Carpe Technology

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Carpe Technology!

• André V. Mendes
• Chief Technology Integration Officer
• PBS Technology, Distribution Operations

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Warnings Caveats

• This presentation reflects my opinions
• Things happen whether we like them or not
• Content
• Focus on concepts rather than buzzwords
• Relationships are not always apparent
• We will go fast, screen is busy
• Caveat emptor

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A couple of questionsand answers!

• What is technology?
• Technology is whatever did not exist when we were
  growing up!
• What is bandwidth?
• Bandwidth is the capacity of a pathway to
  simultaneously carry a certain measure of
  information
• Straw vs. hose vs. fire hydrant vs. water main
• Dirt path vs. one lane road vs. 2-lane highway
  vs. 4-lane super highway

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A great thinker once said

• Nothing stays the same, and, if you dont want
  to grow, you will soon be passed by those who do!
  If we dont keep the future alive with realistic
  planning, then the alternative looks awfully
  grim
• Herodotus, 424 BC

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From the beginning of time

• We have evidence of a constant acceleration in
  the appearance and evolution of complex systems.
• First in the biological realm
• Primitive cells evolved in billions of years
• DNA digital recording of evolution
• Higher level organisms, tens of millions of years
  
• Humanoids, millions of years
• Homo Sapiens, hundreds of thousands
• Establishing a clear pattern of exponential
  growth
• Technology creating species meant a shift away
  from DNA (protein synthesis) based evolution!

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Continuing at vertiginous speed

• With man made technology
• Sharp edges, fire, wheel tens of thousands
• By 1000 AD big changes took 2 centuries
• 19th century more growth than the previous 18
• First 20 years of the 20th century eclipsed 19th
• WWW is 10 years old!
• 21st Century expect 200 centuries of progress!
• Expectation of linear growth
• Double exponential growth

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It is only going to get faster

• Substantially faster!
• Some examples from 1993
• Took Intel 3 years from a 25 to a 50 MHz chip
• We could pack 150 calls in one fiber strand
• 10 Megabyte drive cost 250
• Today and in 2005
• 25 MHz every 15 days, by 2005 every day
• 180 Million calls and by 2005 720 Million
• 250 300 Gigabytes by 2005 1.5 Terabytes
• And completely ubiquitous!!

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A few examples

• RFIDS
• Tiny chips with RF transmission capability
• Tracking, loss prevention, JIT inventory at
  shelves
• Few cents, Gillette bought 500 Million
• Wireless equipped microprocessors
• Internet access from everywhere for everything
• Wi-FI, Mesh Networking
• Cometa Networks (20K) IBM, Intel, ATT
• 802.11n

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Yet despite all this progress

• Distinct patterns of growth, behavior, reaction,
  and counter reaction continue to emerge.
• They have been repeated throughout the ages,
  starting with the lowest of life forms and
  continuing today with the most complex
  technological advances
• Lets compare
• 1 The common cold
• 2 The common PC Virus

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The common cold

• Initial exposure to pathogenic vector
• Marshalling of host resources
• Furious viral DNA replication
• Immune system detection
• Antibody production
• Immune system reaction
• Infection is defeated (most times)
• Mutation occurs
• Cycle begins anew

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The common computer virus

• Initial exposure to viral code (diskette,
  e-mail?)
• Marshalling of host resources
• Furious offending code replication
• Detected by System Administrator
• Upgrade Virus software
• Virus clean-up
• Virus is eradicated (most times)
• Viral code is modified
• Cycle begins anew

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Why such similarities?
All technological evolution processes share
similar characteristics!
Hysteria
Reality
Enthusiasm
Performance
Disillusionment
Initial idea
Maturation
Adaptation
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It happens with everything

• From..
• Bacterial and viral infections
• Antibiotics
• Internet
• Relationships, employees employers
• Presents opportunities dangers
• Buying into the hype, pyramid scheme
• Ignoring or overreacting to the dip
• Ignoring the maturity phase

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Why does it happen with technology?
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We anoint and believe experts!

• "Unlike with other famous bubbles ... the
  Internet bubble is riding on rock-solid
  fundamentals, perhaps stronger than any the
  market has seen before. Underlying the crazy
  price increases are the foundations of what could
  become the early 21st century's leading growth
  companies.... Just because the Internet stock
  phenomenon looks like a bubble, it isn't a given
  that the bubble will burst.
• Henry Blodget, Leading Internet Analyst,
  Oppenheimer Funds 3/5/2000
• March 10th, 2000 Nasdaq at 5,048

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We overestimate the short term

• We overestimate the impact of new technologies
  over a 2 year time span
• Web retail expectations
• Broadband penetration
• WAP/Wireless adoption
• Because
• Ignore implementation details
• Sellers need to sell!
• Buyers need to buy!
• Dopeler effect

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We underestimate long term

• We tend to substantially underestimate the impact
  of technology changes over long haul (10 years)
• Personal computer, Internet
• Biotechnology, Nanotechnology
• Pervasive computing and bandwidth
• Because
• We look at progress on a linear scale
• We evolved from yeast (not that smart)

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We forget that If it can happen It will!

• Is it physically possible ?
• Does it fulfill a basic human need/want?
• Is there money to be made from it?
• It will happen.
• It will take over 100 years before we decode the
  entire human genome Bottstein, MIT 1975
• It will take us another 3 or 4 decades before we
  finish the whole thing Ridley, CIT MIT 1992
• Done J. CraigVenter, Celera Genomics Francis
  Collins, Human Genome Project June 2000

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Now then Whats next?

• We are reaching a critical stage in a variety of
  scientific and technological disciplines
• As knowledge in each area deepens, we are coming
  to the realization that they are deeply
  intertwined at the most elemental levels
• From physical sciences to life sciences
• From computer sciences to anthropology
• From political studies to economics
• We increasingly leverage and cross pollinate
  across disciplines in order to further accelerate
  the process

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The Confluence of Disciplines
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The other confluence..

• Computer systems will continue to evolve into
  complex, organism and societal like, systems
• Redundant physiological pathways
• Self healing operating systems (DNA)
• Real time complex pattern recognition
• Voice, images, faces, usage patterns
• Immune system like responses
• Security, fraud detection, self education
• Displaying behaviors like
• Inheritance and evolution,
• Real time reactions to maintain homeostasis or
  increase functionality
• And eventually.think!

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How soon?

• 2005 Blue Gene (1 billion megaflops)
• 1/20th capacity of human brain
• 100B neurons X 1000 connections X 200 calcs/sec
• 2010 - Supercomputer Human brain
• 2020 - 1000 PC Human brain
• 2050 - 1000 Brain power of the entire
  population
• Ray Kurzweil The law of accelerating returns

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As terrifying as that can be

• Was Bill Joy right ?
• Kurzweils prediction (1,000 by 2020)
• 30 50 chance of extinction
• Probably not!
• The paradox of the visionary
• Watts Wacker and Jim Taylor, 2001
• The more accurate a vision is and the more it
  destabilizes the present, the less likely it is
  to come true

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Meanwhilehumans not sitting still

• Mankind will continue to achieve mastery and
  control of its own evolutionary mechanisms
• Return to DNA based evolution
• Through
• Genetic correction/optimization
• Smart drugs(cortical speed, improved memory)
• Nanotechnology implantation
• Wet interfaces
• Mankind will assimilate functionality that we
  associate with sophisticated computer systems
• Functionality add-ons
• Processing, storage, knowledge
• Backup and restore

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Some of it happening today..

• Through external attachments
• PDAs, Cell phones
• Cochlear implants
• Inner ear electronic implants
• Electrical connections to nervous system
• Temporary silicon retinal implants
• Mouse controlled by brain implanted electrodes.
• Intelligent prosthetics.
• And even artificial vision for the blind.
• Will we live to see it?

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Artificial vision
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Artificial vision
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Will it happen ?

• Is it physically possible ?
• Does it fulfill a basic human need/want?
• Is there money to be made from it?
• It will happen. faster faster
• The human race will rapidly evolve in the near
  future. It may not be in accord with democratic
  and egalitarian principles, but then again
  Darwinian evolution has never been politically
  correct Stephen Hawking Ph.D.

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Wow! Pretty interesting but

• How does this affect Public Broadcasting?
• What can we do to assure that we continue to
  fulfill our mission?
• How can we assure relevancy and survival?
• I do not believe that you can do todays job
  with yesterdays methods and be in business
  tomorrow Nelson Jackson

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A trip back to April, 2000

• Old Economy
• Over 6,000 planes
• 300,000 employees
• Worldwide impact
• Brand recognition
• Billions in hard assets
• Market valuation ?
• 14 billion

• New E-conomy
• 0 airplanes
• 200 employees
• Brand recognition
• Regional impact
• 10 Million in Servers (9 M in last 3 months)
• Market valuation ?
• 14.4 billion

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Where do they stand today?

• New E-conomy
• 0 airplanes
• Market valuation ?
• 380 million

• Today
• USAirways just emerged from Ch. 11
• UAL looks ready to enter receivership
• AMR is staving it off?
• CO also struggling
• Market valuation ?
• 1.1 billion

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Meanwhile

• Only two major airlines made money in 2002!
• Southwest Airlines
• 11.3 billion market cap
• 241 million profit in 2002
• JetBlue Airlines
• 1.8 billion market cap
• 51 million profit in 2002

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Why is Southwest so successful?

• Operational efficiencies
• Southwest uses 1 type of airplane (737)
• Lower training, maintenance, parts depot costs
• Faster equipment replacements
• Turn around times
• Flight attendants clean the airplane
• Operational simplicity
• Boarding is performed by flight attendants
• Seat anywhere
• 1 class of service
• Frequent flyer program simplicity
• Total employee participation and buy-in
• Emphasis on end-to-end supply chain management

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Today, SCM is an imperative!

• Mitsubishi produces 60 cars per hour in a mostly
  automated JIT factory
• Tires come straight from loading dock to line
• Chrysler slashed time to market
• Concept to showroom from 7 years to 3
• All development is virtual
• Goal is 18 months by 2005
• Most supplies for Iraq war were electronically
  tagged from factory to battlefield

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We must assume that

• Processing, storage and distribution technology
  will continue to exhibit massive improvement in
  price performance ratios
• Because of fast system turnover, capital
  requirements will be massive and project
  amortizable lifespan will be shorter
• Modularity and interoperability will be essential
  and will require standardization
• Limiting factors will be capital, human
  resources, technical skills and training

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So it follows that we must

• Follow sound investment principles
• Leverage economies of scale
• Optimize the PB supply chain
• Follow established best practices
• Learn from industries whose deployment of
  technology is ahead of PB
• Stop thinking Station, start thinking system
• Avoid the slow boiling frog scenario

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Content is king..

• But as the amount of content grows, the latency
  shrinks and the number and complexity of delivery
  channels increases rapidly, the creation,
  deployment, maintenance and effective use of a
  streamlined distribution system can spell the
  difference between a valuable cultural
  contribution and relegation to niche player
  status.
• 40,000 books in Alexandria, Egypt
• Gutenbergs press role in the renaissance
• Mendels Experiments with plant hybrids

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Questions?

• NOW !
• At any other time you can reach me by
• Phone [phone] or
• e-mail amendes_at_pbs.org