Socioeconomic impact of the epidemic

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Socio-economic impact of the epidemic
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PNG population in 2025 with and without
AIDS-Baseline scenario
Note The pale bars indicate the projected
population size without AIDS. The dark bars show
that, with AIDS, all age groups show some decline
in size. However, the percentage decrease is most
noticeable in the age groups 20-49.
Age
(thousand)
Source AusAID. Impacts of HIV/AIDS 2005-2025 in
Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and East Timor
Final report of HIV epidemiological modeling and
impact study. February 2006
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in reductions in annual GDP per capita based on
projections of HIV prevalence baseline scenario
Note Under the baseline scenario, HIV will
potentially cause a reduction in annual GDP
growth reaching 1.3 per cent in 2025. Many
complex factors will play a role in a largely
subsistence economy like PNG.
Source AusAID. Impacts of HIV/AIDS 2005-2025 in
Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and East Timor
Final report of HIV epidemiological modeling and
impact study. February 2006
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Reduction in the size of the workforce in Papua
New Guinea, 2010-2025
Note Assumes 8.6 year time lag between infection
and death.
Source AusAID. Impacts of HIV/AIDS 2005-2025 in
Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and East Timor
Final report of HIV epidemiological modeling and
impact study. February 2006
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Saving on OI and ART costs and lost productivity,
and additional prevention expenditure, 2005
OI Opportunistic infections ART antiretroviral
therapy

Note The figure illustrates the potential
savings in lost productivity, treatment and ART
costs between the baseline and high response and
the potential additional costs required for the
prevention budget to achieve those savings.
Source AusAID. Impacts of HIV/AIDS 2005-2025 in
Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and East Timor
Final report of HIV epidemiological modeling and
impact study. February 2006
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Resource available and resource needs for
HIV/AIDS programmes from Government, PNG,
2007-2008
Gap 51million
Source National AIDS Council Secretariat, Papua
New Guinea. UNGASS Monitoring the declaration of
commitment on HIV/AIDS, January 2004-December
2005. 2006
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• THANK YOU
• slides compiled by www.aidsdatahub.org
• Data shown in this slide set are comprehensive
  to the extent they are available from country
  reports. Please inform us if you know of sources
  where more recent data can be used.
• Please acknowledge www.aidsdatahub.org if slides
  are lifted directly from this site
  

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