Public Attitudes in Iraq Four Year Anniversary of Invasion

1




Public Attitudes in Iraq Four Year Anniversary
of Invasion




March 2007
34 Bedford Row, London WC1R 4JH ? Tel 020
7611 5270 ? Fax [phone] ?
www.opinion.co.uk
2
Research Methodology

• Multi-stage probability sample was drawn using
  residential listings from the 1997 census.
  
• Face-to-face interviews carried out in-home.
• A total of 5,019interviews with fieldwork
  conducted 10th 22nd February

3
Regional Breakdown of Interviews




(n98)
N Achieved/actualinterviews
(n436)
(n249)
(n290)
(n241)
(n273)
(n314)
(n104)
(n1200)
(n311)
(n204)
(n146)
(n191)
(n163)
(n111)
Achieved Weighted
Kurdish Capital 5.0 5.5 North 32.9 34.2 B
aghdad 23.4 23.9
Central 15.0 13.2
Mid Shia 7.3 7.3
South 16.4 15.9
(n115)
(n242)
(n356)
4
Sample




Gender Male 50Female 50 Age 18-24 years 22
25-34 years 30 35-44 years 23 45-54 years 1
6
55 years 10
Currently Employed Yes 40No 59 Education N
one 14 Primary school 24 Intermediate schoo
l 21 Secondary 17 Diploma 13 Baccalaureat
e 10 Post-graduate 1
NationalityArab 82Kurd 16Other 2
Religion Sunni Muslim 42Shia Muslim 50Musl
im (unspec.) 7Other 1
5
Reasons for Bush Sending 20,000
TroopsSPONTANEOUS RESPONSE




Q . President George Bush has announced that he
will be sending 20,000 troops to Iraq in the
coming months. Why do you think he is doing
this? Base All respondents n5019
6
One in Two Believe Security Will Improve When
Troops Withdrawal




TOTAL
SUNNI
SHIA
BAGHDAD
SOUTH
NORTH
CENTRAL
MID SHIA
KURDISHCAPITAL
Q . And thinking ahead, do you believe that the
security situation in Iraq will get better or
worse in the immediate weeks following a
withdrawal of Multi National Forces? Base All
respondents n5019
7
One in Four Had Family Member Murdered




15 amongst Sunnis 34 amongst Shias
23 in Baghdad
21 Baghdad 54 North60 South58 Central 50
Mid Shia
100 Kurdish
Q Which of the following have you personally
experienced or personally witnessed over the
previous three years? Base All respondents
n5019
8
Opinion divided on Civil War




Iraq is in a state of civil war
Iraq is close to a state ofcivil war but not in
one yet
Iraq is still some wayfrom civil war
I dont think Iraqwill ever get as far as
civil war
Dont Know/Refused
Q Which of the following comes closest to your
own opinion about the state of Iraq at the
moment? Base All respondents n5019
9
Views on a Federal Iraq?




57 amongst Sunnis 69 amongst Shias
72 amongst Kurds
Q On balance, which of the following
alternatives would you prefer for the future of
Iraq? Base All respondents n5019

10
Plurality Support al-Malikis New Security Plan




Yes
Dont know
No

• Almost one in two (45) believe that embattled
  Prime Minister Noori al-Malikis new security
  plan will disarm all militias. Support as you
  would expect amongst the Shia population
  (61),although it even attracts support from 26
  of Sunnis.
• Perhaps where it matters the most, in Baghdad,
  49 back the new plan with only 9 saying no.
  Two in five (41) are undecided.
  
• Amongst those that say no, 25 believe that
  this will not be achieved as there are corrupt
  individuals existing inside the security forces
  while 22 feel militias exist inside the
  government

Q Noori al-Malikis government has announced
a new security plan which they say will disarm
all militias? Do you believe that it
will do so? Base All respondents n5,019
11
One in Four Have Been Displaced




Yes theyve moved outside Iraq
Yes but theyve moved to Kurdish areas
No
Refused

• One in seven (15) Iraqis have had a family
  member flee their country due to the security
  situation? This figure increases significantly
  to 35 amongst those living in Baghdad. By
  comparison, in Basrah the figure is just 2.

Q Do you have any members of your family
that have left Iraq over the previous four years
as a result of the security situation? Base All
respondents n5,019
12
Neighbouring Syria and Jordan Take Influx




Sunni Shia Baghdad North
Base (370) (295) (416) (228)
Syria 53 47 49 56 Jordan 17 21 25 8 UAE
10 10 9 12 Egypt 8 11 11 7
Q And in which country/countries do they now
live? Base All respondents n765

13
Only One in Four Prefer Return to Previous Regime




Total (n5019)
49
Things are better for usunder the current
system
Sunni (n2043)
29
66
Shia (n2571)
Total
26
Things are better for usunder the previous
regime of Saddam Hussein
Sunni
51
Shia
6
Total
16
?
Neither they are just as badas each other
Sunni
11
Shia
20
Q Taking everything into account, do you feel
that things are better for you now under the
present political system or do you think things
were better for you before under the previous
regime of Saddam Hussein?
Q . Do you approve or disapprove of the way XX is
handling his job as Prime Minister / President?"
14








For further analysis or comment please contact
Johnny Heald 44 207 611 5270
34 Bedford Row, London WC1R 4JH ? Tel 0207 6
11 5270 ? Fax [phone]
34 Bedford Row, London WC1R 4JH ? Tel [phone]
5270 ? Fax [phone] ? www.opinion.co.uk