SUDARI PAWIRO

1
GLOBAL FISHERY TRADE
AND SOLOMON ISLANDS
SUDARI PAWIRO
INFOFISH
National Workshop on Strengthening National
Capabilities in Seafood Trade Policy, Including
Risk Assessment and traceability-TCP/RAS/3011
Honiara, Solomon Islands 22 24 November, 2006
2
Major trends (1994-2004)
Food Fish Supply (mil Tons) Growth4.0/yr, Est.1
10 mil tons
Growth 2.9/yr, 155.9 million MT
Global Trade (in Billion US) Exports growth 5.0
/yr US71.7 billion Imports growth 4.6/yr US7
6.3 billion
Per capita fish consumption 11.8 Kg in 1981 to 1
6.6 Kg in 2004
3
Product growths

• MAJOR IMPORTED PRODUCTS
• Average growth (value, )
• Fresh/frozen fish 60.7
• Canned fish 58
• Canned crust/mollcs 83
• Fresh/frozen crustc/mollcs 25.6

Export value in 2004 (US71.7 bil)
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SI SEAFOOD EXPORTS (2004)
Total tuna exports27 494 tons
Total exports US 25.9 million
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Focus of the presentation

• Tuna
• Other products Seaweeds, coral reef fish
• Markets USA, Japan, and Asia

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US MARKET
USAPer capita fish consumption
(in lbs/caput/year)
TOP 10 PRODUCTS CONSUMED 16.6 Lbs in 2004

• Products Lbs/caput/yr
• Shrimp 4.2
• Tuna 3.3
• Salmon 2.2
• Alsk pollock 1.3
• Catfish 1.1
• Tilapia 0.7
• Crabs 0.6
• Cod 0.6
• Clams 0.5
• Flatfish 0.3

Increase by 12 since 2001
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USA Growth factors

• Population growth
• Demographics changes More percentage of older
  population eat more fish increase number of
  Hispanic population eat 24 more fish (38
  million)
• Health consciousness
• Economy
• US consumers spending on seafood in 2005 Food
  service US42.8 billion Retail US 18.8 billion
  

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CONSUMPTION THROUGH RESTAURANTS

• Most favourite menus
• Shrimp
• Crab
• Tuna
• Lobster
• Clams
• Scallops
• Oyster

Source IntraFish,May2006
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US Market

• Retailing (US18.8 billion)
• Increasing self service seafood dept
• Increase demand for pre-packed and case ready to
  eat products
  
• Opportunity for organic seafood
• Consumers buying decision
• - Want fresh, healthful and convenient products
• - Survey results quality (62) Price (19)
  Country of origin (2)
  

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Growing imports supply 88 of seafood consumed

• Grew by 4.2/yr
• Imported 2.32 mil tons of seafood (US 12.16 bil
  in 2005)
  
• High growth Shrimp US 3.6 billion Tilapia
  US7.4 million, in 2005
  
• Canned tuna stagnant
• Increasing imports of fresh/chilled and frozen
  tuna
  

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US TUNA MARKET
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FACTORS FOR THE DECLINES

• Declining demand for canned tuna 55.7 million in
  1999 to 45.8 million cases in 2005 (48x1/2s)
  
• Reasons
• mercury related issues
• less promotional activities
• strong competition from other animal protein
  products
  
• higher cots/prices.
• reduction of shelf space in retail sector

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Japan

• Declining consumption trends
• Factors
• Economy
• Decline in birth rate
• Changing preference among younger generation
• Changing lifestyle (less cooking at home)
• Positive trends increased demand for prepared
  food and eating out
  

Per capita apparent fish con- sumption (Kg/year)
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Household expenditures for fresh fish
In Kg
In Yen1000

• Declined both in Qty and value (
• Less cooking and less no. of family
• Demand for HMR increasing
• Increasing dine-out sushi chain restaurants
• Increasing popularity of supermarkets (for
  convenience products) 70 share of fresh fish
  sold through retail from only 50 in 1998
  

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Imports of seafood into Japan
Value
QTY

• In downward trends
• Dropped by 5.7 in value for the period
• Imports Jan/Sept 06 -7.4 in quanity 0.8 in
  value
  
• Especially for raw/block frozen products
• Increase imports in value added products
• Lead buyers chain stores, large supermarkets and
  convenience stores
  

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TUNA MARKETS

• Market size around
• 850-870 000 tons, worth US3.4-3.5 billion
• Sashimi market 52,
• Katsuobushi market 24
• Canned tuna market 14
• Consumption Trends decline for sashimi and
  stagnant for others.
  

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Japan Trend in Sashimi tuna consumption
Source Fisheries Agency, Japan/Katzuo
Shima,Tuna2006
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FRESH/FROZEN TUNA IMPORTS
Fresh/chilled (MT)
Frozen (MT)

• Imports declined both fresh and frozen tuna
• Imports up to Sept 2006
• 245 526 tons (-15.6)
• Yen 170.2 billion (2.6)
• Prices increase (for BF and BEY)
• Indonesia the no.1 fresh tuna supplier Taiwan is
  the main supplier for frozen
  
• Sharp drop in YF and BE supplies
• Increasingly imports for fillets/loins

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GROWING IMPORTS FOR TUNA LOINS/FILLETS

• Mainly in frozen fillet form
• Bluefin tuna 40 in volume others 60
• Driven by increasing sales through supermarkets
• Government to reverse the trendcampaign

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

• Markets vary greatly between regions
• Southern Europe, Mediterranean countries have
  high seafood consumption
  
• Northern Europe lower consumption, preferred
  cold water species
  
• Eastern Europe low consumption, fast growing
  markets
  
• Increasing imports for tropical species
• Top 5 importers (in US billion) Spain (5.24)
  France (4.22)Italy (3.92)UK (2.84)Germany
  (2.83), in 2004

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THE EU TUNA MARKET
Per capita tuna consumption (Kg/yr)
Market size of canned tuna (1000 tons)
Total EU690 000 tons
Source A Valsecchi,Tuna 2006
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EU IMPORTS OF CANNED TUNA
1000 mt
By Origins in 2005
Source A.Valsecchi,Tuna 2006
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TRENDS FOR CANNED TUNA

• Growing demand for all product types
• Sales growth (2005/2006) UK 7Spain 12France
  1.6Germany 3Holland 5
  
• Expansion in the Eastern European countries
• Preference variation between southern and
  northern Europe species, medium, consumption
  pattern
  
• Growing value added products and packaging styles.

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TUNA LOINS MARKET
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TUNA LOINS IMPORTS 2005
Total imports 78 000 tons Imports mainly from
Latin America under GSP regime 71 in Q Auton
omous tariff quota 4,000 t

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EU Imports of pre-cooked tuna loins 2004- 2005
(in MT)
Source Henk Brus,Tuna 2006
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The EU market for fresh/chilled tuna
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MAJOR CHANGES
ASIAN MARKETSE AND FAR EAST MARKETS

• Take place mainly in retail sector
• More varieties of fish displayed
• Locally produced and imported products

• Different product forms
• Innovative presentations
• Better quality

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• growing popularity of western food styles
• More affordable/cheaper products
• Wider usage in fast food restaurants

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High fish consumption 36.6 Kg/caput/year
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TRADE TRENDS
Produced 79.2 mil tons (60 of global
production) Cultured 46.1 mil tons
(84)Exported US17.7 billion (28)Imported
US21.7 billion (32)
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CHINA
Imports of fishery products
Growth rate 24.5/year in value 9.0/year in
quantity
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CHINAIMPORTED PRODUCTS MAINLY FOR LOCAL
CONSUMPTIONS IN 2005
Cuttlefish/squid 180 283 MT Frozen ribbonfi
sh 107 473 MT Frozen mackerel 98 552 MT
Other frozen fish 249 627 MT Frozen
salmon 129 108 MT Frozen shrimp 57 086
MT
Exports from Pacific Island Countries Dried
products, Shark fins, beche de mer
coral live fish, lobsters
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Asia Growing tuna market

• Increase consumers income
• Improved distribution channels
• Trade barriers in developed markets
• Wider usage of tuna at home and in the catering
  sector
  
• Increasing popularity of Japanese foods (sushi)
  and western food (sandwiches)
  
• Convenience and health consciousness

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Utilizations
SEAWEEDS
5.5-6.0 mil tons Consumed as food
1.2-1.5 mil tons Extracted as hydrocolloids
8.65 mil Tons produced
For other purposes e.g fertilizer
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Edible Seaweeds

• Nori, hizikia, wakame,kombu traded mainly in Far
  East markets (Japan, China, S. Korea)
  
• Japan consumes more than 200 000 tons/year of
  edible seaweeds and about 40 imported
  
• China and S. Korea are the main suppliers
• Stagnant market, tend to be oversupply
• Possible expansion to SE and North America
  markets
  

nori
wakame
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• Hydrocolloids
• Agar, carrageenan and alginate
• Agar 90 used in food industry
• The main markets for agarUS, SE Asia, Japan
• Market stable and no major growth

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• Carrageenan
• Global market size 37 500 tons
• Main market the USA, Europe and also Asia
• Suppliers Philippines, Indonesia
• Philippines exported 10 108 tons in 2003
• USA imported 9658 tons in 2005
• Growing demand for SRC
• Growing demand from diary and meat industries
• Alginate
• Market size 30 000 tons
• slower growth rate
• Strong presence from China (Laminaria)

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FINFISH

• Popular species Grouper, snapper, Asian Seabass,
  milkfish etc
  
• Generally to cater live food fish market
• Main markets Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Malaysia,
  Singapore and also Thailand
  

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Grouper

• Live grouper is almost exclusively for live food
  fish market (mainly catering sector)
  
• Hong Kong as the main market and distribution
  centre to China market
  
• Estimated to import around 10000-15 000 tons
  annually
  
• Yantian port near shenzen is the main entry into
  China

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Asian Seabass

• Mainly consumed locally
• Active trade among ASEAN countries
• Farmed seabass is sold both live and
  fresh/chilled
  
• Strong competition from tilapia,nile perch and
  catfish (tra/basa) and cheaper wild seabass
  
• Australia tries to penetrate the US and Europe
  markets
  

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PROSPECTProjected fish demand
SourceS.Vanuccini, FAO/Tuna2006
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CONSUMERSDEMAND TRENDS

• Growing demand for ethnic foods e.g Japanese
  (sushi), Hispanic, Indian, Asian foods
  
• US Ethnic food market US 75 billion/yr sold
  through food service (65) and retail (35)
  
• Growing demand for organic foods USA (US 12
  billion) Europe (US19 billion)
  
• Organic seafood BT and Vannamei shrimp, basa,
  carp, mussel, tilapia, trout, salmon etc.

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CONSUMERSTRENDS

• Growing health consciousness, fish as healthy
  food Omega-3 and obesity problem in Europe, US
  and Asia
  
• Growing demand for green products Eco-labelling,
  MSC label, supermarkets factor
  
• Report MSC label sale more than US 155 million
  this year.

Juicy fish oil
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DEMAND TRENDS

• Growing demand for convenience food products
• - Quick to prepare
• Nutritious
• Tasty
• Encourage consumers to involve in at least 1 step
  (dinner kits)
  
• Challenge for ready meals
• Back to basic value
• In UK some people are tired of ready food products

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No fish on plate by 2050?

• A RECENT STUDY-doomsday scenario
• Commercial Wild Fisheries will collapse within 50
  yrs (by 2050)
  
• Collapse90 depletion of the species baseline
  abundance
  
• If we continue to manage and exploit the
  resources at the current global trends
  
• FAO, fisheries official and industry have
  responded that such scenario is highly unlikely
  to happen
  
• Agree that international cooperation on fisheries
  management is needed and to be strengthened to
  end illegal fishing.
  

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CONCLUSION

• Growing international and regional markets
• Growing intra trade within the region
• More liberalized markets
• Increasing safety environment issues
• Modern retail sector plays major role
• Tuna market will grow faster in Europe and in the
  region
  
• Farmed marine finfish still depend on live
  market
  
• Supermarket chains Vs Traditional outlets
• Growing market for green, organic, ethnic and
  convenience products
  
• Aquaculture plays more important role