MODERN TRENDS

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• MODERN TRENDS
• AND THE PROCESS OF RESEARCHING CONGRESS
• A snapshot view of Congress
• Public opinion results
• Interpreting information on modern trends
• The Political Science Study of Legislatures
• Theoretical and quantitative analyses

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PUBLIC OPINION PSCI 3041 student poll, Aug 2
9, 2006 N69 students Which of the following
best describes your political leanings?
Democrat Independent Republic
an Class poll 41 29 28
3
Do you approve or d
isapprove of the way Congress is handling its
job? (CBS News/New York Times Poll, Aug 17-21, 20
06 N1,206 adults nationwide)
Approv
e Disapprove Random poll 29 60
Class poll 37 63
4
How do you rate the job Republicans in Congress
are doing? (Harris Poll, June 2-5, 2006 N1,001
adults nationwide)
Excellent/ Only fair/
pretty good
poor Random poll 25 72 C
lass poll 23 77

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How do you rate the job Democrats in Congress are
doing? (Harris Poll, June 2-5, 2006 N1,001 adul
ts nationwide)
Excellent/ Only fair/
pretty good
poor Random poll 26 70 Cla
ss poll 18 81

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In deciding your vote for Congress this year,
which ONE of the following issues is most
important to you? (Harris Poll, Aug 10-11, 2006
N901 adults nationwide) Random poll
Class poll The situation in Iraq 22 30 The
economy 18 36 Terrorism 15 9 Healt
h care 14 1 Gas and oil prices 12 4
Immigration 9 6Local issues in you
r area 5 4 Other 2 9
7
Do you favor or oppose limiting the number of
terms members of the U.S. Senate and House of
Representatives, including your own senators and
representatives, can serve? (Fox News/Opinion Dyn
amics Poll, June 14-15, 2005 N900 registered
voters nationwide)
Favor Oppose
Random poll 68 21 Class poll
59 41
8
Would you say the country is better off because
of George Bushs policies and should proceed in
the direction he set out, or do you think the
country is not better off and needs to move in a
new direction? (Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll,
June 24-27, 2006 N1,321 adults nationwide)
Better off, proceed Not better
off, in Bushs direction need new dire
ction Random poll 29 61 Class poll 17 75

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Do you think George W. Bushs political views are
too conservative, about right, or too liberal?
(USA Today/Gallup Poll, April 28-30, 2006
N1,011 adults nationwide)
Too About
Too conservative right Too lib
eral Random poll 45 28 19 Class poll
67 25 3
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• Current Trends
• and the American Congress
• What does this information mean?
• Ask more questions
• Question the conclusions
• Sorting out the trends

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• Be sure to ask more questions of the readings!
• Example
• Gender representation in the U.S.
• Congress

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• It is absolutely true There are more women in
  the U.S. Congress than ever before
  
• U.S. House U.S. Senate
• 1975 18 (4) 0 (0)
• (94th Congress)
• 1985 22 (5) 2 (2)
• (99th Congress)
• 1995 49 (11) 8 (8)
• (104th Congress)
• 2005 68 (16) 14 (14)
• (109th Congress)

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• Hidden questions behind this fact?

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• Questions about gender and politics might
  include
  
• What effect (if any) does this characteristic or
  variable have on public policy?
  
• How does this variable compare with other
  legislatures?

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• Women in National Parliaments
• Percent of Membership in Single House or Lower
  House
  
• (Inter-Parliamentary Union, July 2006)
• World average 16.8
• National rank
• 1 Rwanda 48.8 50 Bahamas 20.0
• 2 Sweden 45.3 60 Mauritius 17.1
• 3 Costa Rica 38.6 65 Czech Rep
  15.5
  
• 4 Norway 37.9 66 Cape Verde 15.3
• 5 Finland 37.5 67 United States 15.2
• 20 Seychelles 29.4 68 Angola 15.0
• 30 Laos 25.2 Chile 15.0
• 40 Rep of Moldova 21.8 69 Bangladesh
  14.8

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• Question the conclusions!
• Example
• The textbook asserts No other national
  legislature has greater power than the Congress
  of the United States.
  
• (Smith, et. al, p. 1)
• Is this true?

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Important Trends in American Politics
1. Split partisan control of the institutions o
f national government.
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• Important Trends in American Politics
• Split partisan control of the institutions
• of national government.
• Growing polarization of the politically
• active in Democratic versus Republican
• circles.

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• Important Trends in American Politics
• Split partisan control of the institutions of
  national government.
  
• Growing polarization of the politically active in
  Democratic versus Republican circles.
  
• Disappearance of the great regional exception,
  the transformation of the previously Solid
  South.

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Doing Political Science (Social Science in
general)

• The aim of science knowledge
• The aim of political science knowledge of the
  political world
  

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Scientific versus Nonscientific Questions

• What makes political science scientific?
• The nature of the questions asked.
• Science requires that all research questions be
  subjected to verifiable observations.
  

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• Quantitative Analysis of Congress
• The Elements of Scientific Strategy
• Concepts precise naming of phenomena to be
  observed.
  

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• Quantitative Analysis of Congress
• The Elements of Scientific Strategy
• 2. Variables A variable is a name for
  something that is thought to influence (or to be
  influenced by) a particular state of being of
  something else. What affected this particular
  result?

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• Quantitative Analysis of Congress
• The Elements of Scientific Strategy
• 3. Hypotheses A hypothesis proposes a
  relationship between two or more variables that
  can be tested.

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• Quantitative Analysis of Congress
• The Elements of Scientific Strategy
• 4. Measurements Objectively and methodically
  testing, recording and publishing results such
  that the experiment can be duplicated.
  

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• Quantitative Analysis of Congress
• The Elements of Scientific Strategy
• 5. Theory Identifying patterns for the
  interpretation of data and examination of the
  larger meaning of experimental findings.

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• Quantitative Analysis of Congress
• The Elements of Scientific Strategy
• Concepts
• Variables
• Hypotheses
• Measurements
• Theory