LINKING

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LINKING EUROPEAN,
NATIONAL CITY SCALES UK National Focal Centre
for Integrated Assessment Modelling Helen ApSimon
and Tim Oxley, Imperial College in collaboration
with CEH, NETCEN and ENTEC

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Since Gothenburg/NECD many improvements e.g.
EMEP model-gt 50x50 km Eulerian -gt
country-to- grid source receptor matrices NB
ceilings do not dictate how or where countries
change emissions- ASAM/RAINS assume uniform
scaling in each Ecosystem dependent deposition
finer grid -gt estimated exceedence of CLs
increased Linking of European to global
scale/climate questions
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Large reductions SOx and NOx -gt greater relative
importance of NH3 Now include particles- both
primary and secondary NB both NHx deposition and
PM concentrations are due to a mixture of local
and transboundary sources ? targeted
action within a country -gt greater improvements
than uniform scaling ? for binding
squares local action in the home country may
reduce effort required by other countries
? capability for more detailed study of
sub-areas/countries ??? additional
measures at local scale
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European scale ASAM
Common Framework List of sources
cost-curves List of receptors e.g. ecosystems,
people, crops source-gt receptor
matrices Criteria for protection each receptor
e.g. AQ limit values, Critical loads Scenario
analysis or optimisation- stepwise approach
converging to targets.
Urban scale/air quality USIAM (individual
streets)
National scale UKIAM
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EMBEDDING SUB-GRID
Imported from Europe EMEP S-R matrices ASAM
tool
UK sources S-R matrices from FRAME and PPM
Shipping EMEP model ASAM tool
Hot-spots /roads ADMS
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SOURCES EMISSION EXPOSURE
EFFECTS/RECEPTORS
Surface waters
Energy
Sulphur dioxide
Sulphur deposition
Acidification
Terrestial ecosystems
Nitrogen deposition
Eutrophication
Ammonia
Marine ecosystems
Agriculture
NH4 concn
Human health
SO2,SO4 air concns
Industry
Nitrogen oxides
Materials
NO2,NO3 air concns
Domestic
Crops
Yield losses
Traffic
Ozone
VOCs
Forests
Air quality Criteria
Particles

Primary sources
PM10/2.5
UKIAM
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EMEP model inter- comparison study with smaller
scale models Need to be consistent- e.g.
imported/exported fluxes
SOx dep
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Based on CL data for UK from CEH Monkswood
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For N deposition spatially targeted measures for
NH3 can bring much greater improvement than
uniform scaling across the country.
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NARSES project- geographical analysis (10 km
grid) Different types of farming, local
conditions-gt applicability of measures. Interactio
n with other problems- nitrate leaching (NVZs),
N2O Generation of cost curves for localised areas
for UKIAM
At even smaller (field) scale other factors such
as controlled zones or buffer strips between
intense emissions and sensitive ecosystems could
make a big difference
NH3 Cost Curve for Lancashire MARACCAS model of
NARSES project
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0.1 1.0
10 100
1000 distance km
NB EMEP assume 5 of S is emitted as SO4-
equivalent to 650kt in EUNMS compared with 2297
kt of primary PM10
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PPM
2nd A
2nd B
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UKIAM -gtmaximise reduction in population exposure
at least cost
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Reduction in population exposure v cost
m
Pop exp reducn g/m3
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In this example cost-curves were disaggregated to
different sectors. Because of different
geographical distributions and dispersion
characteristics the relative contribution of
different sectors to population exposure is not
the same as the relative emissions. That is the
reduction in population exposure per ton reduced
is different for different sectors. The effect
this has on selection of abatement measures can
be investigated.
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Future developments

• Further work on modelling and linking models
  modelling of PM
• Extension to PM2.5
• Link to AQ legislation (and ? NO2)
• Work on NH3 linked to NARSES
• Scenario analysis e.g. linked to RAINS
  scenarios

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Conclusions More detailed studies of embedded
regions/national scale can supplement
RAINS/European modelling by i) exploring
problems where both local and transboundary
sources contribute and ii) investigating
interaction between compliance with emission
ceilings and other issues e.g. local air quality