Japan and Taiwan

1
Japan and Taiwan

• Pushing the Limits
• Brian Bridges

2
Legacies of History

• 1. First step in Japanese colonial empire
• - modernity but exploitation
• - Japanization but Taiwanese consciousness
  stimulated
  
• 2. 1952 Japan-ROC Peace Treaty tourism and
  trade
  
• 3. Nixon shock and Japanese recognition of PRC
  strategic and economic concerns

3
Informal Relations

• Economic and human ties remained, even though
  diplomatic set-back for Taiwan
  
• Japan kept working relations of a
  non-governmental nature, using Japan Interchange
  Association as embassy
  
• Politicians contacts between Kuomintang (KMT)
  and Japans ruling Liberal Democratic Party
  (LDP)
  

4
Taiwanese Dynamics (I)

• Rise of locally-born Taiwanese within KMT,
  leading to Lee Teng-hui
  
• becoming President
• strong personal links to Japan
• encouraged economic and cultural links with Japan
  
  
• charm offensive

5
Taiwanese Dynamics (II)

• From 2000, Chen Shui-bian as President
• nostalgic view of Japan from
  pro-independence supporters (DPP)
  
• - more assertive approach to pull Japan to
  Taiwans side, even suggesting a Japanese version
  of the USs Taiwan Relations Act and a
  semi-strategic partnership shared
• - Taiwanese publics preference for status
  quo but with more international space

6
Quietly Up-grading Relations

• Politicians and officials visiting each way more
  frequently and at higher level of seniority
  
• From 2003 Interchange Association in Taipei
  formally celebrated Emperors birthday
  
• Unofficial defence/military contacts through
  academic conferences

7
The Japanese Approach

• After 1972, Japan pursued official relations
  with PRC and unofficial relations with Taiwan
  (ROC).
  
• Japan promoted a one China policy, but was
  reluctant to sign up to the so-called three
  nos
  
• Japan had no wish for Taiwan to be absorbed into
  PRC, but did not want to be directly entangled
  

8
Japans Interests in Better Contacts (I)

• Pro-Taiwan politicians within LDP rising to
  greater prominence
  
• Decline of pro-PRC opposition parties (and new
  major party, Democratic Party, also favourable to
  Taiwan)
  
• Japanese sympathy for Taiwanese democracy
• Trade/investment benefits from Taiwan market for
  Japanese companies rising
  

9
Japans Interests in Better Contacts (II)

• Japanese media more active and growing popular
  Japanese interest in Taiwanese food and tourism
  
• Greater concern about peace and stability in the
  Taiwan Straits wake-up call of 1995-96 crisis
  1997 guidelines for Japan-US defence cooperation
  2005 Japan-US statement pushing against the
  constitutional limitations

10
Limitations and Constraints (I)

• The China factor
• For PRC a strengthened Japan-Taiwan relationship
  encourages Taiwanese independence tendencies
  warnings to Japan not to cross the line in
  contacts
• Sino-Japanese relations becoming increasingly
  complex and during Koizumi era characterised by
  economically hot, politically cold but Japan
  needs China market more ?

11
Limitations and Constraints (II)

• The US factor
• Influence of US Asian policy on Japans foreign
  policy US wishes to maintain a balance across
  the Taiwan Straits and does not want to see
  either Taiwan or PRC (or Japan) upset that
  situation
• Any military confrontation across the Straits
  would bring in Japan bases on Japanese soil
  would be used by any US forces involved

12
Japanese Policy Perspectives

• Form of quasi-alignment with Taiwan
• - Japan wishes to show support for Taiwan,
  but not in such an unambiguous manner that
  Taiwanese expectations are of Japanese support in
  any circumstances
• - No alliance despite both sides sharing a
  common adversary and a close relationship with
  a common fourth power

13
Two Sides of the Same Coin?

• In March 2006, Chen said that Taiwan-Japan
  relations were at their closest since the two
  sides broke official relations in 1972.
  
• The previous April (2005) a senior Chinese
  official said that Sino-Japanese relations were
  at their lowest level since 1972.

14
Going Forward

• Domestic change in both Japan and Taiwan
• - Abe pragmatism and power (normal)
• - March 2008 Taiwanese presidential elections
  (Ma and KMT to win?) ongoing debate on
  Taiwanese identity
  
• Chinese leaders perspectives
• - cannot allow Taiwan to slip away
• US presidential changes (US-China tension?)