regional populations
• Most sea change and tree change inmigration is
  from capital cities

4
Key Features ofRegional Demography

• Considerable diversity in population growth and
  decline
• Increasing divergence between coastal and inland
  areas
• Higher fertility than metropolitan areas
• Higher mortality than metropolitan areas
• Larger proportion of the population indigenous
• Lower rates of immigration than metropolitan
  areas
• Significant net outmigration of youth

5
Changing Population Distribution Australia
Changing Distribution of the Population Between
Urban and Rural Sectors, 1921 to 2001 Source
Australian Censuses, 1921-2001

6
Average Annual Population Loss in Former
Victorian Local Government Areas 1951 to 1991,
and Current Statistical Local Areas, 1991 to
2001Source Department of Sustainability and
Environment, Victoria, 2005
7
Population Loss in Victorian Local Government
Areas, 2001 to 2006Source ABS 2007
8
Australia SLA Population Change, 2001-06
Source ABS 2007
9
Australia Population Change in Country Towns,
2001-2006 Source Australian Censuses of 2001
and 2006
10
Population Change in Victorian Local Government
Areas, 2001 to 2006Source ABS 2007
11
Pyrenees (S) LGA, Central Highlands Statistical
Division and VictoriaAverage Annual Growth Rate
of the PopulationSource ABS 2002 and 2007
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Elements of Population Change

• Fertility
• Mortality
• Internal migration
• International migration

13
Australia Total Fertility Rates1 by State and
Location, 2005Source ABS 2006
14
(No Transcript)
15
Australia Net Migration Between ARIA Regions,
1996 to 2001Source Australian Censuses
16
Non-Metropolitan Statistical Divisions
Experiencing Net Migration Gains in
1996-2001Source Unpublished data from
Australian 2001 Population Census
17
Age Profile of Net Migration From
Non-metropolitan Areas To State Capital Cities,
1996-2001 Source Unpublished data from
Australian 2001 Census of Population and Housing
18
Capital City Internal Migration1991-96
19
Australia Capital City Statistical Divisions Age
Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996-2001
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Australia Rest of States Age Sex SpecificNet
Migration Estimates, 1996-2001
21
Australia-Born and Overseas-Born, 2006
(Percent)Source ABS 2006 Census
22
Australia Age-Sex Structure of Capital Cities
andRest of State, 2006Source ABS, 2006 Census
23
Australia, Rest of State Age-Sex Structure of
the Population, 2004 and 2031Source ABS 2005
Projections, Series B
24
Australia Projected Population Growth, 2004-11
(Percent p.a)Source ABS
25
Central Highlands Statistical Division and
VictoriaAge and Sex Distribution of the
Population, 2006Source ABS 2006 Census Time
Series Profile
Age
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Central Highlands Statistical DivisionAge and
Sex Distribution of the Population, 2001 and
2006Source ABS 2006 Census Time Series Profile
Age
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Central Highlands Statistical Division Age and
Sex Distribution of the Population, 2006 and
Projected 2031 Source ABS 2006 Census and
Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2004
Age
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Pyrenees Shire LGAAge and Sex Distribution of
the Population, 2001 and 2006Source ABS 2006
Census Time Series Profile
Age
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Growth of the Population Aged 60, 2001-31

• Victoria 973,244 (17.3 - 29 percent)
• Regional Victoria 345,459 (19.5 35.9 percent)
• Central Highlands 36,292 (18.2 33.7 percent)
• Pyrenees 1,267 (23 44.1 percent)

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Central Highlands
31
Pyrenees ShireChange in Households 1996-2006
(Percent)
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Growth Areas

• Areas adjacent to large cities
• Sea change
• Tree change
• Regional centres
• Some mining and tourism areas

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Declining Areas

• Wheat sheep farming areas
• Small and medium sized country towns
• Some regional industrial and mining areas

34
SLAs Identified as a District of Workforce
Shortage in Regional Victoria, 2005Source
Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics 2006
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Drivers of Internal Migration

• Economic opportunities
• Environment
• Educational opportunities
• Other lifestyle
• Housing related factors
• Health, ageing
• Family related factors

36
Australia Post Internal Migration Study
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Policy Principles

• Cannot fly in the face of social and economic
  processes.
• Need to build on comparative advantages with
  respect to drivers
• To attract workers there must be appropriate jobs
  available
• Much current population growth in
  non-metropolitan is people from other
  non-metropolitan areas.
• It will not be possible to achieve population
  growth in all or perhaps even most
  non-metropolitan areas.
• It will be an uneven in impact.

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Policy Options to Increase or Stabilise Population

• Retention strategies
• Internal migration
• International migration

39
Retention Strategies

• Improving service and utility provision outside
  cities.
• Retaining government services in non-metropolitan
  areas.
• Smart decentralisation of post school education
  possibilities.
• Dormitory functions.

40
Internal Migration Schemes

• Unlikely to attract young single adults unless
  there are post-school education opportunities
• Focus on two groups
• - young families
• - baby boomers
• Baby boomers
• - 28 percent of population
• - highest level of wealth
• Older migrants should not be discouraged

41
State Specific and Regional Migration Schemes

• New Era
• All over the world immigration programs are
  increasing influencing not only which migrants
  are allowed to settle but also where they settle.
• 1996 Working Party on Regional Migration
• Increasing Suite of Schemes
• DIAC Taskforces with NSW, Victoria and SA
  Governments

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Mechanisms

• Bonuses in Points System.
• Allowing employers, state/territory governments,
  relatives to sponsor skilled migrants.
• Providing regional certifying bodies a greater
  role.
• Relaxing some of requirements (e.g. minimum
  salary).

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Number of Immigrants with Visas Granted under the
State Regional Specific Migration Mechanisms and
Their Proportion of the Total Intake 1997-98 to
2005-06Source DIMIA Population Flows
Immigration Aspects, various issues DIMIA
Immigration Update, various issues DIMIA
unpublished data
44
SURVEY OF 457 HOLDERSMigrants Living in Capital
Cities Percent Who Would Accept a Job in a
Regional Area Source Hugo, Khoo and McDonald
2006

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Implications forRegional Migration Policy

• Employment is the key factor
• Greater readiness among NES origins
• Trade occupations more than professionals
• Families more attracted than singles
• Spouse employment crucial
• Schooling for children important
• Regional centres with services, especially
  education, are most attractive

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Retention Issues

• 2001 Census data shows a gravitation of recent
  migrants from regional areas to cities
• Lack of support infrastructure and services
• Lack of social networks
• Need for communities to be more involved

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• Goulburn Valley Building Links Project 2002
• Increased accessibility to services
• Increased sense of belonging
• Improved coordination
• City of Ballarat Migrant Attraction and
  Retention Project
• Attraction strategies
• Retention strategies
• Warrnambool Regional Migrant Relocation Program
• Focus on refugees
• Community consultation and engagement
• Project planning team
• Relocation advisory group
• Toolbox for successful regional settlement

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International Migration Issues

• Recruitment vs Retention
• Proactive Role of Local Communities
• Unskilled vs Skilled Labour
• Role of Humanitarian Migrants
• Role of Overseas Students
• Need for Decentralisation of Immigrant Support
  Services
• Temporary vs Permanent Migrants

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Conclusion

• Population of Regional Australia is just as
  dynamic and diverse as metropolitan populations
• Population policy is not a substitute for a
  regional development policy
• It should facilitate economic, social and
  environmental objectives
• Population processes are amenable to policy
  intervention
• Potential of 2006 census data to identify issues