Stakeholders Update

1
Stakeholders Update

• Regional Air Quality Issues
• April 17, 2003
• Iowa DNR - Air Quality Bureau

2
Welcome Introductions

• Sign in sheet
• Introductions
• Conference line attendees
• Facilities
• Questions anytime

Materials at www.iowacleanair.com/prof/progdev/Reg
ionModel.htm Misc Links Visibility Summary
Report, Trajectory Statistics Summary Report,
Regional Emissions Summary Report, Iowa Modeling
Emissions Inventory Summary Report and April 14
Stakeholders Presentation
3
CENRAP Organizational Update

• Overview
• Membership and officers
• CENRAP staff
• Organizational update
• Recent and planned activity

4
CENRAP Organizational Update

• Policy Oversight Group Members
• EPA Region V
• Joy Wiecks Fond du Lac Reservation
• Brandy Toft Leech Lake Reservation
• David Thornton Minnesota PCA
• Dallas Ross Upper and Lower Sioux
  Communities

Note C Indicates Chair, V- Vice Chair, S -
Secretary/Treasure, a - alternate
5
CENRAP Organizational Update

• Policy Oversight Group Members
• EPA Region VI
• Perry Williams Alabama-Coushatta Tribe of
  Texas
• Keith Michaels Arkansas DEQ
• Jason Merida Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma
• Reta Lintner Delaware Tribe of Indians
• Teri Lanoue Louisiana DEQ

6
CENRAP Organizational Update

• Policy Oversight Group Members
• EPA Region VI (cont.)
• Eddie Terrill Oklahoma DEQ
• Margaret Hoffman Texas CEQ

7
CENRAP Organizational Update

• Policy Oversight Group Members
• EPA Region VII
• Catharine Fitzsimmons Iowa DNR
• Ron Hammerschmidt Kansas DHE
• Leanne Tippett Missouri DNR
• Shelley Kaderly Nebraska DEQ

8
CENRAP Organizational Update

• Policy Oversight Group Members
• EPA Region VII (cont.)
• Dewayne Lyons, Jr. Omaha Tribe of Nebraska
  and Iowa
• Gina Kneib Sac and Fox Nation of Missouri
• Adrienne Ricehill Winnebago Tribe of
  Nebraska

9
CENRAP Organizational Update

• CENRAP Staff
• Larry Byrum Executive Director
• Chuck Layman Assistant Director
• Al Hendler Interim Technical Director
• Jeff Cole Program Specialist
• Kate Graham Secretary
• Mary Davis Accountant
• Paula Belt Office Assistant

10
CENRAP Organizational Update

• Organizational Update
• Recent / Planned Activities
• Policy Oversight Group Meeting
• Emergency POG Conference call
• Next POG conference call
• 4/24/03 900 AM (Central)
• Specific technical projects discussed later

11
CENRAP Organizational Update

• Questions
• or
• Comments?

12
Federal Activities

• 8-hour ozone
• Proposed Implementation Rule
• March 2003
• State Designation Recommendations
• July 2003
• Iowa - Attainment / Unclassifiable
• EPA Modifications to Recommendations
• Fall 2003

13
Federal Activities

• 8-hour ozone
• Final Implementation Rule
• December 2003
• Final Designations
• April 15, 2004
• In accordance with consent decree

14
Federal Activities
8-hour ozone
Nearby anticipated 8-hour ozone non-attainment
areas
Image courtesy of US EPA
15
Federal Activities

• 8-hour ozone
• Related Bureau Activities
• Continued ambient monitoring
• Continued EI enhancements
• Preliminary modeling
• Bi-State MOA
• Regulatory review and discussion
• Next steps will be dictated by the content of the
  proposed implementation rule

16
Federal Activities

• 8-hour Ozone
• Questions
• or
• Comments?

17
Federal Activities

• PM2.5
• Proposed implementation rule
• Late summer 2003
• State designation recommendations
• September 2003
• Iowa - currently monitoring attainment
• Proposed PM2.5 transport rule utility MACT
• December 2003

18
Federal Activities

• PM2.5
• Final PM2.5 implementation rule
• Summer 2004
• EPA designations final utility MACT
• December 2004
• Final PM2.5 transport rule
• March - June 2005
• SIPs due December 2007
• Attain standards - December 2009 - 20014

19
Federal Activities
PM2.5
Nearby anticipated PM2.5 non-attainment areas
Image courtesy of US EPA
20
Federal Activities

• PM2.5
• Related Bureau Activities
• Continued ambient air monitoring and analysis
• Continued EI enhancements
• Preliminary modeling
• Includes regional haze modeling efforts
• Regulatory review and discussion
• Next steps will largely be dictated by the PM2.5
  transport and implementation rules

21
Federal Activities

• PM2.5
• Questions
• or
• Comments?

22
Federal Activities

• Regional Haze
• May 24 DC Circuit Court Decision
• Upheld basic structure of rule
• Remanded committal SIP concept
• Vacated BART
• Source specific reasonably anticipated
  contribution
• State exemption mechanism?
• Source contribution methods?
• Increased requirements for 750 MW EGUs?
• Strengthen reasonable progress?
• Cost element in assessing reasonable progress?

23
Federal Activities

• Regional Haze
• Committal SIP needs questionable
• Court comments
• TEA-21 re-authorization (TEA-3)
• Expect Haze SIPs due in 2007
• Bart controls 2011 - 2013
• Reasonable progress check 2013
• Next SIPs 2016 - 2018

24
Federal Activities

• Regional Haze
• Related Bureau Activities
• Ambient air monitoring and analysis
• Continued EI enhancements
• Preliminary modeling
• Anticipated CENRAP products
• Modeling, mobile EI, ammonia monitoring, data
  analysis
• Regulatory review and discussion
• Next steps will largely be dictated by the PM2.5
  transport and implementation rules

25
Federal Activities

• Regional Haze
• Questions
• or
• Comments?

26
Federal Activities

• Transport Rule (NOx/SOx, PM2.5)
• CAA 110(a)(2)(D)
• All SIPs need to address interstate transport
• The transport rule is an alternative or
  supplement to Clear Skies
• EPA expects the transport rule to help many areas
  attain the 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS

Note Transport rule information is from a
January 31, 2003 EPA presentation provided by
Lydia Wegman, EPA OAQPS
27
Federal Activities

• Transport Rule (NOx/SOx, PM2.5)
• CAA 110(a)(2)(D)
• within 3 years after promulgation of a NAAQS,
  each plan shall contain provisions prohibiting
  emissions activity which will-
• contribute significantly to nonattainment in, or
  interfere with maintenance in any other state.
• Interfere with measures to prevent significant
  deterioration of air quality or to protect
  visibility.

28
Federal Activities

• Transport Rule (NOx/SOx, PM2.5)
• Current EPA plans
• Use Clear Skies modeling to shape rule
• Perform additional modeling to refine rule
• Assess impact on PM2.5 8-hour ozone
• Visibility?
• Acid rain, NOx SIP Call, BART
• Aggressive schedule

29
Federal Activities

• Transport Rule (NOx/SOx, PM2.5)
• What will it do and who will it include?
• Identify areas whose future emissions will
  contribute significantly
• Flexible emissions budgets (states decide who)?
• Cap and trade program?
• Compliance schedule, monitoring, reporting
• Coordinate with utility MACT?

30
Federal Activities

• Transport Rule (NOx/SOx, PM2.5)
• Whos in?
• Eastern U.S.
• 100th meridian?
• CENRAP States and east?
• Mississippi River and east?
• Decision will be based on EPA modeling
• Zero out runs
• Other analyses
• Right now, it is unknown if Iowa is in

31
Federal Activities

• Transport Rule (NOx/SOx, PM2.5)
• Related Bureau Activities
• EI, Monitoring
• Preliminary modeling
• CENRAP
• Regulatory review and discussion
• How to respond to transport rule?
• Will there be enough time?
• Certainty of national program or uncertainty of
  126 petitions for haze, 8-hour ozone, PM2.5...

32
Federal Activities

• Transport Rule
• Questions
• or
• Comments?

33
Reasonable Progress

• Estimating Reasonable Progress Goals at Nearby
  Class I areas

34
Reasonable Progress

• What is reasonable progress?
• Region Haze Goal
• No visibility impairment from manmade sources in
  any mandatory federal class I area by 2064
• Accomplished in 10-year intervals with progress
  checks every 5-years.
• Goal 1 SIP ensuring 17 improvement in class I
  area visibility by 2018 (worst days)

35
Reasonable Progress

• What is reasonable progress?

Current Conditions
100
Too little
90
80
Just right
70
60
50
More than enough
Visibility Glide Path
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
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Reasonable Progress

• What are the reasonable progress goals?
• Current visibility - natural visibility
• ________________________________
• 6
• Visibility is expressed in deciviews
• Each SIP must achieve this change in visibility
  in terms of deciviews
• Determined individually for each mandatory
  federal class I area

37
Reasonable Progress

• What is a deciview?
• One deciview is the minimum visually perceptive
  change in visibility
• DV 10ln(bext/10)
• bext MM-1 (light extinction)
• bext is reconstructed from measured aerosol
  concentrations (IMPROVE)

38
Reasonable Progress

• Calculating reasonable progress
• Current visibility (2000 - 2004 baseline)
• Average of annual average visibility on the 20
  worst days
• Natural background
• Determined by EPA
• Estimates made on incomplete date
• Not 2004
• Less data prior to 2002

39
Reasonable Progress
Analysis focused on nearby mandatory federal
class I areas
40
Reasonable Progress
Estimated current visibility conditions
Indicates sites where 5-years of data were
available
41
Reasonable Progress
Estimated reasonable progress goals
42
Reasonable Progress

• What is 1.49 DV?
• To achieve a 1.49 DV increase in visibility at
  the Boundary Waters, the following average
  ambient pollutant concentration reductions are
  estimated as

43
Reasonable Progress

• Next steps
• Continue refining reasonable progress estimates
  as new data becomes available
• Track discussions on improvement of natural
  background conditions and the application of
  relative humidity correction factors
• Expand analysis to include additional sites?

44
Reasonable Progress

• Reasonable Progress
• Questions
• or
• Comments?

45
Trajectory Analysis

• Incremental Probability Statistics Analysis

46
Trajectory Analysis

• What is trajectory analysis?
• Tracing air parcels back in time to see what
  geographic areas they passed on the way to the
  monitor
• Can separate the back trajectories into best
  days, worst days, sulfate days, elemental carbon
  days, etc...

47
Trajectory Analysis

• What is trajectory analysis?
• The number of times an air parcel passes through
  a given area under certain conditions (best,
  worst, etc.) can be counted and statistical
  measures can be developed to identify geographic
  areas that are more frequently associated with
  those conditions
• This explanation is going to get worse before it
  gets better...

48
Trajectory Analysis

• Incremental probability
• IP
• where
• N is the total number of trajectory endpoints
• M is the total number of case endpoints
• nij is the grid cell specific count for all
  endpoints
• mij is the grid cell specific count for case
  endpoints

49
Trajectory Analysis

• Incremental Probability
• In other words
• Worst day probability minus every day probability
• Excess probability that air passing through that
  grid cell is associated with case conditions
  (poor visibility)
• The surface contours are important, the specific
  values are not

50
Trajectory Analysis

• Limitations and caveats
• This is not a tool for assigning levels of
  culpability
• Results are dependent on many factors
• Number of observations and trajectories used
• Length and type of the trajectories
• Grid resolution
• We use this tool to help scope areas of interest
  for more refined analysis

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Trajectory Analysis
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Trajectory Analysis
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Trajectory Analysis
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Trajectory Analysis
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Trajectory Analysis
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Trajectory Analysis

• Incremental probability
• These statistics were applied to specific
  visibility impairing species for the Boundary
  Waters
• 20 best and worst days
• 20 highest sulfate, nitrate, elemental carbon,
  organic carbon, coarse mass and soil days

57
Trajectory Analysis
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Trajectory Analysis
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Trajectory Analysis
60
Trajectory Analysis
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Trajectory Analysis

• Trajectory Analysis
• Questions
• or
• Comments?

62
Emissions Summary

• Regional Emissions Inventory Comparison Summary

63
Emissions Summary

• Overview and comparison the 1996 NEI
• Readily available
• Version 4 includes all anticipated updates and
  corrections
• Still, it is a 1996 inventory
• Purpose
• See how Iowa emissions compare with neighbors
• See what portions of the Iowa inventory stand out

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Emissions Summary
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Emissions Summary
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Emissions Summary
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Emissions Summary
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Emissions Summary
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Emissions Summary
Area Source Categories (and sub categories)
70
Emissions Summary
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Emissions Summary
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Emissions Summary
Point Source Categories (and sub categories)
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Emissions Summary
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Emissions Summary
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Trajectory Analysis

• EI Comparison
• Questions
• or
• Comments?

76
Current / Planned Activities

• Normal Bureau Activities
• CENRAP
• EI improvements
• Ammonia monitoring project
• Modeling tools and preliminary runs
• Data analysis - Causes of Haze
• LADCo
• Modeling project

77
Current / Planned Activities

• Previous LADCo Modeling Project

SO4 Results
NO3 Results
78
Current / Planned Activities

• LADCo Modeling Project
• Extensive set of sensitivity runs
• Model response to global anthropogenic
  emissions changes
• 30 NOx reduction, 30 VOC reduction, 30 SO2
  reduction, more, less, combinations of all
• Geographic based runs
• What is it going to take?
• Evaluating haze, ozone, PM2.5

79
Current / Planned Activities

• LADCo Modeling Project
• Significant improvements in models
• Using CAMx4 with updated chemistry
• Reduced nitrate over-prediction
• Generally working well
• Project timeframe Current - June
• Results will likely be available in June - July
• Will have more information on model performance,
  and a better understanding of what it might take
  for haze, PM2.5 and ozone

80
Open Discussion

• Questions?
• Suggestions?
• Thoughts on progress?
• Additional analyses that would be helpful?