Science, theory of evolution by natural selection, and

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PowerPoint 2 Science, theory of evolution by
natural selection, and human population
dynamics.
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INTRODUCTION

• I P A T implies Cause and Effect
• Neo vs Non-Malthusian Theory
• Neo is population-centered (cause)
• Non sees population as an intermediate

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INTERMEDIATE

• Dependent Variable varies as Independent Variable
  changes
• Intermediate variables affect/are affected by
  Primary Factors
• Example of Population as a IV

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SO WHAT

• Future State of the World according to
• Optimist
• Pessimist
• What if the the optimist is wrong
• What if the pessimist is wrong
• Risks, Investments, Effects

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CARRYING CAPACITIES

• Ability to sustain the population
• Resources
• Sinks
• Figures 7-4 through 7-9

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ESTIMATES

• Estimates vary from 2 to 1000 billion
• Most resource estimates vary between 8 and 16
• Most consider single factor (Room ,Water, Food,
  etc)
• Multiple-dependency estimates are lower (Food and
  Water)
• Conditions or assumptions are often fatal (All
  oil used to distribute food, No military, etc)
• Useful tool to decide value, ethical, right
  sharing issues

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ONE EXAMPLE

• World Hunger Project
• If all resources devoted to growing and
  distributing food and if everyone were a
  vegetarian, the planetary ecosystem and current
  technology can support 5.5 billion.
• From 1950 to 1984, the Green Revolution increased
  world grain output 2.6 fold
• To support 10 billion means tripling the caloric
  budget.
• What does this mean? what do we need?

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GLOBAL COMMONS

• Concept of the Commons
• Atmosphere - GCC, Ozone, Law of the Air
• Water - Quality and Quantity, Law of the Seas
• Biodiversity - Product of 3,000,000,000 years
• International Stewardship Territories -
  Antarctica, Space
• Global Economy
• The Tragedy of the Commons

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DUAL CRISIS AND ETHICS

• Increasing World Debt
• Decreasing Environmental Quality
• Irreversibility
• Right Sharing of Resources (GINI Coefficient)

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ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT

• Analogous to Carrying Capacity
• American Life Style requires 5 planets
• American Energy requires 13

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NUMBERS

• Abstract vs Real
• How many is a billion if the class is 102
• Increase Births - Deaths

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THE NUMBERS PAST

• AGE DATE NUMBER (B) 2X TIME/ADD B
• Stone 10,000 BCE .06 8000
• Bronze 2,000 BCE
  .12 2000
• Iron 0 .25 1650
• Middle 1650 .50 200
• Renaissance 1850 1.0 80 (2X Add)
• Agriculture 1930 2.0 30
• Industry 1960 3.0 15
• Medicine 1975 4.0 12
• Max. Growth 1987 5.0 12
• Begin Slow 1999 6.0 ?

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THE NUMBERS PRSENT

• WWW.POPIN.ORG/6BILLION/F1.HTM

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THE NUMBERS FUTURE

• Optimists View
• YEAR B Doubling
• 1999 6 15
• 2014 7 30
• 2044 8 80
• 2124 9 200

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THE NUMBERS FUTURE 2 Pessimists View

• 1999 6.0 12
• 2011 7.0 15
• 2026 8.0 30
• 2056 9.0 80
• 2135 10.0 200 The end of J and the beginning
  of S. The shape of S depends upon how soon ZPG.
  ZPG Birth Death and Fertility Replacement

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PROJECTIONS BASED UPON ZPG

• If 1970s 5 Billion
• If 1980s 7 Billion
• If 2000s 9 Billion
• If 2020s 11 Billion
• If 2040s 15 Billion
• Natural Demographic Momentum

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UN PROJECTIONS, PAST VS PRESENT

• Past
• Highs were Exponential
• Medium then was 14 then 12 Billion
• Low was 4 to 8 Billion
• Present
• High is no longer exponential
• Medium is 9 to 11 Billion
• Low is still 4 Billion just Later

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UN BEST ESTIMATES

• 2000 6.055B 2.5X 1950 (2.4B)
• 2013 7B
• 2028 8B
• 2050 8.909B 1.5X 2000
• 2054 9B
• 2100 10B

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SHIFTS

• 1900 Europe 3X Africa
• 2050 Africa 3X Europe
• Implications

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WHERE THE NUMBERS COME FROM

• Cohort Components
• Population Pyramids www.popin.org/6billion/f3.htm
• Figure 9-11
• Stable, Shrinking, and Growing Structures
• Aberrant Ratios

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DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM

• Gross Global Annual Recruitment Rate (GGARR) 1.7
• Doubling Times (170y, 235y, 324y, 417y)
• 6,000,000,000 X 1.7 102,000,000/y /m/d/h/m
• GGARR B-D 384,615/d - 144,505/d
• GGARR BR- DR 2.7 - 1.0 1.7

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UN SCENARIOS

• Slow 1.55-1.59
• Medium 2.05-2.09 (Replacement)
• Fast 2.55-2.59
• www.popin.org/6billion/f2.htm
• www.popin.org/longrange/lrfir1.htm

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GREYING OF THE POPULATION

• Life Expectancy Now 2050 2150
• Males 71 74 83
• Females 74 79 88
• Less than 1 over 80 now, over 10 in 2150
• www.popin.org/6billion/f4.htm
• Figure 9-14

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WHERE IS THE GROWTH?

• Theory of Demographic Transition
• Stage 1 High Birth Rate and commensurate High
  Death Rate (Past and LDCs)
• Stage 2 Death Rate Falls but Birth Rate Stays
  High (Mortality Transition)
• Stage 3 Birth Rate Falls (Fertility Transition)
• Stage 4 Low Birth Rate and Commensurate Low Death
  Rate (Now in MDCs)
• Stage 5 Even Lower Birth Rate so NPG (Future? And
  Some European Nations)

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WHERE IS THE GROWTH 2

• Many Nations in All Five Stages
• Slow vs Fast, MDC vs LDC, First vs Third, N vs S
• Figure 9-9
• Figure 9-3

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WHERE IS THE GROWTH 3

• SlowREGION POP GARR STABLE
  () West Europe 159 0.02 North
  America 278 0.07 Former USSR 291 0.90 377
  32 Australia 17 0.80

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WHERE IS THE GROWTH 4

• Fast Pop Rate Stable
• China 1120 1.4 1571 45 S.E.Asia 455 2.1 L
  atin America 447 2.1 India 853 2.1 1700
  100 West Asia 132 2.8 200 Africa 661 2.9 3000
  5X

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SO WHAT

• R vs K Reproductive Strategies
• Carrying Capacity (Sources and Sinks)
• GINI Index
• Richest and Poorest move farther apart

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EXAMPLES

• Energy 2X 4X
• Land Food
• Water
• Air Pollution
• Biodiversity

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SO WHAT ? 2

• 1. Population growth is accompanied by
  disproportionately more resource use
• 2. As distance from core increases, density
  decreases but rate of growth increases
• 3. Rapid extra-urbanization and inner-urban decay
  are mirror images

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WHAT SPRAWL REALLY MEANS

• If population rises
• Disproportionately more land is used
• To accommodate disproportionately more ad larger
  dwellings
• Which require disproportionately more vehicles
  and miles and killowatts
• All requiring disproportionately more energy

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SO WHAT? COSTS

• In many countries and regions the population is
  directly related to
• Inversely to Growth of GNP 1.6 to 4.9
• Inversely to Index of Food Production per Capita
  
• 72 to 138 with 1000 as 1967 rate
• Inversely to Life Expectancy 36 to 77
• Infant Mortality Rates 6/1000 to 207/1000
• Number in School 2 to 100
• Literacy Rate 10 to 99.9
• Medical Care, Access to Clean Water, Etc. 0 to
  ?

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SOLUTIONS

• Population Control Hierarchy Infanticide,
  Abortion, Sterilization, Contraception, Other
• Government Policy, Economic Development
• Education, Health Care
• Family, Ethics, Role of Women

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OVERALL COMPARISON

• More vs Less Developed Nations
• Population 1B vs 5B
• Rate 0.5-1.5 vs gt2.0
• Urban 3/4 vs 1/3
• Income 15,000 vs lt800
• 1B ,1/d and 1Blt2/d

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STATE OF THE WORLD

• Figures 9-17 thru 9-19